Nga Federico Fubini\/<\/p>\n
Edhe pse n\u00eb pamje t\u00eb par\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb gjesh ngjashm\u00ebri mes luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb dhe asaj n\u00eb Iran, fjalimi i Donald Trump-it n\u00eb Sht\u00ebpin\u00eb e Bardh\u00eb n\u00eb dit\u00ebn e g\u00ebnjeshtrave i ka sjell\u00eb k\u00ebto paralele m\u00eb qart\u00eb n\u00eb fokus.<\/p>\n
\u00cbsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb q\u00eb Ukraina mbetet nj\u00eb demokraci (sado e pap\u00ebrsosur), q\u00eb synon integrimin europian dhe nuk p\u00ebrb\u00ebn k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim p\u00ebr fqinj\u00ebt e saj, nd\u00ebrsa Irani drejtohet nga nj\u00eb regjim diktatorial q\u00eb p\u00ebr dekada me radh\u00eb ka shtypur popullsin\u00eb e vet, ka nxitur terrorizmin dhe ka destabilizuar Lindjen e Mesme. Edhe n\u00eb nivel global, Ukraina dhe Irani q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb gjithashtu n\u00eb an\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrta. Qeveria iraniane ka furnizuar Rusin\u00eb me teknologji dron\u00ebsh dhe merr n\u00eb k\u00ebmbim mb\u00ebshtetje nga sh\u00ebrbimet inteligjente ruse, si dhe p\u00ebrfiton financime duke shitur naft\u00eb t\u00eb sanksionuar n\u00eb Kin\u00eb. Ukraina, p\u00ebrkundrazi, merr mb\u00ebshtetje inteligjence nga SHBA, si dhe para dhe arm\u00eb nga Europa dhe demokraci t\u00eb tjera.<\/p>\n
Por n\u00ebse i l\u00ebm\u00eb m\u00ebnjan\u00eb k\u00ebto dimensione morale dhe strategjike, mund t\u00eb v\u00ebrejm\u00eb disa ngjashm\u00ebri t\u00eb habitshme. M\u00eb kryesorja lidhet me karakterin e lider\u00ebve q\u00eb I nis\u00ebn k\u00ebto luft\u00ebra. Si Trump, ashtu edhe presidenti rus Vladimir Putin, gabuan n\u00eb vler\u00ebsimin se si do t\u00eb zhvillohej konflikti dhe tani secili po p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb gjej\u00eb nj\u00eb rrug\u00ebdalje q\u00eb t\u00eb shp\u00ebtojn\u00eb reputacionin nga varri q\u00eb i kan\u00eb hapur vetes.
\nPrandaj, plani i fundit amerikan me 15 pika p\u00ebr \u201cpaqen\u201d n\u00eb Gjirin Persik i ngjan shum\u00eb planit rus me 28 pika p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn, t\u00eb hartuar vitin e kaluar p\u00ebr diplomat\u00ebt amator\u00eb t\u00eb Trump-it, Jared Kushner dhe Steve Witkoff. T\u00eb dy dokumentet, ashtu si edhe fjalimi i \u00e7oroditur i Trump-it m\u00eb 1 prill, duhen marr\u00eb seriozisht, por jo fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr fjal\u00eb. Ato sinjalizojn\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjetur nj\u00eb dalje dinjitoze nga lufta.<\/p>\n
Natyrisht, secila ofert\u00eb u refuzua menj\u00ebher\u00eb nga pala tjet\u00ebr. Irani nuk do t\u00eb heq\u00eb dor\u00eb nga pasurimi i uraniumit dhe programet e tij t\u00eb raketave balistike, dhe mbetet i vendosur t\u2019i shkaktoj\u00eb nj\u00eb goditje Trump-it duke kontrolluar kush mund t\u00eb kaloj\u00eb n\u00eb Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit dhe me \u00e7far\u00eb \u00e7mimi. Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, Ukraina, p\u00ebr arsye t\u00eb kuptueshme, nuk do t\u2019i dor\u00ebzoj\u00eb rajonin e Donbasit Putinit si shp\u00ebrblim p\u00ebr agresionin territorial.<\/p>\n
Ukrainasit mbeten t\u00eb vendosur t\u00eb q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb n\u00eb pozicionet e tyre dhe t\u00eb frenojn\u00eb Rusin\u00eb duke i shkaktuar nj\u00eb num\u00ebr t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonsh\u00ebm humbjesh njer\u00ebzore ushtris\u00eb s\u00eb saj (tashm\u00eb t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn kat\u00ebr her\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta se humbjet amerikane n\u00eb Vietnam). As Ukraina dhe as Irani nuk kan\u00eb nxitim t\u2019i japin armikut nj\u00eb rrug\u00eb t\u00eb leht\u00eb daljeje, pavar\u00ebsisht bombardimeve t\u00eb r\u00ebnda nga ajri.<\/p>\n
