Nga Stephen S. Roach, Project Syndicate<\/p>\n
Mes nj\u00eb serie gafash masive politikash t\u00eb paligjshme, presidenti amerikan Donald Trump e ka kthyer v\u00ebmendjen drejt stabilizimit t\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve me Presidentin kinez Xi Jinping n\u00eb samitin e majit. Por me gjas\u00eb gj\u00ebrat do t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb keq, pasi Trump nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb i aft\u00eb t\u00eb kuptoj\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsin\u00eb e strategjis\u00eb, nj\u00eb m\u00ebsim q\u00eb udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit e Kin\u00ebs e kan\u00eb kuptuar prej koh\u00ebsh.<\/p>\n
Thashethemet flasin se vjet, Donald Trump e vonoi tarif\u00ebn e tij t\u00eb ashtuquajtur t\u00eb Dit\u00ebs s\u00eb \u00c7lirimit me nj\u00eb dit\u00eb, p\u00ebr ta nxjerr\u00eb m\u00eb 2 prill, pasi nuk donte q\u00eb \u201cemergjenca\u201d e tij tregtare jokushtetuese t\u00eb perceptohej si g\u00ebnjesht\u00ebr e 1 prillit. K\u00ebt\u00eb vit, Trump e shp\u00ebrfilli kalendarin me nj\u00eb fjalim para kombit m\u00eb 1 prill, duke proklamuar nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr akt jokeshtues \u2013 nj\u00eb luft\u00eb me Iranin e nisur pa aprovimin e Kongresit.<\/p>\n
T\u00eb dyja l\u00ebvizjet kan\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebta, pasi jo vet\u00ebm q\u00eb shp\u00ebrfillin ligjet, por jan\u00eb si nj\u00eb hesht\u00eb e ngulur n\u00eb zem\u00ebr t\u00eb rendit bot\u00ebror. Vjet shoku i tarifave shenjestroi sistemin bot\u00ebror t\u00eb tregtis\u00eb s\u00eb bazuar tek rregullat \u2013 nj\u00eb sistem i vendosur nga SHBA-t\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrkaq, shoku i sivjetsh\u00ebm ushtarak shenjestron Lindjen e Mesme, q\u00eb prej koh\u00ebsh \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb nga rajonet m\u00eb t\u00eb brishta t\u00eb bot\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Trump i kreu k\u00ebto akte t\u00eb shkujdesura pa kurrfar\u00eb shqet\u00ebsimi rreth pasojave q\u00eb mund t\u00eb sillnin. Si\u00e7 pritej, t\u00eb dyja po i kthehen pas furish\u00ebm. Pavar\u00ebsisht tarifave \u201creciproke\u201d ndaj partner\u00ebve t\u00eb supozuar abuziv\u00eb t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs, deficiti tregtar i SHBA-s\u00eb arriti nj\u00eb rekord t\u00eb ri n\u00eb 2025. Dhe pavar\u00ebsisht gjith\u00eb mburrjes rreth shkat\u00ebrrimit t\u00eb fuqis\u00eb ushtarake t\u00eb Iranit, raketat dhe dron\u00ebt iranian\u00eb vijojn\u00eb t\u00eb shkaktojn\u00eb kaos n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, nd\u00ebrsa bllokimi strategjik nga ana e tyre e Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit ka \u00e7uar n\u00eb nj\u00eb nga tronditjet m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha bot\u00ebrore t\u00eb tregut t\u00eb naft\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Mes k\u00ebtyre d\u00ebshtimeve, Trump e ka kthyer v\u00ebmendjen nga stabilizimi i marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve dhe nd\u00ebrtimi i nj\u00eb raporti me Kin\u00ebn, konkurrenten m\u00eb t\u00eb eg\u00ebr ekonomike t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs. Kjo ka n\u00ebnkuptuar gjeste p\u00ebrul\u00ebse p\u00ebr ruajtur samitin e ardhsh\u00ebm me Presidentin kinez Xi Jinping, t\u00eb fiksuar p\u00ebr data 14 dhe 15 maj. Pasi e shtyu nj\u00eb her\u00eb takimin p\u00ebr shkak to nd\u00ebrlikimeve nga lufta e tij e zgjedhur, Trump \u00ebsht\u00eb kaq i d\u00ebshp\u00ebruar p\u00ebr t\u00eb arritur nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje me \u201cmikun e tij t\u00eb mir\u00eb,\u201d sa q\u00eb s\u00eb fundi i dor\u00ebzoi Kin\u00ebs nj\u00eb trafikant droge n\u00eb shenj\u00eb mir\u00ebbesimi. T\u00eb tjer\u00eb pretendojn\u00eb se kalendari i samitit \u00ebsht\u00eb zgjatur p\u00ebr t\u2019i mund\u00ebsuar Trumpit nj\u00eb udh\u00ebtim triumphal n\u00eb Pekin pasi t\u00eb ket\u00eb shpallur fitoren ndaj Iranit.<\/p>\n
