Europa dhe Rusia po ecin mbi nj\u00eb vij\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikshme dhe, n\u00ebse p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimi vazhdon me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin rit\u00ebm, nj\u00eb form\u00eb konflikti t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet e pashmangshme.<\/p>\n
Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrimi i Sergey Markov, politologut rus dhe ish-k\u00ebshilltarit t\u00eb Vladimir Putinit, i cili n\u00eb nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb p\u00ebr \u201cCorriere della Sera\u201d paraqet nj\u00eb nga skenar\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb zymt\u00eb p\u00ebr marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet mes Mosk\u00ebs dhe Europ\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Markov nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb v\u00ebzhgues neutral. Ai njihet p\u00ebr pozicionet e tij t\u00eb ashpra dhe p\u00ebr af\u00ebrsin\u00eb e dikurshme me strukturat e pushtetit rus. \u201cCorriere\u201d e p\u00ebrshkruan si nj\u00eb \u201csuper-fajkua\u201d t\u00eb politik\u00ebs ruse dhe ish-k\u00ebshilltar p\u00ebr \u00e7\u00ebshtjet e jashtme t\u00eb Putinit.<\/p>\n
Pik\u00ebrisht p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, deklaratat e tij duhen lexuar jo si njoftim i nj\u00eb plani zyrtar t\u00eb Kremlinit, por si tregues i m\u00ebnyr\u00ebs se si nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e establishmentit rus po e interpreton p\u00ebrplasjen me Per\u00ebndimin. Dhe mesazhi i Markov \u00ebsht\u00eb i fort\u00eb: Rusia dhe Europa, sipas tij, po afrohen drejt nj\u00eb pike ku kontrolli i p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimit mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\u201cPo ecim mbi tel\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n N\u00eb qend\u00ebr t\u00eb argumentit t\u00eb Markov \u00ebsht\u00eb bindja se Europa po i shtyn gradualisht kufijt\u00eb e asaj q\u00eb Moska konsideron t\u00eb pranueshme.<\/p>\n Sipas tij, strategjia europiane nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb kalimi i menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm i nj\u00eb \u201cvije t\u00eb kuqe\u201d, por dob\u00ebsimi gradual i saj p\u00ebrmes nj\u00eb serie hapash t\u00eb vegj\u00ebl.<\/p>\n Markov e krahason k\u00ebt\u00eb me nj\u00eb strategji t\u00eb \u201cnj\u00eb mij\u00eb hapave\u201d: secili ve\u00e7mas nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb aq i madh sa t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje t\u00eb menj\u00ebhershme ruse, por t\u00eb gjitha s\u00eb bashku, sipas tij, e \u00e7ojn\u00eb p\u00ebrplasjen drejt nj\u00eb pike pa kthim. Ai pretendon se Europa po mb\u00ebshtetet n\u00eb supozimin se Rusia nuk do t\u00eb reagoj\u00eb ushtarakisht. Por paralajm\u00ebron se ky kalkulim mund t\u00eb d\u00ebshtoj\u00eb.<\/p>\n N\u00ebse kursi aktual i p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimit vazhdon, argumenton Markov, \u201cnj\u00eb form\u00eb lufte\u201d mes Rusis\u00eb dhe Europ\u00ebs mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet e pashmangshme.<\/p>\n A mund t\u00eb godas\u00eb Rusia nj\u00eb vend t\u00eb NATO-s?<\/strong><\/p>\n Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb pyetja q\u00eb prej fillimit t\u00eb luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb ka q\u00ebndruar mbi tryezat e qeverive europiane. Dhe p\u00ebrgjigjja e Markov \u00ebsht\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuese.<\/p>\n Sipas tij, Putini mund t\u00eb gjendet n\u00eb nj\u00eb situat\u00eb ku Moska mendon se duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjet ushtarakisht, pasi n\u00eb interpretimin rus Europa \u00ebsht\u00eb tashm\u00eb e p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb konflikt indirekt kund\u00ebr Federat\u00ebs Ruse. Markov p\u00ebrmend presionin ndaj transportit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs ruse dhe masat europiane kund\u00ebr anijeve t\u00eb lidhura me tregtin\u00eb ruse si shembuj t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj p\u00ebrplasjeje. Por m\u00eb pas shkon shum\u00eb m\u00eb tej.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb nga skenar\u00ebt q\u00eb ai e konsideron m\u00eb realist \u00ebsht\u00eb bllokimi nga Rusia i ngushticave n\u00eb Detin Baltik. Nj\u00eb l\u00ebvizje e till\u00eb do t\u00eb ishte jasht\u00ebzakonisht e rrezikshme.