Konflikti ka ekspozuar se sa shum\u00eb rritja varet nga furnizimet me energji p\u00ebrmes Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit. Nd\u00ebrsa Donald Trump gjat\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar ka nisur nj\u00eb luft\u00eb tregtare, ka sulmuar institucionet amerikane p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Rezerv\u00ebn Federale dhe ka k\u00ebrc\u00ebnuar aleat\u00ebt p\u00ebr Groenland\u00ebn, rritja globale ka rezultuar e q\u00ebndrueshme. Inflacioni ka vijuar t\u00eb bjer\u00eb dhe tregjet e aksioneve n\u00eb Europ\u00eb dhe gjetk\u00eb kan\u00eb sh\u00ebnuar rekorde t\u00eb reja pavar\u00ebsisht goditjeve tarifore.<\/p>\n
Tani, nd\u00ebrsa sulmi i SHBA-s\u00eb dhe Izraelit ndaj Iranit po shtrihet n\u00eb nj\u00eb konflikt m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb rajonal, tregjet e naft\u00ebs jan\u00eb kanali ky\u00e7 p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuar n\u00ebse kjo trajektore relativisht e favorshme do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb, duke pasur parasysh potencialin q\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimi t\u00eb nd\u00ebrpres\u00eb furnizimet.<\/p>\n
Pyetja \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse SHBA-ja dhe partner\u00ebt e saj mund t\u00eb shmangin nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrprerje t\u00eb zgjatur t\u00eb d\u00ebrgesave t\u00eb energjis\u00eb p\u00ebrmes Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit, q\u00eb shtrihet p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb bregdetit jugor t\u00eb Iranit. N\u00ebse trafiku vazhdon dhe rritjet e \u00e7mimeve frenohen nga vendimi i s\u00eb diel\u00ebs i prodhuesve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur prodhimin, d\u00ebmi ndaj rritjes mund t\u00eb mbetet i kufizuar.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse jo, nj\u00eb rritje e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb energjis\u00eb rrezikon t\u00eb ndez\u00eb s\u00ebrish inflacionin n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb kryesore, t\u00eb prish\u00eb planet e bankave qendrore p\u00ebr uljen e normave t\u00eb interesit dhe t\u00eb trondit\u00eb besimin e bizneseve. \u201cNafta \u00ebsht\u00eb kanali kritik,\u201d tha Neil Shearing, kryeekonomist n\u00eb Capital Economics.<\/p>\n
Sa e fort\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb rritja e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs?<\/strong><\/p>\n Ekzistojn\u00eb dy skenar\u00eb kryesor\u00eb p\u00ebr tregjet e energjis\u00eb, tha Edward Fishman, studiues i lart\u00eb n\u00eb Council on Foreign Relations dhe autor i \u201cChokepoints\u201d, nj\u00eb lib\u00ebr mbi luft\u00ebn ekonomike amerikane.<\/p>\n Sipas nj\u00ebrit, ka nj\u00eb \u201cnd\u00ebrprerje t\u00eb konsiderueshme dhe t\u00eb zgjatur t\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb trafikut p\u00ebrmes Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit, q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb pika m\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme detare n\u00eb bot\u00eb\u201d, tha ai. Duke qen\u00eb se p\u00ebrmes k\u00ebsaj ngushtice kalon rreth nj\u00eb n\u00eb pes\u00eb fu\u00e7i nafte n\u00eb bot\u00eb, n\u00ebse ajo mbyllet \u201cdo t\u00eb p\u00ebrballemi me nj\u00eb goditje monumentale p\u00ebr \u00e7mimin global t\u00eb naft\u00ebs\u201d.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb skenar i till\u00eb mund t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs mbi 100 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i, parashikojn\u00eb analist\u00ebt. Nafta Brent \u00ebsht\u00eb tashm\u00eb pran\u00eb nivelit m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb n\u00eb shtat\u00eb muaj, 73 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i, pasi \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur me gati 12% gjat\u00eb muajit t\u00eb fundit p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb pritshm\u00ebrive n\u00eb rritje p\u00ebr konflikt mes SHBA-s\u00eb dhe Iranit.