Ka shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr n\u00eb favor t\u00eb tyre sesa thjesht \u201cshisni Amerik\u00ebn\u201d, shkruan The Economist. P\u00ebr pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb 20 viteve t\u00eb fundit, tregjet n\u00eb zhvillim (EM) jan\u00eb dukur sikur nuk do t\u00eb \u201cdalin\u201d kurr\u00eb v\u00ebrtet n\u00eb sken\u00eb. Ekonomit\u00eb n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb bot\u00ebs supozohej t\u2019u ofronin investitor\u00ebve m\u00eb t\u00eb guximsh\u00ebm mund\u00ebsin\u00eb p\u00ebr kthime shum\u00eb t\u00eb larta: p\u00ebrfitimin nga rritja m\u00eb e shpejt\u00eb e vendeve me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb mesme teksa afrohen me vendet e pasura.<\/p>\n
Sipas FMN-s\u00eb, ekonomit\u00eb n\u00eb zhvillim dhe ato n\u00eb zhvillim e sip\u00ebr, mesatarisht, e kan\u00eb rritur prodhimin m\u00eb shpejt se ekonomit\u00eb e p\u00ebrparuara \u00e7do vit k\u00ebt\u00eb shekull, shpesh me disa pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjeje diferenc\u00eb. Megjithat\u00eb, pas bumit t\u00eb madh t\u00eb viteve 2000, bursat e tyre, deri s\u00eb fundmi, kan\u00eb gjeneruar kthime t\u00eb dob\u00ebta. U desh deri n\u00eb vitin 2021 q\u00eb indeksi MSCI i aksioneve t\u00eb EM t\u00eb rikthehej n\u00eb kulmin e vitit 2007, vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u2019u rr\u00ebzuar s\u00ebrish shpejt, me mbi 40%.<\/p>\n
Tani aksionet e EM po rriten s\u00ebrish fuqish\u00ebm. Indeksi MSCI q\u00eb i ndjek u rrit me 34% n\u00eb vitin 2025, krahasuar me 21% p\u00ebr ekuivalentin e tregjeve t\u00eb zhvilluara. Nd\u00ebrsa ky vit sapo ka nisur, EM jan\u00eb rritur edhe me 9%.<\/p>\n
Monedhat, nga Peso meksikan te Ringiti malajzian, jan\u00eb forcuar kundrejt Dollarit. Kthimet e obligacioneve t\u00eb EM n\u00eb monedh\u00eb vendase kan\u00eb tejkaluar ato t\u00eb borxhit \u201chigh-yield\u201d amerikan apo europian. A mund t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb kjo ecuri e jasht\u00ebzakonshme?<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e madhe e p\u00ebrgjigjes varet nga ajo q\u00eb do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb me Dollarin. Q\u00eb nga fundi i viteve 1960, kur sistemi Bretton Woods i kurseve fikse t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit nisi t\u00eb shp\u00ebrb\u00ebhej, Dollari ka kaluar kat\u00ebr tregje t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb r\u00ebnie.<\/p>\n
\u00c7do her\u00eb, sipas analist\u00ebve t\u00eb Bank of America, aksionet e EM jan\u00eb rritur fuqish\u00ebm. Suksesi i fundit ka ardhur nd\u00ebrsa fuqia e Dollarit \u00ebsht\u00eb zbehur s\u00ebrish. Deri tani, krahasuar me nj\u00eb shport\u00eb monedhash t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb pasura, ai \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm 11% n\u00ebn kulmin e vitit 2025, nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie e leht\u00eb krahasuar me 41% mes viteve 2002 dhe 2008.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse tregtar\u00ebt vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb shesin dollar\u00eb, asetet e EM kan\u00eb shum\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar. Edhe pse qeverit\u00eb e vendeve n\u00eb zhvillim po marrin gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb borxh n\u00eb monedhat e tyre, sidomos n\u00eb Azi, shum\u00eb prej tyre ende kan\u00eb borxh t\u00eb madh n\u00eb dollar\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb dollar m\u00eb i dob\u00ebt e b\u00ebn k\u00ebt\u00eb borxh m\u00eb t\u00eb lir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u sh\u00ebrbyer dhe shlyer. N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, ai mb\u00ebshtet tregtin\u00eb nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare t\u00eb \u00e7muar n\u00eb dollar\u00eb, si eksportet e mallrave baz\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Dhe kapitali q\u00eb del nga Amerika duhet t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb diku. Alokimi mesatar i portofolave n\u00eb aksione EM nga menaxher\u00ebt aktiv\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb pran\u00eb nivelit m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt n\u00eb dy dekada, duke i b\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebto asete nj\u00eb zgjedhje t\u00eb dukshme p\u00ebr diversifikim.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, argumenti optimist p\u00ebr EM nuk mb\u00ebshtetet vet\u00ebm te strategjia \u201cshisni Amerik\u00ebn\u201d, pra ulja e ekspozimit ndaj aseteve amerikane. Ka tri arsye pse edhe investitor\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb fokusuar te Amerika duhet t\u2019i marrin n\u00eb konsiderat\u00eb: \u00e7mimet e ul\u00ebta relative t\u00eb aksioneve, q\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebria dhe potenciali p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrfituar nga rritja globale.<\/p>\n