<\/p>\n Baltiku \u00ebsht\u00eb sot praktikisht nj\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb e rrethuar nga vende an\u00ebtare t\u00eb NATO-s, me p\u00ebrjashtim t\u00eb brigjeve ruse. Finlanda dhe Suedia iu bashkuan Aleanc\u00ebs pas pushtimit rus t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs, duke ndryshuar ndjesh\u00ebm ekuilibrin strategjik t\u00eb rajonit.<\/p>\n \u00c7do p\u00ebrpjekje ruse p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyr\u00eb ushtarakisht n\u00eb korridoret detare t\u00eb Baltikut mund t\u00eb sillte forcat ruse n\u00eb kontakt t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb me vendet e NATO-s.<\/p>\n Dhe pik\u00ebrisht k\u00ebtu q\u00ebndron rreziku i v\u00ebrtet\u00eb: jo domosdoshm\u00ebrisht nj\u00eb vendim i planifikuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb nisur luft\u00ebn, por nj\u00eb incident q\u00eb shkakton nj\u00eb zinxhir reagimesh t\u00eb pakontrollueshme.<\/p>\n Fabrikat e dron\u00ebve, skenari tjet\u00ebr i rreziksh\u00ebm<\/strong><\/p>\n Markov ngre edhe nj\u00eb skenar tjet\u00ebr. Rusia, sipas tij, mund t\u00eb vendos\u00eb t\u00eb godas\u00eb objektet ku prodhohen dron\u00eb t\u00eb destinuar p\u00ebr ushtrin\u00eb ukrainase. N\u00eb territorin ukrainas, infrastruktura e industris\u00eb ushtarake \u00ebsht\u00eb prej koh\u00ebsh objektiv i sulmeve ruse. Por Markov sugjeron se objektiva t\u00eb till\u00eb mund t\u00eb konsiderohen nga Moska edhe jasht\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs. Ky do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb ndryshim dramatik.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb goditje ruse ndaj territorit t\u00eb nj\u00eb shteti t\u00eb NATO-s do t\u00eb ngrinte menj\u00ebher\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtjen e mbrojtjes kolektive t\u00eb Aleanc\u00ebs dhe nenit 5 t\u00eb Traktatit t\u00eb Atlantikut t\u00eb Veriut. Prandaj deklarata e Markov duhet par\u00eb edhe si pjes\u00eb e strategjis\u00eb s\u00eb presionit dhe frik\u00ebsimit q\u00eb Moska p\u00ebrdor prej vitesh ndaj vendeve europiane.<\/p>\n Nuk ka prova publike q\u00eb Rusia ka marr\u00eb nj\u00eb vendim p\u00ebr t\u00eb goditur fabrika n\u00eb territorin e NATO-s. Por fakti q\u00eb skenar\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb artikulohen publikisht nga figura pran\u00eb bot\u00ebs politike ruse tregon nivelin e tensionit q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb krijuar.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb luft\u00eb q\u00eb nuk zhvillohet vet\u00ebm n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb<\/strong><\/p>\n P\u00ebrplasja Rusi-Per\u00ebndim nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb nuk kufizohet m\u00eb vet\u00ebm te fusha klasike e betej\u00ebs. Vendet europiane kan\u00eb raportuar gjat\u00eb viteve t\u00eb fundit sulme kibernetike, sabotime, operacione spiunazhi, nd\u00ebrhyrje me dron\u00eb dhe incidente kund\u00ebr infrastruktur\u00ebs kritike, nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e t\u00eb cilave autoritetet per\u00ebndimore i kan\u00eb lidhur ose dyshojn\u00eb se lidhen me Rusin\u00eb. Kjo hap\u00ebsir\u00eb mes paqes dhe luft\u00ebs s\u00eb hapur njihet si \u201czona gri\u201d.<\/p>\n Problemi \u00ebsht\u00eb se sa m\u00eb shum\u00eb shtohen operacionet e tilla, aq m\u00eb i madh b\u00ebhet rreziku q\u00eb nj\u00eb incident t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb viktima ose d\u00ebme t\u00eb tilla sa nj\u00eb qeveri europiane t\u00eb ndihet e detyruar t\u00eb reagoj\u00eb.<\/p>\n N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kuptim, paralajm\u00ebrimi i Markov prek nj\u00eb problem real strategjik, edhe n\u00ebse interpretimi i tij p\u00ebr p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebsin\u00eb europiane pasqyron qart\u00eb k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrimin rus.<\/p>\n \u00c7far\u00eb mendojn\u00eb rus\u00ebt p\u00ebr Europ\u00ebn?<\/strong><\/p>\n Nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht interesante e intervist\u00ebs lidhet me ndryshimin e perceptimit t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs brenda shoq\u00ebris\u00eb ruse. Sipas Markov, p\u00ebr nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb ruse, Europa tashm\u00eb perceptohet si armike.