Shum\u00eb koh\u00eb p\u00ebrpara se Shtetet e Bashkuara dhe Izraeli t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmerrnin sulme ndaj Iranit, Republika Islamike kishte p\u00ebrgatitur tashm\u00eb \u201carm\u00ebn\u201d e saj strategjike: mbajtjen n\u00ebn presion t\u00eb arteris\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb transportit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb bot\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb balancuar ep\u00ebrsin\u00eb ushtarake t\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtar\u00ebve t\u00eb saj. K\u00ebshtu deklarojn\u00eb p\u00ebr Reuters tre burime rajonale q\u00eb kan\u00eb dijeni p\u00ebr planifikimin iranian.<\/p>\n
Prej dekadash, Irani paralajm\u00ebron se n\u00eb rast konflikti do t\u00eb kufizoj\u00eb kalimin e cisternave t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00ebp\u00ebr Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit \u2013 nj\u00eb pik\u00eb strategjike ku rival\u00ebt e tij jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb ekspozuar, pasi \u00e7do nd\u00ebrprerje atje shkakton tronditje t\u00eb menj\u00ebhershme n\u00eb tregjet globale t\u00eb energjis\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Duke v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb sh\u00ebnjest\u00ebr arterien kryesore t\u00eb eksportit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs nga Gjiri Persik, Teherani ka shnd\u00ebrruar avantazhin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh ekonomik t\u00eb rajonit n\u00eb mjetin e tij m\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb parandalues, than\u00eb burimet.<\/p>\n
Rreth nj\u00eb e pesta e naft\u00ebs dhe gazit natyror t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm n\u00eb bot\u00eb kalon zakonisht p\u00ebrmes k\u00ebsaj ngushtice jetike, n\u00eb skajin verior t\u00eb s\u00eb cil\u00ebs ndodhet Irani. Sipas t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave t\u00eb Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara, trafiku p\u00ebrmes k\u00ebtij korridori ka r\u00ebn\u00eb me 97% q\u00eb nga fillimi i luft\u00ebs kund\u00ebr Iranit m\u00eb 28 shkurt.<\/p>\n
Irani ka p\u00ebrdorur taktika t\u00eb ngjashme edhe n\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn. Gjat\u00eb t\u00eb ashtuquajtur\u00ebs \u201cLufta e Cisternave\u201d n\u00eb konfliktin Iran-Irak (1980-1988), sulmet ndaj anijeve e shnd\u00ebrruan Gjirin Persik n\u00eb nj\u00eb nga rrug\u00ebt detare m\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikshme n\u00eb bot\u00eb, duke detyruar SHBA-n\u00eb t\u00eb shoq\u00ebronte cisternat p\u00ebrmes ngushtic\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Sot, megjithat\u00eb, Irani disponon mjete shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb fuqishme, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb arsenale t\u00eb m\u00ebdha me raketa dhe dron\u00eb me kosto t\u00eb ul\u00ebt q\u00eb mund t\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnojn\u00eb lundrimin n\u00eb nj\u00eb zon\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb. Sulmet e k\u00ebtij muaji treguan se sa shpejt Teherani mund t\u00eb prish\u00eb trafikun n\u00eb Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit pa pasur nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr vendosje masive minash detare.<\/p>\n
