Nj\u00eb regjim miq\u00ebsor n\u00eb Teheran do t\u00eb ishte rezultati ideal. Por Netanyahu do t\u00eb ishte i k\u00ebnaqur edhe me nj\u00eb Iran tep\u00ebr t\u00eb dob\u00ebt p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndjekur programin b\u00ebrthamor dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb financuar milicit\u00eb aleate.<\/p>\n
Prej vitesh, Benjamin Netanyahu ka qen\u00eb forca shtyt\u00ebse pas veprimeve ushtarake dhe sabotazhit kund\u00ebr programit b\u00ebrthamor t\u00eb Iranit dhe qeveris\u00eb s\u00eb tij klerikale. Tani q\u00eb Udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsi Suprem iranian, Ajatollah Ali Khamenei, ka vdekur, Netanyahu \u00ebsht\u00eb pran\u00eb realizimit t\u00eb ambicies s\u00eb tij m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe politike: neutralizimit t\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimit iranian.<\/p>\n
Plani izraelit p\u00ebr \u201cdit\u00ebn pas\u201d l\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb dor\u00eb t\u00eb fatit \u2014 dhe t\u00eb guximit t\u00eb miliona iranian\u00ebve. Nga Tabrizi n\u00eb Zahedan, qytetar\u00ebt iranian\u00eb pritet t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbysin aparatin brutal t\u00eb siguris\u00eb s\u00eb regjimit p\u00ebrmes protestave masive, pa nj\u00eb ide t\u00eb qart\u00eb se \u00e7far\u00eb lloj qeverie mund t\u00eb pasoj\u00eb teokracin\u00eb.<\/p>\n
T\u00eb shtun\u00ebn n\u00eb mbr\u00ebmje, Netanyahu u b\u00ebri thirrje iranian\u00ebve t\u00eb \u201c\u00e7lirohen nga tirania\u201d, duke shfryt\u00ebzuar nj\u00eb \u201cmund\u00ebsi q\u00eb vjen nj\u00eb her\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb brez\u201d p\u00ebr t\u00eb rr\u00ebzuar diktatur\u00ebn. \u201cDilni masivisht n\u00eb rrug\u00eb\u201d dhe \u201cp\u00ebrfundoni pun\u00ebn\u201d, tha ai. N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn linj\u00eb, presidenti amerikan Donald Trump k\u00ebmb\u00ebngul se iranian\u00ebt kan\u00eb \u201cmund\u00ebsin\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe\u201d p\u00ebr ta \u201crimarr\u00eb\u201d vendin e tyre.<\/p>\n
Netanyahu duket se beson se del fitues edhe n\u00ebse kryengritja popullore q\u00eb ai k\u00ebrkon e zhyt vendin n\u00eb kaos t\u00eb dhunsh\u00ebm. N\u00eb skenarin ideal, n\u00eb Teheran shfaqet nj\u00eb regjim miq\u00ebsor. Por Izraeli shpesh ka b\u00ebr\u00eb llogari realpolitike se edhe trazirat mund t\u2019i sh\u00ebrbejn\u00eb interesave t\u00eb tij.<\/p>\n
Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb Liban dhe Siri. Netanyahu nuk ka ndihmuar autoritetet libaneze p\u00ebr t\u00eb disiplinuar milicin\u00eb shiite Hezbollah apo p\u00ebr ta \u00e7armatosur at\u00eb \u2014 p\u00ebrkundrazi, ka vazhduar sulmet ajrore dhe me dron\u00eb. Po ashtu, ka ushtruar presion ndaj udh\u00ebheqjes s\u00eb re n\u00eb Damask duke mb\u00ebshtetur pakic\u00ebn druze. N\u00eb territoret palestineze, ai shpesh akuzohet se shfryt\u00ebzon p\u00ebr\u00e7arjet mes Hamasit dhe Autoritetit Palestinez.<\/p>\n
Logjika \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb: n\u00ebse vendet jan\u00eb t\u00eb zhytura n\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7arje t\u00eb brendshme apo edhe luft\u00eb civile, ato nuk mund t\u00eb organizohen kund\u00ebr Izraelit. Prandaj, do t\u00eb ishte gabim t\u00eb mendohej se stabiliteti n\u00eb Teheran \u00ebsht\u00eb i vetmi objektiv i d\u00ebshiruesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr Netanyahun. Edhe paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebria mund t\u00eb funksionoj\u00eb. N\u00ebse Irani \u00ebsht\u00eb tep\u00ebr i dob\u00ebt p\u00ebr t\u00eb pasuruar uranium dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur Hezbollahun n\u00eb Liban apo Huthit n\u00eb Jemen, kjo konsiderohet gjithashtu fitore.<\/p>\n
Sipas k\u00ebshilltarit t\u00eb politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme t\u00eb Netanyahut, Ophir Falk, q\u00ebllimi \u00ebsht\u00eb i thjesht\u00eb: \u201cT\u00eb fitojm\u00eb.\u201d Fitore do t\u00eb thot\u00eb \u201cheqja e k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimit q\u00eb paraqet regjimi i Ajatollahut dhe p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuesit e tij\u201d.<\/p>\n
Ish-kryeministri izraelit Ehud Olmert i tha POLITICO se ajo q\u00eb kan\u00eb p\u00ebrshkruar Netanyahu dhe Trump nuk p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb plan \u2014 por thjesht optimiz\u00ebm. \u201cBibi donte luft\u00ebn dhe Trump d\u00ebshironte t\u00eb b\u00ebnte di\u00e7ka t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme. Por nuk shoh ndonj\u00eb plan p\u00ebrve\u00e7 shpres\u00ebs se qeveria do t\u00eb shembet,\u201d tha ai.<\/p>\n