<\/p>\n Tregjet e gazit natyror gjithashtu do t\u00eb ndikoheshin, duke nxitur presione inflacioniste n\u00eb tregje t\u00eb m\u00ebdha p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Europ\u00ebn.<\/p>\n Skenari m\u00eb i mundsh\u00ebm dhe m\u00eb pak i d\u00ebmsh\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb mos ket\u00eb nj\u00eb mbyllje t\u00eb plot\u00eb t\u00eb ngushtic\u00ebs, por q\u00eb shitjet e naft\u00ebs s\u00eb vet Iranit t\u00eb nd\u00ebrpriten, argumentoi Fishman. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast, nj\u00eb rritje e \u00e7mimit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 80 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e mundshme.<\/p>\n N\u00ebse prodhues t\u00eb tjer\u00eb rrisin prodhimin, ndikimi mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb i kufizuar. T\u00eb diel\u00ebn Opec+ tha se do t\u00eb rris\u00eb prodhimin e naft\u00ebs n\u00eb prill me 206 mij\u00eb fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa grupi i udh\u00ebhequr nga Arabia Saudite k\u00ebrkoi t\u00eb qet\u00ebsoj\u00eb tregjet. Rritja \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e vog\u00ebl nga sa prisnin disa analist\u00eb dhe v\u00ebzhgues t\u00eb Opec+.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb rritje prej 10 dollar\u00ebsh p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i \u201cnuk do t\u00eb ndryshoj\u00eb shum\u00eb\u201d inflacionin dhe rritjen, tha Shearing i Capital Economics.<\/p>\n Nd\u00ebrsa Irani \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb furnizues i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm p\u00ebr ekonomi si Kina, ai nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb kritik p\u00ebr konsumin global t\u00eb naft\u00ebs. Sipas Agjencis\u00eb Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare t\u00eb Energjis\u00eb, ai prodhoi 3.45 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb n\u00eb janar, m\u00eb pak se 3% e furnizimit global.<\/p>\n Sa ndikim do t\u00eb kishte nafta 100 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr rritjen n\u00eb SHBA?<\/p>\n SHBA-ja \u00ebsht\u00eb tashm\u00eb kryesisht e vet\u00eb-mjaftueshme n\u00eb energji. T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat nga Administrata Amerikane e Informacionit p\u00ebr Energjin\u00eb tregojn\u00eb se vet\u00ebm 17% e energjis\u00eb s\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur nga amerikan\u00ebt n\u00eb 2024 ishte e importuar, pjesa m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt n\u00eb 40 vjet.<\/p>\n Por kjo nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se nd\u00ebrprerja e flukseve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs nga Gjiri do t\u00eb ishte e par\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb amerikane, duke pasur parasysh ndikimin mbi \u00e7mimet referenc\u00eb globale.<\/p>\n \u201c\u00c7mimet shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta globale t\u00eb naft\u00ebs mund t\u2019u shkaktojn\u00eb probleme konsumator\u00ebve amerikan\u00eb dhe korporatave,\u201d tha James Knightley, ekonomist p\u00ebr SHBA n\u00eb ING.<\/p>\n Kjo do t\u00eb p\u00ebrkthehej n\u00eb \u00e7mime m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb benzin\u00ebs, duke ushtruar presion t\u00eb duksh\u00ebm mbi konsumator\u00ebt, shum\u00eb prej t\u00eb cil\u00ebve tashm\u00eb ankohen p\u00ebr kriz\u00ebn e kostos s\u00eb jetes\u00ebs p\u00ebrpara zgjedhjeve vendimtare t\u00eb mesmandatit n\u00eb n\u00ebntor.<\/p>\n Nafta 100 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i mund ta \u00e7oj\u00eb inflacionin e konsumatorit nga 2.4% n\u00eb janar n\u00eb mbi 4%, vler\u00ebson Knightley. Rezerva Federale synon inflacion 2% sipas indeksit t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb konsumit personal.