\u201cN\u00ebse ekonomia globale merret peng, Trump do t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqet\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIrani \u00ebsht\u00eb ushtarakisht inferior, nuk ka asnj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb fitoj\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrballje t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb\u201d, tha Ali Vaez, drejtor i programit p\u00ebr Iranin n\u00eb International Crisis Group. Duke parashikuar goditje t\u00eb reja nga SHBA dhe Izraeli pas luft\u00ebs 12-ditore t\u00eb qershorit t\u00eb kaluar, Teherani ka shqyrtuar m\u00ebnyra p\u00ebr ta zgjeruar konfliktin \u201cn\u00eb koh\u00eb dhe n\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cN\u00ebse Irani e merr peng ekonomin\u00eb globale, Trump do t\u00eb jet\u00eb ai q\u00eb do t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqet i pari\u201d, shtoi ai.<\/p>\n
Burimet rajonale, q\u00eb k\u00ebrkuan anonimitet sepse nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb autorizuara t\u00eb flasin publikisht, than\u00eb se Garda Revolucionare Iraniane (IRGC) \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitur prej vitesh p\u00ebr nj\u00eb p\u00ebrballje me Izraelin dhe Uashingtonin.<\/p>\n
Sipas tyre, plani u aktivizua m\u00eb 28 shkurt, pas vrasjes s\u00eb Liderit Suprem Ajatollah Ali Khamenei n\u00eb dit\u00ebn e par\u00eb t\u00eb konfliktit.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb thelb t\u00eb strategjis\u00eb q\u00ebndron pranimi i kufizimeve ushtarake t\u00eb Iranit p\u00ebrball\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtar\u00ebve m\u00eb t\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, planifikuesit iranian\u00eb synojn\u00eb t\u00eb ushtrojn\u00eb presion mbi rrjedh\u00ebn globale t\u00eb naft\u00ebs, nd\u00ebrsa nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht kryejn\u00eb sulme asimetrike ndaj objektivave amerikane n\u00eb gjith\u00eb rajonin.<\/p>\n
Nga konflikt ushtarak n\u00eb tronditje ekonomike<\/p>\n
Kjo strategji synon t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb presion ekonomik, si brenda SHBA-s\u00eb ashtu edhe n\u00eb nivel nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, ndaj presidentit amerikan Donald Trump, me q\u00ebllim q\u00eb ai t\u00eb ndal\u00eb luft\u00ebn.<\/p>\n
\u201c\u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb shembull klasik i luft\u00ebs asimetrike, ku Irani arrin pasoja shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha \u2013 madje globale \u2013 p\u00ebrmes nj\u00eb numri t\u00eb vog\u00ebl sulmesh q\u00eb imponojn\u00eb kosto t\u00eb larta\u201d, tha Michael Eisenstadt nga Washington Institute.<\/p>\n
\u201cQ\u00ebllimi \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb krijohet dhimbje ekonomike, t\u00eb dob\u00ebsohet mb\u00ebshtetja p\u00ebr luft\u00ebn brenda Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara dhe t\u00eb rritet presioni ndaj Uashingtonit p\u00ebr t\u2019i dh\u00ebn\u00eb fund konfliktit.\u201d<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrqendroj\u00eb forcat n\u00eb nj\u00eb front t\u00eb vet\u00ebm, Irani po e shp\u00ebrndan fushat\u00ebn e tij p\u00ebrmes val\u00ebve t\u00eb sulmeve me raketa dhe dron\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Gjirin Persik \u2013 nj\u00eb taktik\u00eb q\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb p\u00ebrdorej kryesisht nga organizatat aleate t\u00eb Iranit n\u00eb Irak, Jemen, Siri dhe Liban.<\/p>\n
Kjo qasje pasqyron doktrin\u00ebn ushtarake t\u00eb zhvilluar nd\u00ebr dekada nga Garda Revolucionare, e cila bazohet n\u00eb supozimin se nj\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtar m\u00eb i fuqish\u00ebm do t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqej t\u00eb eliminonte udh\u00ebheqjen dhe komand\u00ebn iraniane q\u00eb n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb konfliktit.<\/p>\n
Kritika ndaj strategjis\u00eb amerikane<\/p>\n
Ali Vaez argumenton se SHBA hyn\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb pap\u00ebrgatitura, t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequra nga \u201cshum\u00eb d\u00ebshira dhe jo nga strategji t\u00eb menduara mir\u00eb\u201d.<\/p>\n