\u00c7mimi i ul\u00ebt \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00ebrheqja m\u00eb e dukshme. Edhe pse aksionet EM duken t\u00eb shtrenjta krahasuar me historin\u00eb e tyre, rreth 13 her\u00eb fitimet e pritshme p\u00ebr vitin e ardhsh\u00ebm, ato mbeten rreth 40% m\u00eb t\u00eb lira se indeksi S&P 500 i SHBA-s\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Gjigant\u00ebt amerikan\u00eb t\u00eb teknologjis\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitojn\u00eb shum\u00eb nga IA, por edhe kompanit\u00eb n\u00eb Kin\u00eb, Kore t\u00eb Jugut dhe Tajvan. Investitor\u00ebt mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitojn\u00eb nga i nj\u00ebjti trend me \u00e7mime m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta dhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb diversifikim.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb rast goditjesh ekonomike globale, EM jan\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitura se m\u00eb par\u00eb. Vendet me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb mesme n\u00eb Amerik\u00ebn Latine dhe Azi kan\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar institucione m\u00eb t\u00eb forta, kan\u00eb grumbulluar rezerva valutore dhe kan\u00eb fuqizuar bankat qendrore.<\/p>\n
Kjo u pa n\u00eb vitin 2022, kur shum\u00eb prej tyre rrit\u00ebn normat e interesit para FED dhe BQE, duke ulur inflacionin me sukses. Investimi n\u00eb EM mbetet m\u00eb i rreziksh\u00ebm se n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e p\u00ebrparuara, por shum\u00eb m\u00eb pak se m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb fakt, panorama ekonomike globale duket shum\u00eb af\u00ebr kushteve ideale p\u00ebr EM. FMN parashikon rritje t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb globale n\u00eb vitin 2026, edhe pse m\u00eb t\u00eb ngadalt\u00eb, me EM q\u00eb pritet t\u00eb rriten 2.4 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjeje m\u00eb shpejt se ekonomit\u00eb e pasura.<\/p>\n
FED pritet t\u00eb ul\u00eb m\u00eb tej normat e interesit dhe frika p\u00ebr recesion \u00ebsht\u00eb e kufizuar. Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, situata nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb as shum\u00eb e nxeht\u00eb, as shum\u00eb e ftoht\u00eb, ideale p\u00ebr t\u00eb nxitur investime n\u00eb tregje pak m\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikshme, por me potencial m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb kthimi.<\/p>\n
Do t\u00eb ndihmonte n\u00ebse Donald Trump do t\u2019u jepte investitor\u00ebve edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb arsye p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur asetet amerikane, por edhe pa k\u00ebt\u00eb, rritja e EM mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb vet\u00ebm n\u00eb fillim.\/Monitor.al<\/p>\n
The post A mund t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb ecuria e jasht\u00ebzakonshme e tregjeve n\u00eb zhvillim?<\/a> appeared first on Lapsi.al<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ka shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr n\u00eb favor t\u00eb tyre sesa thjesht \u201cshisni Amerik\u00ebn\u201d, shkruan The Economist. P\u00ebr pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb 20 viteve t\u00eb fundit, tregjet n\u00eb zhvillim (EM) jan\u00eb dukur sikur nuk do t\u00eb \u201cdalin\u201d kurr\u00eb v\u00ebrtet n\u00eb sken\u00eb. Ekonomit\u00eb n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb bot\u00ebs supozohej t\u2019u ofronin investitor\u00ebve m\u00eb t\u00eb guximsh\u00ebm mund\u00ebsin\u00eb p\u00ebr kthime […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-75232","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75232","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75232"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75232\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75232"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75232"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75232"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}