Sulmi SHBA-Izrael ndaj Iranit ka qen\u00eb nj\u00eb katastrof\u00eb e pap\u00ebrmbajtur humanitare, politike dhe ekonomike. Dhe situata mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsohet edhe m\u00eb tej.<\/p>\n
Pas d\u00ebshtimit t\u00eb fushat\u00ebs s\u00eb bombardimeve p\u00ebr t\u00eb arritur ndryshimin e regjimit n\u00eb Teheran apo p\u00ebr t\u00eb rihapur Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit, nj\u00eb pik\u00eb kritike p\u00ebr energjin\u00eb q\u00eb Irani e ka bllokuar efektivisht, presidenti amerikan Donald Trump ka dislokuar mij\u00ebra trupa shtes\u00eb amerikane n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebto p\u00ebrfshijn\u00eb 6,000 marinar\u00eb dhe personel ushtarak n\u00eb bordin e nj\u00eb grupi godit\u00ebs aeroplanmbajt\u00ebs t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequr nga USS George H. W. Bush, m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 1,000 parashutist\u00eb nga Divizioni i 82-t\u00eb Ajror, si dhe nj\u00eb nj\u00ebsi sulmi amfib t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequr nga USS Tripoli, q\u00eb p\u00ebrfshin rreth 2,200 marinsa. Ata i bashkohen rreth 50,000 trupave amerikane q\u00eb ndodheshin tashm\u00eb n\u00eb rajon n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb luft\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
A do t\u2019i dislokoj\u00eb v\u00ebrtet Trump k\u00ebto trupa?<\/p>\n
Provat sugjerojn\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm se po.<\/p>\n
Grumbullime t\u00eb ngjashme masive ushtarake i paraprin\u00eb sulmit amerikan ndaj Venezuel\u00ebs n\u00eb janar dhe sulmit fillestar SHBA-Izrael ndaj Iranit m\u00eb 28 shkurt. Edhe mesazhet e fundit t\u00eb Trump, q\u00eb nuk p\u00ebrjashton d\u00ebrgimin e trupave tok\u00ebsore nd\u00ebrsa sugjeron, pa prova, se negociatat me Teheranin \u201cpo shkojn\u00eb shum\u00eb mir\u00eb\u201d, ngjajn\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb frikshme me zhvillimet e pak jav\u00ebve m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, pasojat tashm\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnda nga sulmi ndaj Iranit, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb rritjen e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb energjis\u00eb, shtimin e kostove t\u00eb huamarrjes s\u00eb qeveris\u00eb amerikane dhe r\u00ebnien e tregjeve financiare, duket se nuk e kan\u00eb penguar Trump t\u00eb nis\u00eb fushat\u00ebn e bombardimeve. Pse t\u00eb mendohet se pasojat, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pashmangshme katastrofike, t\u00eb nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrjeje tok\u00ebsore do t\u00eb ishin ndryshe?<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, kryeqytetet europiane duken m\u00eb t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuara p\u00ebr nj\u00eb skenar pothuajse t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt: q\u00eb Trump, n\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzoj\u00eb konfliktin, t\u00eb shpall\u00eb fitore dhe t\u2019ua l\u00ebr\u00eb atyre detyr\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb rihapur Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit.<\/p>\n
Por si\u00e7 thekson Alicia Garc\u00eda Herrero, studiuese n\u00eb think-tank-un me baz\u00eb n\u00eb Bruksel Bruegel, nj\u00eb t\u00ebrheqje amerikane ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u2019i jap\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb fuqi rivalit kryesor, Kin\u00ebs, p\u00ebr ta rihapur ngushtic\u00ebn p\u00ebrmes kanaleve diplomatike \u2013 gj\u00eb q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr arsye pse, sipas saj, \u201cSHBA do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzoj\u00eb\u201d.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse SHBA do t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqej nga Irani pa e hapur ngushtic\u00ebn, \u201cKina do t\u00eb ishte fituesja m\u00eb e madhe ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb, sepse Kina do ta hapte Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit dhe t\u00eb gjith\u00eb do ta njihnin k\u00ebt\u00eb,\u201d tha ajo.<\/p>\n
