Presidenti i Iranit, Masoud Pezeshkian befasoi shum\u00eb v\u00ebzhgues kur u k\u00ebrkoi falje fqinj\u00ebve p\u00ebr sulmet e fundit kund\u00ebr tyre, gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb fjalimi t\u00eb mbajtur t\u00eb shtun\u00ebn n\u00eb m\u00ebngjes si pjes\u00eb e udh\u00ebheqjes s\u00eb p\u00ebrkohshme t\u00eb vendit.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebrkimet e faljes midis shteteve jan\u00eb t\u00eb rralla, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht gjat\u00eb konfliktit aktiv, dhe formulimi binte n\u00eb sy. Udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit zakonisht shprehin \u201ckeqardhje\u201d ose distancohen nga p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebsia.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vend t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj, Pezeshkian pranoi drejtp\u00ebrdrejt se vendet fqinje ishin sh\u00ebnjestruar dhe tha se forcave iraniane tani u ishte k\u00ebrkuar t\u00eb ndalonin s\u00eb sulmuari ato, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 n\u00ebse sulmet ndaj Iranit nisin nga territori i tyre.<\/p>\n
\u201cE konsideroj t\u00eb nevojshme t\u2019u k\u00ebrkoj falje vendeve fqinje q\u00eb u sulmuan\u201d, tha ai. \u201cNe nuk kemi nd\u00ebrmend t\u00eb pushtojm\u00eb vendet fqinje.\u201d<\/p>\n
Vet\u00ebm kjo ngre pyetjen e par\u00eb: a ishte kjo nj\u00eb k\u00ebrkimfalje e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb dhe pse tani?<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb udh\u00ebheqja e p\u00ebrkohshme po p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbaj\u00eb pasojat n\u00eb zgjerim t\u00eb rajonit.<\/p>\n
Disa vende n\u00eb rajon jan\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb konflikt pas sulmeve t\u00eb nisura nga Shtetet e Bashkuara dhe Izraeli t\u00eb shtun\u00ebn, m\u00eb 28 shkurt.<\/p>\n
Pezeshkian sugjeroi q\u00eb k\u00ebto sulme u kryen sipas udh\u00ebzimeve \u201ct\u00eb q\u00eblloni me d\u00ebshir\u00eb\u201d, pasi vala fillestare e sulmeve vrau komandant\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb iranian\u00eb dhe prishi strukturat qendrore t\u00eb komand\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Duke k\u00ebrkuar falje, ai mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb duke u p\u00ebrpjekur t\u00eb sinjalizoj\u00eb se Teherani nuk d\u00ebshiron ta p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzoj\u00eb luft\u00ebn n\u00eb nj\u00eb konfrontim m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb rajonal.<\/p>\n
Mesazhi gjithashtu pranon n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb implicite nj\u00eb realitet politik: edhe n\u00ebse disa vende fqinje lejojn\u00eb forcat amerikane t\u00eb veprojn\u00eb nga bazat n\u00eb territorin e tyre, Irani rrezikon ta izoloj\u00eb veten m\u00eb tej n\u00ebse i sh\u00ebnjestron ato hapur.<\/p>\n
Por n\u00ebse k\u00ebrkimfalja p\u00ebrkthehet n\u00eb politik\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb pak e qart\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Raportet nga rajoni tregojn\u00eb se sulmet e lidhura me Iranin ose forcat e tij nuk jan\u00eb ndalur ende. Katari dhe Emiratet e Bashkuara Arabe than\u00eb t\u00eb shtun\u00ebn pasdite se kishin kapur raketa q\u00eb i kishin n\u00eb sh\u00ebnjest\u00ebr.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse sulme t\u00eb tilla vazhdojn\u00eb, kjo ngre nj\u00eb pyetje m\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb n\u00eb lidhje me kontrollin brenda struktur\u00ebs s\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7ar\u00eb t\u00eb lidershipit t\u00eb Iranit.<\/p>\n