<\/p>\n N\u00eb afat t\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr, kjo do ta b\u00ebnte m\u00eb pak t\u00eb mundshme q\u00eb Rezerva Federale t\u00eb ul\u00eb normat e interesit m\u00eb von\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb vit.<\/p>\n Lufta 12-ditore e vitit t\u00eb kaluar mes Iranit dhe Izraelit pati vet\u00ebm ndikime kalimtare n\u00eb \u00e7mimet e mallrave, por nj\u00eb konflikt m\u00eb i gjat\u00eb dhe m\u00eb i ashp\u00ebr do ta dob\u00ebsonte ekonomin\u00eb n\u00eb SHBA dhe gjetk\u00eb.<\/p>\n \u201c\u00c7do rritje e q\u00ebndrueshme prej 10 dollar\u00ebsh p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i mund t\u00eb ul\u00eb rritjen me 10\u201320 pik\u00eb baz\u00eb gjat\u00eb 12 muajve t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm,\u201d tha Ajay Rajadhyaksha, drejtues i k\u00ebrkimit p\u00ebr normat dhe produktet e sekuritizuara n\u00eb Barclays. \u201cN\u00ebse nafta do t\u00eb shkonte n\u00eb 120 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i dhe do t\u00eb q\u00ebndronte aty, ekonomia amerikane (dhe ajo bot\u00ebrore) do t\u00eb merrte nj\u00eb goditje t\u00eb konsiderueshme.\u201d<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb efekt tjet\u00ebr an\u00ebsor, sipas ekonomist\u00ebve t\u00eb Barclays, mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb rritja e fort\u00eb e dollarit.<\/p>\n \u201cNgjarjet n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme tregojn\u00eb rreziqe t\u00eb larta p\u00ebr nj\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb zgjatur dhe \u00e7mime m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb naft\u00ebs. Historikisht, goditje t\u00eb tilla mb\u00ebshtesin dollarin,\u201d tha Themistoklis Fiotakis, ekonomist n\u00eb Barclays.<\/p>\n Banka pret q\u00eb dollari t\u00eb rritet kundrejt nj\u00eb shporte valutash globale \u201crreth 0.5\u20131% p\u00ebr \u00e7do rritje prej 10% t\u00eb \u00e7mimit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs\u201d.<\/p>\n Si do t\u00eb ndikoheshin ekonomit\u00eb e tjera?<\/strong><\/p>\n Kina \u00ebsht\u00eb bler\u00ebse e madhe e naft\u00ebs nga Gjiri Persik, q\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se ekonomia e saj do t\u00eb d\u00ebmtohej nga nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrprerje serioze e trafikut. Rreth 84% e naft\u00ebs dhe kondensatit, dhe 83% e gazit natyror t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm q\u00eb kaluan p\u00ebrmes Ngushtic\u00ebs n\u00eb 2024, kishin destinacion tregjet aziatike, sipas Administrat\u00ebs Amerikane t\u00eb Informacionit p\u00ebr Energjin\u00eb.<\/p>\n Kina, India, Japonia dhe Koreja e Jugut ishin destinacionet kryesore.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb rritje e naft\u00ebs Brent n\u00eb 100 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i mund t\u00eb shtoj\u00eb 0.6\u20130.7% n\u00eb inflacionin global, sipas analist\u00ebve t\u00eb Capital Economics.<\/p>\n Europa gjithashtu do t\u00eb ishte nd\u00ebr ekonomit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb prekura nga rritja jo vet\u00ebm e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs, por edhe e kostove t\u00eb LNG-s\u00eb.<\/p>\n Ndikimi i menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm n\u00eb politik\u00ebn e Bank\u00ebs Qendrore Europiane mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb relativisht i kufizuar, megjithat\u00eb, pasi inflacioni n\u00eb Eurozon\u00eb mbetet n\u00ebn objektiv n\u00eb 1.7%. Kjo mund t\u2019i lejoj\u00eb bank\u00ebs t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb politik\u00ebn aktuale pa ndryshime.