Edhe pse nuk ka barazi morale mes Ukrain\u00ebs dhe Iranit, ekzistojn\u00eb ngjashm\u00ebri interesante n\u00eb mekanik\u00ebn e dy luft\u00ebrave. T\u00eb dyja u nis\u00ebn mbi baza supozimesh tep\u00ebr optimiste. Putin priste t\u00eb merrte Kievin brenda pak dit\u00ebsh; ushtar\u00ebve rus\u00eb madje u ishte th\u00ebn\u00eb t\u00eb merrnin uniformat e parad\u00ebs p\u00ebr festimin e fitores s\u00eb af\u00ebrt. Qeveria ukrainase do t\u00eb z\u00ebvend\u00ebsohej nga nj\u00eb kukull e Kremlinit.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb ngjashme, Trump supozoi se operacioni \u201cEpic Fury\u201d do t\u00eb \u00e7onte menj\u00ebher\u00eb n\u00eb ndryshim regjimi n\u00eb Iran. Ai mendoi se mund t\u2019i trondiste dhe t\u2019i n\u00ebnshtrohte ajatollah\u00ebt dhe Gard\u00ebn Revolucionare iraniane thjesht duke eliminuar drejtuesit kryesor\u00eb. Ai mendoi gjithashtu se mund t\u00eb vendoste nj\u00eb regjim kukull \u2013 si n\u00eb Venezuel\u00eb \u2013 p\u00ebr t\u00eb zbatuar d\u00ebshirat e Amerik\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Nuk u desh shum\u00eb koh\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb kuptuar sa t\u00eb pabaza ishin k\u00ebto plane. Ukraina ishte e motivuar t\u00eb mbetej e pavarur dhe shum\u00eb m\u00eb e p\u00ebrgatitur dhe e armatosur sesa n\u00eb vitin 2014, kur humbi Krimen\u00eb. Po ashtu, struktura komplekse, e kalitur n\u00eb luft\u00eb dhe fanatike e pushtetit n\u00eb Iran nuk kishte asnj\u00eb gjas\u00eb t\u00eb sillhej si klani n\u00eb pushtet n\u00eb Venezuel\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Pyetja thelb\u00ebsore nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse k\u00ebto plane mund t\u2019i mbijetonin realitetit t\u00eb fush\u00ebbetej\u00ebs (natyrisht q\u00eb jo), por pse t\u00eb dy agresor\u00ebt gabuan kaq r\u00ebnd\u00eb. Pse Trump dhe Putin nuk kuptuan apo nuk mund\u00ebn t\u00eb parashikonin q\u00eb ushtri shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla do t\u2019iu p\u00ebrgjigjeshin me nj\u00eb luft\u00eb asimetrike? Duhej t\u00eb ishte e qart\u00eb se nj\u00eb shtet p\u00ebrball\u00eb nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi ekzistencial nuk do t\u00eb kursente asnj\u00eb mjet.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, vendet e sulmuara e dinin \u00e7far\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebnin. P\u00ebr kat\u00ebr vite, Irani kishte furnizuar Rusin\u00eb me dron\u00eb dhe teknologji dron\u00ebsh, duke v\u00ebzhguar nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht se si Ukraina p\u00ebrsoste p\u00ebrdorimin e dron\u00ebve ajror\u00eb dhe detar\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrruar anijet ruse n\u00eb Detin e Zi dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb goditur infrastruktur\u00ebn e naft\u00ebs dhe gazit. Garda Revolucionare Islamike thjesht aplikoi t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtat m\u00ebsime n\u00eb Hormuz dhe Gjirin Persik, duke e marr\u00eb peng ekonomin\u00eb globale dhe duke rritur presionin ndaj SHBA-s\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, Trump duket se u kap n\u00eb befasi. Ai injoroi kryetarin e Shtabit t\u00eb P\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt dhe nuk b\u00ebri llogarit\u00eb si\u00e7 duhet. Irani kishte ndoshta dhjet\u00eb her\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb dron\u00eb t\u00eb leht\u00eb t\u00eb gjenerat\u00ebs s\u00eb re sesa SHBA kishte interceptor\u00eb