Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb ka vler\u00ebsuar se, nj\u00eb vendim i mundsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb kaluar n\u00eb nj\u00eb regjim t\u00eb fiksuar t\u00eb kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit do t\u00eb kishte sjell\u00eb nj\u00eb goditje t\u00eb fort\u00eb n\u00eb parametrat kryesor\u00eb makroekonomik\u00eb t\u00eb vendit.<\/p>\n
Vler\u00ebsimet ekonometrike t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb sugjerojn\u00eb se ndjekja e opsionit t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrjes p\u00ebr t\u00eb ruajtur nj\u00eb nivel t\u00eb caktuar t\u00eb kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit do t\u00eb kishte sjell\u00eb pasoja negative n\u00eb ekonomi.<\/p>\n
M\u00eb konkretisht, n\u00eb nj\u00eb skenar hipotetik ku kursi i k\u00ebmbimit kundrejt Euros do t\u00eb mbahej fiks gjat\u00eb periudh\u00ebs 2023-2025 (n\u00eb nivelin e tremujorit t\u00eb par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2023, apo 115.5 lek\u00eb\/euro), vler\u00ebsohet se norma e inflacionit do t\u00eb rritej deri n\u00eb intervalin 6 \u2013 7% n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn 2024-2025, nga niveli mesatar faktik prej 2.2% i k\u00ebsaj periudhe.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebto nivele inflacioni do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkonin rritjen e norm\u00ebs baz\u00eb deri n\u00eb nivelin 7%, \u00e7ka do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb shtr\u00ebngim i qen\u00ebsish\u00ebm i politik\u00ebs monetare dhe do t\u00eb impononte nj\u00eb kosto t\u00eb lart\u00eb mbi huamarr\u00ebsit.<\/p>\n
Shtr\u00ebngimi i kushteve financiare do t\u00eb frenonte k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn agregate, duke e ulur rritjen ekonomike deri n\u00eb 2.6%, nga 3.9% q\u00eb ka qen\u00eb aktualisht.<\/p>\n
Ngadal\u00ebsimi ekonomik do t\u00eb rriste me 1.2 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje norm\u00ebn e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb p\u00ebr vitin 2005, duke e \u00e7uar at\u00eb n\u00eb nivelin mesatar prej 9.7%, dhe duke shkaktuar v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi financiare p\u00ebr bizneset dhe individ\u00ebt. Po ashtu, raporti i kredive me probleme t\u00eb bizneseve do t\u00eb rritej me pothuaj 3 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje, duke k\u00ebrcyer nga niveli 4.6% n\u00eb 7.5%.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb v\u00ebren se ndryshimi i koniunktur\u00ebs ekonomike n\u00eb periudh\u00ebn 2024-2025 krijoi hap\u00ebsira p\u00ebr nj\u00eb prani t\u00eb shtuar t\u00eb saj n\u00eb tregun valutor.<\/p>\n
M\u00eb konkretisht, r\u00ebnia e inflacionit n\u00ebn objektiv n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb periudh\u00eb, si pasoj\u00eb e goditjeve t\u00eb ofert\u00ebs n\u00eb \u00e7mimet e mallrave baz\u00eb dhe t\u00eb naft\u00ebs, rriti rreziqet potenciale q\u00eb nj\u00eb forcim i shpejt\u00eb dhe i m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm t\u00eb kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit mund t\u00eb kishte mbi stabilitetin monetar.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst, nj\u00eb prani m\u00eb aktive e Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb n\u00eb treg u konsiderua e nevojshme si mas\u00eb mbrojt\u00ebse ndaj rrezikut, me probabilitet t\u00eb ul\u00ebt, por me kosto t\u00eb lart\u00eb, t\u00eb shmangies s\u00eb kursit nga bazat e veta, duke reduktuar nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht edhe rrezikun potencial t\u00eb zhvendosjeve t\u00eb pritjeve\u00a0 inflacioniste nga objektivi.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb thekson edhe nj\u00ebher\u00eb se nd\u00ebrhyrjet n\u00eb tregun valutor nuk kan\u00eb synuar dhe nuk synojn\u00eb mbajtjen e kursit n\u00eb nj\u00eb nivel t\u00eb caktuar, por zbutjen e shpejt\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb forcimit t\u00eb tij, n\u00eb funksion t\u00eb reduktimit t\u00eb rreziqeve q\u00eb luhatjet e larta t\u00eb kursit n\u00eb tregun valutor mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb mbi stabilitetin monetar e financiar dhe n\u00eb funksion t\u00eb ankorimit m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb t\u00eb pritjeve inflacioniste.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb p\u00ebrmbledhje t\u00eb analiz\u00ebs s\u00eb saj, Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb vler\u00ebson se regjimi i lir\u00eb i kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit dhe p\u00ebrqasja e saj ndaj forcimit t\u00eb Lekut n\u00eb vitet e fundit i kan\u00eb mund\u00ebsuar vendit nj\u00eb rritje ekonomike t\u00eb lart\u00eb, t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme dhe joinflacioniste.<\/p>\n
