Vendimi i presidentit Donald Trump p\u00ebr t\u00eb bllokuar t\u00eb gjitha d\u00ebrgesat iraniane q\u00eb hyjn\u00eb ose dalin nga Ngushtica e Hormuzit, duke nisur nga m\u00ebngjesi i s\u00eb h\u00ebn\u00ebs, krijon testin e radh\u00ebs t\u00eb madh n\u00eb luft\u00ebn me Iranin: cila pal\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrballoj\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb dhimbje ekonomike, udh\u00ebheqja e re n\u00eb Teheran apo vet\u00eb Trump?<\/p>\n
Pothuajse gjith\u00e7ka n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn se si do t\u00eb zhvillohet kjo faz\u00eb e re e luft\u00ebs pritet t\u00eb jet\u00eb ndryshe nga ajo q\u00eb kemi par\u00eb deri tani.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb drejtoj\u00eb raketa dhe bomba ndaj objektivave ushtarake, pozicioneve t\u00eb raketave dhe industris\u00eb mbrojt\u00ebse iraniane, Trump do t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb mbyt\u00eb burimin jetik t\u00eb vendit, naft\u00ebn q\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebn m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 50% t\u00eb eksporteve dhe pothuajse t\u00eb gjitha t\u00eb ardhurat e qeveris\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Shpresa e par\u00eb e presidentit, sipas zyrtar\u00ebve t\u00eb administrat\u00ebs, \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb detyroj\u00eb Iranin t\u00eb pranoj\u00eb kushtet q\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebspresidenti JD Vance paraqiti n\u00eb bisedimet e paqes n\u00eb Islamabad, t\u00eb cilat Irani i refuzoi, ashtu si edhe n\u00eb negociatat n\u00eb Gjenev\u00eb para fillimit t\u00eb luft\u00ebs m\u00eb 28 shkurt. Lista e kushteve p\u00ebrfshin dor\u00ebzimin e t\u00eb gjith\u00eb rezerv\u00ebs s\u00eb uraniumit, \u00e7montimin p\u00ebrfundimtar t\u00eb infrastruktur\u00ebs b\u00ebrthamore dhe heqjen dor\u00eb nga kontrolli mbi trafikun n\u00eb ngushtic\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse Irani nuk dor\u00ebzohet, Trump duket se ende shpreson n\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb deklaroi n\u00eb dit\u00ebn e par\u00eb t\u00eb luft\u00ebs: q\u00eb popullsia iraniane t\u00eb ngrihet dhe t\u00eb rr\u00ebzoj\u00eb regjimin ushtarako-fetar q\u00eb qeveris vendin q\u00eb nga viti 1979. Por ky skenar \u00ebsht\u00eb po aq i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb sa edhe m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Nga ana e tij, Irani duket se ka zgjedhur t\u00eb luftoj\u00eb n\u00eb tregjet globale, ku ka zbuluar nj\u00eb form\u00eb t\u00eb re fuqie. Duke e ditur se ka humbur betej\u00ebn ushtarake n\u00eb jav\u00ebt e para, por ka performuar mbi pritshm\u00ebrit\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00ebn e informacionit dhe n\u00eb goditjet me raketa e dron\u00eb ndaj fqinj\u00ebve, Irani po llogarit se Trump ka nj\u00eb toleranc\u00eb t\u00eb kufizuar ndaj kostos politike.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse asnj\u00eb pik\u00eb nafte iraniane nuk kalon nga ngushtica, \u00e7mimet mund t\u00eb rriten ndjesh\u00ebm, me disa kompani q\u00eb parashikojn\u00eb deri n\u00eb 175 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i. Irani \u00ebsht\u00eb i vet\u00ebdijsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr efektet politike q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb inflacioni n\u00eb SHBA, m\u00eb pak se shtat\u00eb muaj para zgjedhjeve t\u00eb mesmandatit.<\/p>\n
\u201cS\u00eb shpejti do t\u00eb ndjeni nostalgji p\u00ebr benzin\u00ebn 4\u20135 dollar\u00eb\u201d, paralajm\u00ebroi negociatori kryesor iranian dhe kryetari i parlamentit, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Megjithat\u00eb, deri t\u00eb h\u00ebn\u00ebn n\u00eb m\u00ebngjes, tregjet nuk dukeshin t\u00eb panikuara: \u00e7mimi i naft\u00ebs Brent u rrit me rreth 6%, n\u00eb pak mbi 101 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i, por mbeti n\u00ebn nivelet para arm\u00ebpushimit.<\/p>\n
Trump, nga ana tjet\u00ebr, ka zbutur pritshm\u00ebrit\u00eb p\u00ebr uljen e \u00e7mimeve, duke th\u00ebn\u00eb se ato \u201cdo t\u00eb mbeten af\u00ebrsisht t\u00eb nj\u00ebjta\u201d dhe mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb \u201cpak m\u00eb t\u00eb larta\u201d gjat\u00eb zgjedhjeve, nj\u00eb shqet\u00ebsim i madh p\u00ebr republikan\u00ebt.<\/p>\n
Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb situat\u00eb e paprecedent. Ashtu si \u201ckarantina\u201d e vendosur nga John F. Kennedy ndaj Kub\u00ebs n\u00eb vitin 1962, \u00ebsht\u00eb e pamundur t\u00eb parashikohet rezultati. At\u00ebher\u00eb, SHBA prisnin t\u00eb shihnin n\u00ebse Bashkimi Sovjetik do t\u00eb p\u00ebrballej apo do t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqej. Nikita Hrushovi zgjodhi t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqej.<\/p>\n
Tani mbetet p\u00ebr t\u2019u par\u00eb n\u00ebse lideri i ri iranian, Mojtaba Khamenei, do t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn gj\u00eb. Pa nj\u00eb marin\u00eb t\u00eb fuqishme, Irani ka pak shanse n\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrballje direkte.<\/p>\n
Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr ndryshim strategjie p\u00ebr Trump. Disa jav\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, ai lejoi Iranin t\u00eb shiste naft\u00ebn q\u00eb ishte tashm\u00eb n\u00eb det p\u00ebr t\u00eb stabilizuar tregun. Por kjo nuk pati efekt, dhe Trump u duk sikur po zhvillonte nj\u00eb luft\u00eb gjysmake, duke bombarduar Iranin nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb i lejonte t\u00eb fitonte para.<\/p>\n
\u201cIrani po pasurohet nd\u00ebrsa t\u00eb tjer\u00ebt varf\u00ebrohen\u201d, tha Richard Haass, ish-zyrtar i lart\u00eb amerikan. \u201cBllokada rrit presionin ekonomik mbi Iranin. N\u00ebse duan t\u00eb shesin naft\u00eb, duhet t\u00eb hapin ngushtic\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb.\u201d<\/p>\n
Suksesi i strategjis\u00eb do t\u00eb varet edhe nga reagimi i klient\u00ebve kryesor\u00eb t\u00eb Iranit, si Kina, India, Pakistani dhe Turqia. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb n\u00ebse ata do t\u00eb ushtrojn\u00eb presion mbi Teheranin.<\/p>\n
Ekziston gjithashtu rreziku q\u00eb Irani t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjet duke sulmuar objektet energjetike n\u00eb vendet arabe fqinje, duke sinjalizuar se n\u00ebse nuk mund t\u00eb eksportoj\u00eb naft\u00eb, at\u00ebher\u00eb askush nuk duhet t\u00eb eksportoj\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Ende ka paqart\u00ebsi mbi m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn e zbatimit t\u00eb bllokad\u00ebs. Trump fillimisht foli p\u00ebr nj\u00eb bllokad\u00eb totale, por m\u00eb pas u sqarua se ajo do t\u00eb aplikohet vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr anijet q\u00eb lidhen me Iranin. Mallrat nga vendet e tjera t\u00eb Gjirit do t\u00eb lejohen t\u00eb kalojn\u00eb, por me rrezik t\u00eb lart\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Ngushtica \u00ebsht\u00eb bllokuar edhe m\u00eb par\u00eb, por historia nuk ofron nj\u00eb precedent t\u00eb qart\u00eb p\u00ebr situat\u00ebn aktuale.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse bllokada \u00ebsht\u00eb afatshkurt\u00ebr dhe funksionon, ajo mund t\u00eb konsiderohet nj\u00eb l\u00ebvizje e zgjuar nga Trump. Por n\u00ebse zgjat, ai rrezikon t\u00eb duket si nj\u00eb lider q\u00eb nuk parashikoi pasojat e nj\u00eb konflikti q\u00eb mendonte se do t\u00eb zgjaste vet\u00ebm disa dit\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa tani po hyn n\u00eb jav\u00ebn e shtat\u00eb dhe pasojat p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb globale sapo kan\u00eb filluar.\/ NYTimes\/ Analiza nga David E. Sanger mbulon administrat\u00ebn Trump dhe nj\u00eb gam\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtjesh t\u00eb siguris\u00eb komb\u00ebtare. Ai ka qen\u00eb gazetar i The New York Times p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb se kat\u00ebr dekada dhe ka shkruar kat\u00ebr libra mbi politik\u00ebn e jashtme dhe sfidat e siguris\u00eb komb\u00ebtare.<\/p>\n
The post Bllokimi i Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit\/ Tani do shihet kush e duron m\u00eb shum\u00eb dhimbjen<\/a> appeared first on Lapsi.al<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Vendimi i presidentit Donald Trump p\u00ebr t\u00eb bllokuar t\u00eb gjitha d\u00ebrgesat iraniane q\u00eb hyjn\u00eb ose dalin nga Ngushtica e Hormuzit, duke nisur nga m\u00ebngjesi i s\u00eb h\u00ebn\u00ebs, krijon testin e radh\u00ebs t\u00eb madh n\u00eb luft\u00ebn me Iranin: cila pal\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrballoj\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb dhimbje ekonomike, udh\u00ebheqja e re n\u00eb Teheran apo vet\u00eb Trump? Pothuajse […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-81756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81756"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81756\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}