<\/p>\n N\u00eb narrativ\u00ebn q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb konsoliduar n\u00eb Rusi, periudha e bashk\u00ebpunimit me Europ\u00ebn pas r\u00ebnies s\u00eb Bashkimit Sovjetik shihet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb si nj\u00eb p\u00ebrjashtim historik. Ndryshe \u00ebsht\u00eb situata mes intelektual\u00ebve rus\u00eb.<\/p>\n Markov thot\u00eb se nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e tyre vazhdon ta shoh\u00eb Europ\u00ebn si model shoq\u00ebror dhe shpreson q\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet t\u00eb normalizohen nj\u00eb dit\u00eb. Shum\u00eb m\u00eb pesimist\u00eb jan\u00eb, sipas tij, biznesmen\u00ebt dhe oligark\u00ebt rus\u00eb. Ata nuk besojn\u00eb se marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet ekonomike mes Rusis\u00eb dhe Europ\u00ebs do t\u00eb kthehen n\u00eb nivelin q\u00eb ekzistonte p\u00ebrpara luft\u00ebs.<\/p>\n N\u00ebse kjo analiz\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e sakt\u00eb, lufta n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb nuk ka ndryshuar vet\u00ebm kufijt\u00eb e siguris\u00eb europiane. Ajo ka krijuar edhe nj\u00eb ndarje psikologjike dhe ekonomike q\u00eb mund t\u00eb zgjas\u00eb p\u00ebr dekada.<\/p>\n Rusia mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet edhe m\u00eb autoritare<\/p>\n Markov nuk parashikon nj\u00eb kolaps t\u00eb sistemit rus p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb luft\u00ebs s\u00eb konsumimit n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. P\u00ebrkundrazi. N\u00ebse presioni ekonomik dhe ushtarak rritet, sipas tij, Kremlini do t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjet duke forcuar m\u00eb tej kontrollin e shtetit. Kjo do t\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptonte m\u00eb shum\u00eb autoritariz\u00ebm n\u00eb politik\u00eb, por edhe nd\u00ebrhyrje m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe shtet\u00ebrore n\u00eb ekonomi.<\/p>\n Markov p\u00ebrmend masa q\u00eb i japin shtetit mund\u00ebsi m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb kontroll t\u00eb p\u00ebrkohsh\u00ebm mbi kompani q\u00eb konsiderohen t\u00eb pap\u00ebrgatitura p\u00ebr t\u2019u mbrojtur nga sulmet me dron\u00eb ose raketa. Mesazhi \u00ebsht\u00eb i qart\u00eb: n\u00eb vend q\u00eb presioni i luft\u00ebs ta liberalizoj\u00eb sistemin rus, ai mund t\u00eb prodhoj\u00eb efektin e kund\u00ebrt.<\/p>\n Vizita e shefit t\u00eb CIA-s n\u00eb Mosk\u00eb<\/strong><\/p>\n Intervista vjen vet\u00ebm pak dit\u00eb pas nj\u00eb zhvillimi shum\u00eb dometh\u00ebn\u00ebs. Drejtori i CIA-s, John Ratcliffe, zhvilloi k\u00ebt\u00eb jav\u00eb bisedime n\u00eb Mosk\u00eb me kreun e sh\u00ebrbimit rus t\u00eb inteligjenc\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme, Sergei Naryshkin.<\/p>\n Vet\u00eb Naryshkin konfirmoi se ishte zhvilluar nj\u00eb takim pune, por as Moska dhe as Uashingtoni nuk kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb publike p\u00ebrmbajtjen e plot\u00eb t\u00eb diskutimeve.<\/p>\n N\u00eb mediat amerikane \u00ebsht\u00eb raportuar se vizita mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb edhe nj\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrim p\u00ebr Mosk\u00ebn q\u00eb t\u00eb mos sulmoj\u00eb nj\u00eb vend an\u00ebtar t\u00eb NATO-s, por kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb konfirmuar zyrtarisht. Markov e interpreton ndryshe l\u00ebvizjen.<\/p>\n Sipas tij, Donald Trump k\u00ebrkon mbi t\u00eb gjitha t\u00eb shmang\u00eb nj\u00eb situat\u00eb ku Shtetet e Bashkuara mund t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqen n\u00eb nj\u00eb konfrontim b\u00ebrthamor me Rusin\u00eb. Ai mendon gjithashtu se presidenti amerikan nuk d\u00ebshiron q\u00eb Ukraina t\u00eb konsumoj\u00eb burime gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb buxhetit amerikan. Edhe k\u00ebtu b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr interpretimin e Markov dhe jo p\u00ebr nj\u00eb deklarat\u00eb t\u00eb administrat\u00ebs amerikane.<\/p>\n Por nga Finlanda vjen nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb krejt tjet\u00ebr<\/strong><\/p>\n N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb q\u00eb Markov flet p\u00ebr nj\u00eb luft\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb mundshme, nga nj\u00eb prej vendeve q\u00eb ndan kufirin m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb t\u00eb NATO-s me Rusin\u00eb vjen nj\u00eb vler\u00ebsim shum\u00eb m\u00eb pak alarmues.