Sipas tij, Uashingtoni nuk kishte parashikuar sulmet me dron\u00eb ndaj vendeve t\u00eb Gjirit, nd\u00ebrprerjet n\u00eb rrug\u00ebt detare apo nevoj\u00ebn p\u00ebr evakuimin e civil\u00ebve \u2013 dob\u00ebsi q\u00eb tregojn\u00eb se nuk jan\u00eb nxjerr\u00eb m\u00ebsimet nga p\u00ebrdorimi modern i dron\u00ebve n\u00eb luft\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, doktrina e decentralizuar iraniane e quajtur \u201cMozaiku\u201d, e cila shp\u00ebrndan strukturat e komand\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u2019i mbijetuar goditjeve ndaj udh\u00ebheqjes, vazhdon t\u00eb funksionoj\u00eb n\u00ebn nj\u00eb b\u00ebrtham\u00eb qendrore koordinuese.<\/p>\n
Edhe pas vdekjes s\u00eb Khameneit, dy burime than\u00eb se kryetari i parlamentit Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, ish-komandant i Gard\u00ebs Revolucionare, dhe Ali Larijani, kreu i k\u00ebshillit t\u00eb siguris\u00eb komb\u00ebtare, po koordinojn\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjet e luft\u00ebs nga Teherani.<\/p>\n
Vaez vler\u00ebson se, megjith\u00ebse SHBA mund ta dob\u00ebsojn\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm Iranin, nj\u00eb disfat\u00eb e plot\u00eb e tij do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkonte nj\u00eb pushtim tok\u00ebsor me deri n\u00eb nj\u00eb milion ushtar\u00eb n\u00eb terren t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb \u2013 nj\u00eb angazhim p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilin Uashingtoni \u201cnuk ka vullnet\u201d.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump, i cili dikur premtonte se do t\u2019i mbante SHBA-t\u00eb larg nd\u00ebrhyrjeve ushtarake \u201ct\u00eb pamenduara\u201d, tani p\u00ebrballet me at\u00eb q\u00eb shum\u00eb ekspert\u00eb e konsiderojn\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb pa fund t\u00eb qart\u00eb, ndoshta fushat\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe ushtarake q\u00eb nga luft\u00ebrat n\u00eb Irak dhe Afganistan.<\/p>\n
Objektivi i menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm i Iranit \u00ebsht\u00eb mbijetesa, thekson Vaez. P\u00ebrtej k\u00ebsaj, q\u00ebllimi m\u00eb i gjer\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb detyroj\u00eb Uashingtonin t\u00eb pranoj\u00eb se presioni \u2013 p\u00ebrmes forc\u00ebs ushtarake, sanksioneve ekonomike apo izolimit diplomatik \u2013 nuk funksionon.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse ky \u201cmesazh\u201d do t\u00eb kuptohet realisht, mbetet e pasigurt. Megjithat\u00eb, duke e kthyer n\u00eb arm\u00eb korridorin m\u00eb kritik energjetik t\u00eb bot\u00ebs dhe duke zgjeruar konfliktin shum\u00eb p\u00ebrtej kufijve t\u00eb tij, Irani po baston se mund t\u00eb rezistoj\u00eb m\u00eb gjat\u00eb se nj\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtar shum\u00eb m\u00eb i fuqish\u00ebm. <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Shum\u00eb koh\u00eb p\u00ebrpara se Shtetet e Bashkuara dhe Izraeli t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmerrnin sulme ndaj Iranit, Republika Islamike kishte p\u00ebrgatitur tashm\u00eb \u201carm\u00ebn\u201d e saj strategjike: mbajtjen n\u00ebn presion t\u00eb arteris\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme t\u00eb transportit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb bot\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb balancuar ep\u00ebrsin\u00eb ushtarake t\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtar\u00ebve t\u00eb saj. K\u00ebshtu deklarojn\u00eb p\u00ebr Reuters tre burime rajonale q\u00eb kan\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-76298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76298"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76298\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}