Sipas Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, forcimi i kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit t\u00eb Lekut p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson nj\u00eb fenomen strukturor, p\u00ebr sa koh\u00eb dhe n\u00eb mas\u00ebn q\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimi i bilancit t\u00eb pagesave dhe reduktimi i primeve t\u00eb rrezikut n\u00eb tregun financiar vler\u00ebsohen t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb q\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimet strukturore q\u00eb kan\u00eb diktuar forcimin e kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit jan\u00eb pasqyruar n\u00eb forcimin jo vet\u00ebm t\u00eb kursit nominal, por edhe atij real t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vija t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme, sipas Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, forcimi i kursit ilustron nj\u00eb konvergjenc\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave dhe t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare me partner\u00ebt tan\u00eb tregtar\u00eb t\u00eb Bashkimit Evropian.<\/p>\n
Ky rit\u00ebm m\u00eb i shpejt\u00eb konvergjence \u00ebsht\u00eb i q\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr sa koh\u00eb ai bazohet n\u00eb rritjen e produktivitetit t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare dhe reduktimin e primeve t\u00eb rrezikut n\u00eb tregun e brendsh\u00ebm financiar.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb ve\u00e7anti, zhvendosja e fuqis\u00eb pun\u00ebtore drejt sektorit t\u00eb turizmit dhe sh\u00ebrbimeve t\u00eb lidhura me t\u00eb, sektor\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebt jan\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb paguajn\u00eb paga krahasimisht t\u00eb larta, ilustron nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb produktivitetit t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb pun\u00ebs n\u00eb ekonomi.<\/p>\n
Po ashtu, toleranca q\u00eb investitor\u00ebt vendas kan\u00eb shfaqur ndaj niveleve relativisht t\u00eb ul\u00ebta t\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit n\u00eb Lek\u00eb, si dhe rritja e interesit t\u00eb investitor\u00ebve t\u00eb huaj p\u00ebr t\u00eb investuar n\u00eb tregjet financiare shqiptare, jan\u00eb d\u00ebshmi e primeve m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta t\u00eb rrezikut n\u00eb to.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebto konkluzione sugjerojn\u00eb se forcimi i kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit bazohet n\u00eb faktor\u00eb strukturor\u00eb dhe pasqyron nj\u00eb l\u00ebvizje m\u00eb t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb konverguese t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn n\u00eb afatin e shkurt\u00ebr dhe t\u00eb mes\u00ebm.\/ E.Sh. Monitor<\/p>\n
The post BSH: Fiksimi i kursit t\u00eb Euros do ta \u00e7onte inflacionin n\u00eb 7%<\/a> appeared first on Lapsi.al<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb ka vler\u00ebsuar se, nj\u00eb vendim i mundsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb kaluar n\u00eb nj\u00eb regjim t\u00eb fiksuar t\u00eb kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit do t\u00eb kishte sjell\u00eb nj\u00eb goditje t\u00eb fort\u00eb n\u00eb parametrat kryesor\u00eb makroekonomik\u00eb t\u00eb vendit. Vler\u00ebsimet ekonometrike t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb sugjerojn\u00eb se ndjekja e opsionit t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrjes p\u00ebr t\u00eb ruajtur nj\u00eb nivel t\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79850","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79850"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79850\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79850"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79850"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79850"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}