Q\u00eb kur vala e par\u00eb e sulmeve vrau figura ky\u00e7e, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsin Suprem Ajatollah Ali Khamenei, vendimmarrja \u00ebsht\u00eb zhvendosur n\u00eb duart e nj\u00eb k\u00ebshilli t\u00eb p\u00ebrkohsh\u00ebm udh\u00ebheq\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb teori, kjo struktur\u00eb u jep figurave si Pezeshkian m\u00eb shum\u00eb ndikim sesa kishin m\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00ebn nj\u00eb sistem t\u00eb dominuar nga nj\u00eb autoritet i vet\u00ebm suprem.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, n\u00eb praktik\u00eb, aft\u00ebsia p\u00ebr t\u00eb kontrolluar institucione t\u00eb fuqishme ushtarake dhe t\u00eb siguris\u00eb, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb Garda Revolucionare, mbetet e pasigurt.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse sulmet e lidhura me Iranin ndaj shteteve fqinje vazhdojn\u00eb pavar\u00ebsisht deklarat\u00ebs s\u00eb presidentit, kjo do t\u00eb sugjeronte ose nd\u00ebrprerje t\u00eb komunikimit ose rezistenc\u00eb nga fraksionet q\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb gatshme t\u00eb zvog\u00eblojn\u00eb konfrontimin.<\/p>\n
Element\u00ebt e vij\u00ebs s\u00eb ashp\u00ebr brenda establishmentit t\u00eb siguris\u00eb kan\u00eb argumentuar prej koh\u00ebsh se presioni rajonal \u00ebsht\u00eb pengesa m\u00eb e fort\u00eb e Iranit kund\u00ebr fuqis\u00eb ushtarake t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb dhe Izraelit.<\/p>\n
Reagimet e brendshme gjithashtu pasqyrojn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb tension. Disa p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsues t\u00eb linj\u00ebs s\u00eb ashp\u00ebr i kan\u00eb kritikuar tashm\u00eb komentet e Pezeshkian si t\u00eb dob\u00ebta.<\/p>\n
Momenti aktual politik n\u00eb Iran \u00ebsht\u00eb i pazakont\u00eb: disa nga figurat m\u00eb t\u00eb fuqishme t\u00eb vij\u00ebs s\u00eb ashp\u00ebr n\u00eb krye t\u00eb sistemit jan\u00eb larguar, por shum\u00eb zyrtar\u00eb dhe komandant\u00eb t\u00eb rangut t\u00eb ul\u00ebt mbeten thell\u00ebsisht dyshues ndaj \u00e7do toni pajtues.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr ta, k\u00ebrkimfalja ndaj qeverive t\u00eb huaja rrezikon t\u00eb duket si kapitullim n\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb krize komb\u00ebtare.<\/p>\n
Jasht\u00eb Iranit, reagimi \u00ebsht\u00eb form\u00ebsuar nga nj\u00eb narrativ\u00eb shum\u00eb e ndryshme. Donald Trump shpejt deklaroi n\u00eb Truth Social se Irani kishte \u201ck\u00ebrkuar falje dhe ishte dor\u00ebzuar\u201d ndaj fqinj\u00ebve t\u00eb tij, duke argumentuar se ky veprim v\u00ebrtetoi se presioni ushtarak i SHBA-s\u00eb dhe Izraelit po funksiononte.<\/p>\n
Gjuha zbulon gjithashtu se si Uashingtoni mund t\u2019i interpretoj\u00eb sinjalet e Teheranit. Trump ka k\u00ebmb\u00ebngulur vazhdimisht se i vetmi rezultat i pranuesh\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb \u201cdor\u00ebzimi total\u201d i Iranit.<\/p>\n
Kjo k\u00ebrkes\u00eb krijon nj\u00eb paradoks diplomatik.<\/p>\n
Historikisht, vendet rrall\u00eb pranojn\u00eb dor\u00ebzimin pa kushte vet\u00ebm n\u00eb fushatat ajrore, pavar\u00ebsisht se sa intensive jan\u00eb bombardimet. Pa forca tok\u00ebsore, imponimi i nj\u00eb rezultati t\u00eb till\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Interpretimi i k\u00ebrkimfaljes s\u00eb Pezeshkianit si nj\u00eb form\u00eb kapitullimi mund t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbej\u00eb si nj\u00eb ur\u00eb politike p\u00ebr Uashingtonin: nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb pretenduar p\u00ebrparim pa braktisur zyrtarisht k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn p\u00ebr dor\u00ebzim.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr Pezeshkian dhe k\u00ebshillin e p\u00ebrkohsh\u00ebm udh\u00ebheq\u00ebs, llogaritja mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb e ndryshme.<\/p>\n
Arritja e nj\u00eb arm\u00ebpushimi tani mund t\u00eb stabilizoj\u00eb situat\u00ebn p\u00ebrpara se t\u00eb dal\u00eb nj\u00eb udh\u00ebheq\u00ebs i ri i p\u00ebrhersh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse figura e radh\u00ebs q\u00eb do t\u00eb dominoj\u00eb sistemin politik t\u00eb Iranit do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb klerik i linj\u00ebs s\u00eb ashp\u00ebr, perspektivat p\u00ebr diplomaci mund t\u00eb ngushtoheshin edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Kjo mund\u00ebsi ngre nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr pyetje strategjike: a po e pozicionon Pezeshkian veten si nj\u00eb figur\u00eb e negociueshme, lloji i udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit pragmatik me t\u00eb cilin qeverit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore mund t\u00eb preferojn\u00eb t\u00eb merren?<\/p>\n