Cilado qoft\u00eb arsyeja, Amerika do t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb disavantazh t\u00eb duksh\u00ebm gjat\u00eb k\u00ebtij samiti. Trumpit, shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr se sa Xi, i duhet nj\u00eb fitore. Udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsi kinez \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00ebse i k\u00ebnaqur t\u00eb rrij\u00eb e t\u00eb shoh\u00eb se si homologu i tij vet\u00ebposht\u00ebrohet.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb perspektiv\u00eb m\u00eb e thell\u00eb mund t\u00eb gjendet n\u00eb k\u00ebshill\u00ebn e Sun Tzu-s\u00eb, filozofit-luft\u00ebtar t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs antike. Tek \u201cArti i Luft\u00ebs,\u201d ai thekson se, \u201ckur strategjia jote \u00ebsht\u00eb e thell\u00eb dhe me ndikim t\u00eb gjer\u00eb\u2026 mund t\u00eb fitosh para se lufta t\u00eb ket\u00eb nisur.\u201d Kjo padyshim vlen p\u00ebr Xi dhe gatishm\u00ebrin\u00eb e tij p\u00ebr t\u00eb v\u00ebzhguar m\u00eb shum\u00eb se sa p\u00ebr t\u2019iu kund\u00ebrv\u00ebn\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtarit t\u00eb tij. Por vlen gjithashtu edhe p\u00ebr Trumpin dhe munges\u00ebn e planifikimit nga ana e tij kur shpalli nj\u00eb emergjenc\u00eb tregtare t\u00eb rreme dhe nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb paligjshme.<\/p>\n
Irani, nga ana e vet, e kupton r\u00ebnd\u00ebsin\u00eb e strategjis\u00eb. Pavar\u00ebsisht se vuan humbjen e lidershipit dhe d\u00ebme serioze nga fushata e bombardimeve amerikano-izraelite, Irani ruan nj\u00eb avantazh strategjik me kontrollin q\u00eb ushtron n\u00eb Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit. Pyetja e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb se p\u00ebrse SHBA-t\u00eb nuk e parashikuan di\u00e7ka t\u00eb till\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Mos shkoni m\u00eb larg se sa Strategjia e Re e Siguris\u00eb, e publikuar nj\u00eb vit m\u00eb par\u00eb nga administrata Trump. N\u00eb dokumentin prej 29 faqesh, fjala \u201cIran\u201d shfaqet vet\u00ebm tri her\u00eb. Sigurisht, fiksimi drit\u00ebshkurt\u00ebr i Trump-it me taktikat e shkat\u00ebrrimit mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00ebfar\u00eb lidhjeje me k\u00ebt\u00eb. Por p\u00ebrse ai nuk mendoi n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb strategjike para se t\u00eb vepronte impulsivisht?<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrgjigjia mund t\u00eb gjendet tek theksi q\u00eb Sun Tzu i jep r\u00ebnd\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb k\u00ebshillave. Trump vepron mbi baz\u00ebn e humorit personal. Ai preferon t\u00eb rrethohet nga njer\u00ebz lajkatar\u00eb dhe jo nga nd\u00ebrmjet\u00ebs t\u00eb sinqert\u00eb q\u00eb nuk tremben t\u2019i thon\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00ebn pushtetit. P\u00ebrqesh\u00ebs ndaj ekspert\u00ebve, Trumpi ka deklaruar se lufta do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj kur \u201ct\u00eb ma ndiejn\u00eb kockat e mia.\u201d Kur argumentonte p\u00ebr disiplin\u00ebn dhe arsyen, Sun Tzu shkruante: \u201cVler\u00ebso avantazhet n\u00eb marrjen e k\u00ebshillave, pastaj strukturoji forcat sipas nevoj\u00ebs\u2026 strategjikisht, bazuar tek ajo q\u00eb t\u00eb jep avantazhin.\u201d<\/p>\n