<\/p>\n P\u00ebr Bank\u00ebn e Anglis\u00eb, implikimet e nj\u00eb rritjeje t\u00eb fort\u00eb t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb menj\u00ebhershme, tha Hetal Mehta, kryeekonomiste n\u00eb St James\u2019s Place.<\/p>\n Reagimi \u201cklasik\u201d i bankave qendrore ndaj rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb ta \u201cinjorojn\u00eb\u201d rritjen dhe t\u00eb mos reagojn\u00eb, pasi ndikimi afatgjat\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb disinflacionist, sepse fuqia bler\u00ebse e konsumator\u00ebve dob\u00ebsohet nga kostot m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb energjis\u00eb.<\/p>\n Por kjo mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr Komitetin e Politik\u00ebs Monetare t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Anglis\u00eb, i cili \u00ebsht\u00eb i ndar\u00eb p\u00ebr uljen e norm\u00ebs s\u00eb interesit q\u00eb n\u00eb mbledhjen e k\u00ebtij muaji.<\/p>\n \u00c7far\u00eb rreziqesh t\u00eb tjera ekonomike do t\u00eb burojn\u00eb nga konflikti?<\/strong><\/p>\n Konflikti vjen n\u00eb nj\u00eb moment t\u00eb tensionuar p\u00ebr tregjet financiare globale. T\u00eb premten aksionet e bankave amerikane p\u00ebsuan r\u00ebnien m\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb q\u00eb nga goditja e tarifave t\u00eb Trump n\u00eb prill, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsimeve p\u00ebr nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie n\u00eb kreditimin privat dhe ndikimin e IA-s\u00eb mbi bizneset e m\u00ebdha.<\/p>\n Aksionet teknologjike amerikane vazhduan r\u00ebnien e lidhur me IA-n\u00eb, duke e \u00e7uar r\u00ebnien e Nasdaq Composite n\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 3% n\u00eb shkurt.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb konflikt i zgjatur n\u00eb Gjirin Persik q\u00eb destabilizon tregjet globale t\u00eb energjis\u00eb do t\u00eb jepte nj\u00eb goditje tjet\u00ebr p\u00ebr besimin n\u00eb tregje, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00ebse shkakton shqet\u00ebsime se Rezerva Federale ka m\u00eb pak gjasa t\u00eb leht\u00ebsoj\u00eb politik\u00ebn monetare.<\/p>\n Ai mund t\u00eb d\u00ebmtoj\u00eb gjithashtu optimizmin e bizneseve dhe t\u00eb frenoj\u00eb investimet. Megjithat\u00eb, analist\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb mbeten m\u00eb optimist\u00eb, duke pasur parasysh performanc\u00ebn e fort\u00eb t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb globale gjat\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar p\u00ebrball\u00eb shum\u00eb goditjeve.<\/p>\n \u201cPavar\u00ebsisht gjith\u00eb list\u00ebs s\u00eb ngjarjeve gjeopolitike koh\u00ebt e fundit, niveli i rritjes s\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb dhe tregtis\u00eb globale ka qen\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht i q\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm,\u201d tha Innes McFee, kryeekonomist n\u00eb Oxford Economics.\/Monitor.al<\/p>\n The post \u00c7far\u00eb do t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb n\u00eb Iran me ekonomin\u00eb globale?<\/a> appeared first on Lapsi.al<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Konflikti ka ekspozuar se sa shum\u00eb rritja varet nga furnizimet me energji p\u00ebrmes Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit. Nd\u00ebrsa Donald Trump gjat\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar ka nisur nj\u00eb luft\u00eb tregtare, ka sulmuar institucionet amerikane p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Rezerv\u00ebn Federale dhe ka k\u00ebrc\u00ebnuar aleat\u00ebt p\u00ebr Groenland\u00ebn, rritja globale ka rezultuar e q\u00ebndrueshme. Inflacioni ka vijuar t\u00eb bjer\u00eb dhe tregjet e […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-74087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74087"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74087\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}