<\/p>\n Presidenti finlandez Alexander Stubb deklaroi se nuk beson se Moska do t\u00eb rrezikoj\u00eb t\u00eb sulmoj\u00eb nj\u00eb vend t\u00eb NATO-s.<\/p>\n Argumenti i tij \u00ebsht\u00eb i thjesht\u00eb: Rusia e di fuqin\u00eb konvencionale dhe b\u00ebrthamore t\u00eb Aleanc\u00ebs dhe nj\u00eb sulm i drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb do t\u00eb ishte jasht\u00ebzakonisht i kushtuesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n Stubb argumenton gjithashtu se Rusia vazhdon t\u00eb konsumoj\u00eb burime t\u00eb m\u00ebdha njer\u00ebzore dhe ushtarake n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb dhe nuk ka aktualisht kapacitetin p\u00ebr t\u00eb hapur nj\u00eb front t\u00eb dyt\u00eb madhor kund\u00ebr NATO-s.<\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, presidenti finlandez k\u00ebrkon q\u00eb Europa t\u00eb mbetet e p\u00ebrgatitur dhe e kujdesshme. Sipas tij, mb\u00ebshtetja e Ukrain\u00ebs mbetet nj\u00eb nga garancit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb siguris\u00eb s\u00eb kontinentit.<\/p>\n Rreziku m\u00eb i madh mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb gabim llogaritjeje<\/strong><\/p>\n Dy interpretimet \u2013 ai i Markov dhe ai i Stubb \u2013 tregojn\u00eb dilem\u00ebn me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn p\u00ebrballet Europa. Nj\u00ebri paralajm\u00ebron se p\u00ebrplasja po b\u00ebhet e pashmangshme. Tjetri thot\u00eb se Rusia nuk ka interes dhe as kapacitet t\u00eb hyj\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb direkte me NATO-n. Por ekziston nj\u00eb pik\u00eb ku k\u00ebto dy analiza takohen: rreziku i p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimit ekziston.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb incident n\u00eb Baltik, nj\u00eb sabotim me viktima, nj\u00eb raket\u00eb q\u00eb godet territorin e gabuar, nj\u00eb sulm ndaj infrastruktur\u00ebs kritike apo nj\u00eb keqinterpretim i l\u00ebvizjeve ushtarake mund t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe se ajo q\u00eb pal\u00ebt kishin synuar.<\/p>\n Historia e Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb tregoi se fuqit\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore nuk duhet domosdoshm\u00ebrisht t\u00eb d\u00ebshirojn\u00eb luft\u00ebn q\u00eb t\u00eb afrohen rreziksh\u00ebm pran\u00eb saj.<\/p>\n Dhe pik\u00ebrisht k\u00ebtu q\u00ebndron r\u00ebnd\u00ebsia e intervist\u00ebs s\u00eb Markov.<\/p>\n Jo sepse deklaratat e nj\u00eb ish-k\u00ebshilltari t\u00eb Putinit provojn\u00eb se Kremlini ka vendosur t\u00eb sulmoj\u00eb Europ\u00ebn. Por sepse tregojn\u00eb se n\u00eb Mosk\u00eb dhe n\u00eb kryeqytetet europiane po diskutohet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb hapur nj\u00eb skenar q\u00eb vet\u00ebm pak vite m\u00eb par\u00eb konsiderohej pothuajse i paimagjinuesh\u00ebm: nj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasje direkte mes Rusis\u00eb dhe NATO-s. Dhe n\u00eb nj\u00eb kontinent ku dy pal\u00ebt disponojn\u00eb arsenale b\u00ebrthamore, problemi nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm se kush d\u00ebshiron luft\u00eb.<\/p>\n Problemi \u00ebsht\u00eb se sa gjat\u00eb mund t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimi pa b\u00ebr\u00eb dikush gabimin q\u00eb e ndez at\u00eb.\/Corriere della Sera dhe\u00a0 Reuters<\/p>\n The post Ish-k\u00ebshilltari i Putinit paralajm\u00ebron Europ\u00ebn: Lufta me Rusin\u00eb po b\u00ebhet e pashmangshme<\/a> appeared first on GIJOTINA<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Europa dhe Rusia po ecin mbi nj\u00eb vij\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikshme dhe, n\u00ebse p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimi vazhdon me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin rit\u00ebm, nj\u00eb form\u00eb konflikti t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet e pashmangshme. Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrimi i Sergey Markov, politologut rus dhe ish-k\u00ebshilltarit t\u00eb Vladimir Putinit, i cili n\u00eb nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb p\u00ebr \u201cCorriere della Sera\u201d paraqet nj\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-98316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98316\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}