N\u00eb fjalimin e tij, ai u p\u00ebrpoq t\u00eb balanconte sfid\u00ebn dhe hapjen, duke hedhur posht\u00eb dor\u00ebzimin nd\u00ebrsa sinjalizoi p\u00ebrmbajtje ndaj shteteve fqinje.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, lufta p\u00ebr udh\u00ebheqjen e ardhshme t\u00eb Iranit tashm\u00eb ka filluar t\u00eb marr\u00eb form\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Figura t\u00eb ndryshme politike dhe klerike, si dhe komandant\u00eb brenda IRGC-s\u00eb dhe forcave t\u00eb siguris\u00eb, mund ta shohin kriz\u00ebn aktuale si nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr t\u00eb forcuar pozicionin e tyre.<\/p>\n
Disa po i b\u00ebjn\u00eb thirrje Asambles\u00eb s\u00eb Ekspert\u00ebve q\u00eb t\u00eb veproj\u00eb shpejt p\u00ebr t\u00eb zgjedhur udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsin e ardhsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse Pezeshkian nuk arrin t\u00eb sjell\u00eb stabilitet ose t\u00eb vendos\u00eb kontroll mbi forcat e armatosura, rival\u00ebt mund t\u00eb argumentojn\u00eb se nevojitet nj\u00eb qasje m\u00eb e ashp\u00ebr.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr momentin, testi i menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm ndodhet jasht\u00eb kufijve t\u00eb Iranit.<\/p>\n
Deri m\u00eb tani, shum\u00eb vende fqinje kan\u00eb reaguar me kujdes ose kan\u00eb heshtur, duke pritur t\u00eb shohin n\u00ebse k\u00ebrkimfalja do t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb n\u00eb ndryshime t\u00eb v\u00ebrteta n\u00eb terren.<\/p>\n
Izraeli, i cili e sheh konfliktin si nj\u00eb shans t\u00eb rrall\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb dob\u00ebsuar at\u00eb q\u00eb e sheh si k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim afatgjat\u00eb t\u00eb Iranit, mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb pak i prirur ta interpretoj\u00eb mesazhin si nj\u00eb hap t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb drejt uljes s\u00eb tensioneve.<\/p>\n
Paqart\u00ebsia mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb e q\u00ebllimshme.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebrkes\u00ebfalja e Pezeshkian l\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb \u200b\u200bp\u00ebr disa interpretime: nj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje e sinqert\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb qet\u00ebsuar tensionet rajonale, nj\u00eb veprim taktik p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar koh\u00eb p\u00ebr udh\u00ebheqjen e p\u00ebrkohshme t\u00eb Iranit, apo sinjali hap\u00ebs i nj\u00eb ripozicionimi politik brenda vet\u00eb Teheranit.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb nj\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb form\u00ebsuar po aq shum\u00eb nga luft\u00ebrat e brendshme p\u00ebr pushtet sa edhe nga lufta e jashtme, mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb treja nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht.\/BBC<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Presidenti i Iranit, Masoud Pezeshkian befasoi shum\u00eb v\u00ebzhgues kur u k\u00ebrkoi falje fqinj\u00ebve p\u00ebr sulmet e fundit kund\u00ebr tyre, gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb fjalimi t\u00eb mbajtur t\u00eb shtun\u00ebn n\u00eb m\u00ebngjes si pjes\u00eb e udh\u00ebheqjes s\u00eb p\u00ebrkohshme t\u00eb vendit. K\u00ebrkimet e faljes midis shteteve jan\u00eb t\u00eb rralla, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht gjat\u00eb konfliktit aktiv, dhe formulimi binte n\u00eb sy. Udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit zakonisht […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-75219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75219","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75219"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75219\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75219"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75219"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75219"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}