t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb k\u00ebta t\u00eb fundit kushtonin dhjet\u00eb her\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00ebsi. Di\u00e7ka e ngjashme ndodhi n\u00eb vitin 2022: Putin dhe gjeneral\u00ebt e tij nuk parashikuan q\u00eb nj\u00eb kolon\u00eb e gjat\u00eb tankesh dhe mjetesh t\u00eb blinduara n\u00eb nj\u00eb rrug\u00eb t\u00eb vetme drejt Kievit mund t\u00eb bllokohej leht\u00ebsisht \u2013 dhe m\u00eb pas t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrohej \u2013 duke hedhur n\u00eb er\u00eb nj\u00eb ur\u00eb t\u00eb vetme n\u00eb veri t\u00eb kryeqytetit.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebto vendime katastrofike jan\u00eb simptom\u00eb e nj\u00eb patologjie m\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb. Nj\u00eb individ i vet\u00ebm nuk mund ta \u00e7oj\u00eb nj\u00eb vend t\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00eb drejt shkat\u00ebrrimit, p\u00ebrve\u00e7se n\u00ebse institucionet jan\u00eb tashm\u00eb t\u00eb d\u00ebmtuara. Si Trump, ashtu edhe Putin u mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebn n\u00eb nj\u00eb rreth t\u00eb ngusht\u00eb njer\u00ebzish q\u00eb vet\u00ebm u thoshin \u201cpo\u201d dhe q\u00eb nuk do t\u2019i paralajm\u00ebronin kurr\u00eb p\u00ebr rreziqet reale t\u00eb veprimeve t\u00eb tyre.<\/p>\n
Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb kuptohet se si nj\u00eb diktator i moshuar dhe i izoluar n\u00eb Kremlin mund t\u00eb humbas\u00eb lidhjen me realitetin. Por fakti q\u00eb nj\u00eb president amerikan mund t\u00eb shp\u00ebrfill\u00eb k\u00ebshillat e ekspert\u00ebve t\u00eb ushtris\u00eb s\u00eb vet dhe t\u00eb nis\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb madhe pa konsultuar Kongresin apo popullin amerikan, e aq m\u00eb pak aleat\u00ebt e vjet\u00ebr, tregon thell\u00ebsin\u00eb e mosfunksionimit institucional n\u00eb SHBA.<\/p>\n
Putin dhe Trump jan\u00eb t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm, sigurisht. Megjithat\u00eb, ata ndajn\u00eb disa tipare t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebta \u2013 munges\u00eb empatie, aft\u00ebsi identike p\u00ebr t\u00eb g\u00ebnjyer, indiferenc\u00eb ndaj s\u00eb drejt\u00ebs dhe s\u00eb gabuar\u00ebs, prirje hakmarr\u00ebse p\u00ebrball\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtetave t\u00eb pak\u00ebndshme \u2013 dhe b\u00ebn\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin lloj gabimi duke hyr\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00eb. N\u00ebse lufta me Iranin \u00e7on n\u00eb nj\u00eb recesion global, at\u00ebher\u00eb kriza e demokracis\u00eb amerikane do t\u00eb jet\u00eb shkaku.\/ Project Syndicate<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nga Federico Fubini\/ Edhe pse n\u00eb pamje t\u00eb par\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb gjesh ngjashm\u00ebri mes luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb dhe asaj n\u00eb Iran, fjalimi i Donald Trump-it n\u00eb Sht\u00ebpin\u00eb e Bardh\u00eb n\u00eb dit\u00ebn e g\u00ebnjeshtrave i ka sjell\u00eb k\u00ebto paralele m\u00eb qart\u00eb n\u00eb fokus. \u00cbsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb q\u00eb Ukraina mbetet nj\u00eb demokraci (sado e pap\u00ebrsosur), […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-80154","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80154","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80154"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80154\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80154"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80154"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80154"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}