Por, nj\u00eb perosn i fokusuar tek ujdit\u00eb si Donald Trump, nuk ka asnj\u00eb esht\u00ebr strategjike n\u00eb trupin e tij. Ai thekson numrin e luft\u00ebrave q\u00eb pretendon se ka p\u00ebrfunduar (dhjet\u00eb sipas num\u00ebrimit t\u00eb tij m\u00eb t\u00eb fundit), t\u00eb ardhurat nga tarifat dhe sasist\u00eb e ekzagjeruara t\u00eb investimeve nga vendet e huaja p\u00ebr t\u00eb rind\u00ebrtuar kapacitetet e SHBA-s\u00eb. Pak r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi ka q\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto pretendime jan\u00eb fictive \u2013 tashm\u00eb ato jan\u00eb rr\u00ebnjosur thell\u00eb n\u00eb ungjillin e MAGA-s dhe liderit t\u00eb saj.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb dallim nga Trump, Xi p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson nj\u00eb tradit\u00eb q\u00eb daton nga koha e Sun Tzu-s\u00eb, e cila e vler\u00ebson strategjin\u00eb si gj\u00ebn\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrsa kjo nuk funksionon gjithmon\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrsosur p\u00ebr Kin\u00ebn \u2013 un\u00eb kam shqet\u00ebsimet e mia rreth efikasitetit t\u00eb strategjis\u00eb aktuale t\u00eb riekuilibrimit ekonomik \u2013 lidershipi kinez meriton kredite t\u00eb m\u00ebdha p\u00ebr faktin se sa shum\u00eb e vler\u00ebson mendimin strategjik.<\/p>\n
Samiti i majit i Xi dhe Trump po merr trajt\u00ebn e nj\u00eb mosp\u00ebrputhjeje historike mes nj\u00eb strategjisti me vizion afatgjat\u00eb dhe nj\u00eb profeti t\u00eb rrem\u00eb q\u00eb p\u00eblqen t\u00eb proklamoj\u00eb sukseset e tij t\u00eb supozuara. Trump, si gjithmon\u00eb, do t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtoj\u00eb nj\u00eb fabul g\u00ebnjeshtrash dhe deformimesh, duke theksuar edhe m\u00eb tep\u00ebr kontrastin mes \u201cArtit t\u00eb Marr\u00ebveshjes\u201d dhe \u201cArtit t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs.\u201d Perspektiva e Sun Tzu-s\u00eb do t\u00eb k\u00ebmb\u00ebngulte se \u201cai q\u00eb ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb faktor\u00eb strategjik\u00eb n\u00eb an\u00ebn e tij do t\u00eb fitoj\u00eb.\u201d<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr dy vite me radh\u00eb, Trumpi ka b\u00ebr\u00eb gafa politike masive dhe t\u00eb paligjshme. N\u00eb fakt, shqet\u00ebsohem qysh tani p\u00ebr 2027-\u00ebn. Deri at\u00ebher\u00eb, n\u00ebse sondazhet aktuale vlejn\u00eb di\u00e7ka, fraksioni MAGA i Trumpit do t\u00eb ket\u00eb humbur kontrollin mbi t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn nj\u00eb dhom\u00eb t\u00eb Kongresit dhe me shpres\u00eb, autokracia e stilit amerikan do t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb r\u00ebnie. Por nj\u00eb president jopopullor, i zem\u00ebruar dhe hakmarr\u00ebs do t\u00eb l\u00ebpij\u00eb plag\u00ebt, i vendosur q\u00eb t\u00eb hakmerret para zgjedhjeve t\u00eb vitit 2028.<\/p>\n
Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb rrezik q\u00eb nuk duhet marr\u00eb leht\u00ebsisht. Do t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb dor\u00eb nj\u00eb lidershipi t\u00eb ri n\u00eb Kongres q\u00eb t\u00eb ndreq\u00eb kursin e SHBA-ve. Sun Tzu ka fjal\u00ebn e fundit rreth asaj mund\u00ebsie: \u201cLidershipi \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje inteligjence, besueshm\u00ebrie, njer\u00ebzill\u00ebku, guximi dhe vendosm\u00ebrie.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nga Stephen S. Roach, Project Syndicate Mes nj\u00eb serie gafash masive politikash t\u00eb paligjshme, presidenti amerikan Donald Trump e ka kthyer v\u00ebmendjen drejt stabilizimit t\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve me Presidentin kinez Xi Jinping n\u00eb samitin e majit. Por me gjas\u00eb gj\u00ebrat do t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb keq, pasi Trump nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb i aft\u00eb t\u00eb kuptoj\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsin\u00eb e strategjis\u00eb, nj\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-84783","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84783","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=84783"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84783\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=84783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=84783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=84783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}