Rritje e bllokuar ekonomike<\/strong><\/p>\n Duke supozuar se SHBA nis nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrje tok\u00ebsore, \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb ndodhte realisht? Dhe cili do t\u00eb ishte ndikimi n\u00eb Europ\u00eb?<\/p>\n Askush nuk e di me sakt\u00ebsi.<\/p>\n Kjo sepse nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb se \u00e7far\u00eb detyre konkrete do t\u00eb kishin trupat tok\u00ebsore. A do t\u00eb ngarkoheshin, p\u00ebr shembull, me marrjen e uraniumit n\u00eb impiantin b\u00ebrthamor n\u00eb Isfahan? Apo do t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqeshin t\u00eb merrnin dhe t\u00eb mbanin n\u00ebn kontroll rafinerit\u00eb kryesore t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb ishullin Kharg? Apo t\u00eb dyja? Apo asnj\u00ebr\u00ebn?<\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, pothuajse e sigurt \u00ebsht\u00eb se nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrje tok\u00ebsore, e cila ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebhej n\u00eb koordinim me aleat\u00eb rajonal\u00eb si Arabia Saudite dhe Emiratet e Bashkuara Arabe, do ta d\u00ebnonte Europ\u00ebn me nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb t\u00eb zgjatur stanjacioni, ku \u00e7mimet m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe gazit do t\u00eb rrisnin inflacionin dhe do t\u00eb dob\u00ebsonin prodhimin.<\/p>\n Parashikimi baz\u00eb i European Central Bank, sipas t\u00eb cilit inflacioni n\u00eb eurozon\u00eb do t\u00eb arrinte 2.6% dhe rritja ekonomike do t\u00eb binte n\u00eb 0.9% k\u00ebt\u00eb vit, do t\u00eb rezultonte shum\u00eb optimist, duke qen\u00eb se bazohej n\u00eb supozimin se konflikti do t\u00eb mbetej \u201crelativisht i kufizuar\u201d. Nj\u00eb seri rritjesh t\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit nga BQE p\u00ebr t\u00eb frenuar inflacionin, por q\u00eb do t\u00eb d\u00ebmtonin investimet, do t\u00eb ishte pothuajse e pashmangshme.<\/p>\n \u201cDo t\u00eb ishte jasht\u00ebzakonisht negative,\u201d tha Jacob Funk Kirkegaard. Sipas tij, Irani mund t\u00eb kund\u00ebrp\u00ebrgjigjej duke shkat\u00ebrruar impiantin e gazit t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm n\u00eb Ras Laffan n\u00eb Katar, duke nxjerr\u00eb menj\u00ebher\u00eb jasht\u00eb funksionit nj\u00eb t\u00eb pest\u00ebn e furnizimit global me LNG.<\/p>\n \u00c7mimet e naft\u00ebs do t\u00eb rriteshin ndjesh\u00ebm, pasi tregjet do t\u00eb fillonin t\u00eb llogarisnin \u201creduktimin dhe shkat\u00ebrrimin afatgjat\u00eb t\u00eb infrastruktur\u00ebs kryesore energjetike n\u00eb Gjirin Persik\u201d. Edhe kostot e huamarrjes p\u00ebr qeverit\u00eb europiane do t\u00eb rriteshin, duke arritur nivele t\u00eb krahasueshme me kriz\u00ebn e eurozon\u00ebs s\u00eb dekad\u00ebs s\u00eb kaluar.<\/p>\n \u201cKur kalon n\u00eb trupa tok\u00ebsore, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb histori krejt tjet\u00ebr,\u201d shtoi ai.<\/p>\n Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, Philipp Lausberg theksoi se diversifikimi i furnizimeve energjetike t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs pas pushtimit rus t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs n\u00eb 2022, si dhe rritja e kapacitetit t\u00eb eksporteve t\u00eb LNG nga SHBA, mund ta zbusin disi goditjen.<\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, ai paralajm\u00ebroi se nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrje tok\u00ebsore mund t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb mungesa t\u00eb produkteve t\u00eb rafinuara, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht t\u00eb karburantit p\u00ebr avion\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilin linjat ajrore europiane mb\u00ebshteten n\u00eb Gjirin Persik p\u00ebr rreth nj\u00eb t\u00eb kat\u00ebrt\u00ebn e k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs.<\/p>\n Konflikti mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtoj\u00eb gjithashtu deindustrializimin n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, sidomos n\u00eb Gjermani, si dhe t\u00eb rris\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjen p\u00ebr partit\u00eb populiste q\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb ndihm\u00eb financiare p\u00ebr qytetar\u00ebt dhe bizneset.<\/p>\n \u201cKjo mund t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb trazira politike,\u201d tha Lausberg. Qeverit\u00eb europiane do t\u00eb p\u00ebrballeshin me nj\u00eb dilem\u00eb mes mbrojtjes s\u00eb familjeve dhe disiplin\u00ebs fiskale, \u00e7ka n\u00eb afat t\u00eb gjat\u00eb mund t\u00eb v\u00ebr\u00eb n\u00eb pik\u00ebpyetje stabilitetin financiar t\u00eb eurozon\u00ebs.<\/p>\n Ai paralajm\u00ebroi gjithashtu se konflikti mund t\u00eb nxis\u00eb kriza t\u00eb tjera, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb tregjeve t\u00eb lidhura me inteligjenc\u00ebn artificiale.<\/p>\n \u201cKemi koh\u00eb q\u00eb flasim p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb fllusk\u00eb t\u00eb AI, dhe kjo mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb pika e fundit,\u201d tha ai.<\/p>\n Frika b\u00ebrthamore<\/strong><\/p>\n Ekspert\u00ebt, megjithat\u00eb, minimizojn\u00eb mund\u00ebsin\u00eb q\u00eb nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrje tok\u00ebsore t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb n\u00eb p\u00ebrdorimin e arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore.<\/p>\n \u201cIzraeli \u00ebsht\u00eb i vetmi shtet me arm\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore n\u00eb rajon dhe gjasat q\u00eb ai t\u2019i p\u00ebrdor\u00eb kund\u00ebr trupave amerikane nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb larta,\u201d tha Susi Snyder nga organizata International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.<\/p>\n M\u00eb e mundshme, sipas saj, \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrje tok\u00ebsore t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb proces t\u00eb gjat\u00eb pushtimi, i ngjash\u00ebm me nd\u00ebrhyrjen amerikane n\u00eb Irak n\u00eb vitin 2003.<\/p>\n \u201cKemi qen\u00eb k\u00ebtu m\u00eb par\u00eb,\u201d tha ajo. \u201cDhe e dim\u00eb si p\u00ebrfundoi.\u201d<\/p>\n Edhe Kirkegaard e mb\u00ebshteti k\u00ebt\u00eb vler\u00ebsim: \u201cProblemi \u00ebsht\u00eb, pasi e b\u00ebn k\u00ebt\u00eb, si do t\u2019i nxjerr\u00ebsh m\u00eb k\u00ebto trupa?\u201d<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb pyetje q\u00eb, fatkeq\u00ebsisht, Trump mund t\u00eb detyrohet t\u2019i p\u00ebrgjigjet shum\u00eb shpejt.\/Euractiv.com<\/a><\/p>\n The post \u00c7far\u00eb ndodh me Evrop\u00ebn pas nj\u00eb pushtimi tok\u00ebsor t\u00eb Iranit nga SHBA<\/a> appeared first on Lapsi.al<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sulmi SHBA-Izrael ndaj Iranit ka qen\u00eb nj\u00eb katastrof\u00eb e pap\u00ebrmbajtur humanitare, politike dhe ekonomike. Dhe situata mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsohet edhe m\u00eb tej. Pas d\u00ebshtimit t\u00eb fushat\u00ebs s\u00eb bombardimeve p\u00ebr t\u00eb arritur ndryshimin e regjimit n\u00eb Teheran apo p\u00ebr t\u00eb rihapur Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit, nj\u00eb pik\u00eb kritike p\u00ebr energjin\u00eb q\u00eb Irani e ka bllokuar efektivisht, presidenti […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-80155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80155","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80155"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80155\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80155"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80155"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}