Strategjia e goditjes s\u00eb nj\u00eb armiku me forc\u00eb d\u00ebrrmuese dhe m\u00eb pas shpres\u00ebs p\u00ebr nj\u00eb kalim t\u00eb qet\u00eb drejt nj\u00eb regjimi dashamir\u00ebs ka nj\u00eb histori t\u00eb dob\u00ebt suksesi. Ka tashm\u00eb shenja se situata n\u00eb Iran mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet e \u00e7rregullt.<\/p>\n
Para pushtimit t\u00eb Irakut n\u00eb vitin 2003, gjenerali Colin Powell paralajm\u00ebroi presidentin George W. Bush: \u201cN\u00ebse e rr\u00ebzon nj\u00eb qeveri, b\u00ebhesh ti p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebs p\u00ebr vendin.\u201d Kjo duket se nuk po i shqet\u00ebson Netanyahu dhe Trump, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt e shohin situat\u00ebn si nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjegj\u00ebsi q\u00eb tashm\u00eb u takon iranian\u00ebve.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb bast i madh.<\/p>\n
Sipas transmetuesit publik izraelit Kan, Netanyahu u ka th\u00ebn\u00eb ministrave se vdekja e Khameneit do ta shkurtoj\u00eb operacionin ushtarak, pasi do t\u00eb inkurajoj\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtar\u00ebt e regjimit t\u00eb ngrihen.<\/p>\n
Shum\u00eb pak dyshojn\u00eb n\u00eb d\u00ebshir\u00ebn e shumic\u00ebs s\u00eb iranian\u00ebve p\u00ebr ndryshim, por p\u00ebr t\u00eb r\u00ebn\u00eb regjimi duhet t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb thyerje brenda sh\u00ebrbimeve t\u00eb siguris\u00eb. Deri tani, shtylla politike dhe ushtarake e shtetit duket se po tregon rezistenc\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa protestat masive t\u00eb viteve t\u00eb fundit jan\u00eb shtypur me forc\u00eb brutale, arrestime dhe ekzekutime.<\/p>\n
Edhe pse ka humbur shum\u00eb lider\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb, Irani ka arritur t\u00eb kryej\u00eb sulme hakmarr\u00ebse n\u00eb Gjirin Persik dhe Mesdheun lindor. Garda Revolucionare \u00ebsht\u00eb zotuar p\u00ebr \u201chakmarrje\u201d dhe ka deklaruar se ka zhvilluar faz\u00ebn e gjasht\u00eb t\u00eb operacionit t\u00eb saj kund\u00ebr bazave amerikane dhe Izraelit.<\/p>\n
Kjo sugjeron se struktura e regjimit po q\u00ebndron ende. Kryetari i parlamentit iranian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, tha se jan\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr skenar\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb. Nj\u00eb k\u00ebshill trean\u00ebtar\u00ebsh \u00ebsht\u00eb ngritur p\u00ebr t\u00eb drejtuar vendin p\u00ebrkoh\u00ebsisht derisa Asambleja e Ekspert\u00ebve t\u00eb zgjedh\u00eb nj\u00eb udh\u00ebheq\u00ebs t\u00eb ri.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, Izraeli pritet t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb pengoj\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb proces, si\u00e7 b\u00ebri m\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb Liban duke goditur pasardh\u00ebs t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm t\u00eb lider\u00ebve t\u00eb Hezbollahut.<\/p>\n
Ish-kryeministri Olmert paralajm\u00ebroi se do t\u00eb ishte i befasuar n\u00ebse Irani do t\u00eb ndryshonte natyr\u00eb kaq shpejt. Ai kujtoi se regjimit sirian iu desh\u00ebn 10 vjet p\u00ebr t\u2019u shembur pas nj\u00eb lufte t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjakshme. \u201cIrani ka 90 milion\u00eb banor\u00eb. Regjimi mund t\u00eb vras\u00eb shum\u00eb dhe prap\u00eb t\u00eb mos humbas\u00eb kontrollin,\u201d tha ai.<\/p>\n
Pyetja e madhe mbetet: a mund t\u00eb funksionoj\u00eb kjo pa nj\u00eb opozit\u00eb t\u00eb bashkuar?<\/p>\n
Sipas analistit Danny Citrinowicz, nuk ka nj\u00eb opozit\u00eb t\u00eb unifikuar dhe t\u00eb organizuar q\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfitoj\u00eb menj\u00ebher\u00eb nga kaosi. Pak\u00ebnaq\u00ebsia publike \u00ebsht\u00eb reale, por fragmentimi dhe represioni e kufizojn\u00eb p\u00ebrkthimin e saj n\u00eb ndryshim politik. Parashikimet p\u00ebr shembjen e regjimit mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb parakohshme.<\/p>\n
Ekziston gjithashtu rreziku i nj\u00eb fushate t\u00eb zgjatur q\u00eb nuk sjell ndryshim dramatik t\u00eb brendsh\u00ebm dhe q\u00eb p\u00ebrfundon n\u00eb nj\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb hapur pa fund t\u00eb duksh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse Republika Islamike do t\u00eb shembej, disa figura rivale po p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb pozicionohen. Reza Pahlavi, djali i Shahut t\u00eb rr\u00ebzuar n\u00eb vitin 1979, paraqitet si lider i p\u00ebrkohsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequr tranzicionin drejt demokracis\u00eb. Organizata opozitare Mujahedin-e Khalq gjithashtu pretendon rol.<\/p>\n
Situata nd\u00ebrlikohet m\u00eb tej nga tensionet rajonale dhe etnike, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb kurd\u00ebt dhe balu\u00e7\u00ebt.<\/p>\n
Ish-negociatori izraelit i paqes Daniel Levy shprehu frik\u00ebn se nd\u00ebrhyrja ushtarake mund t\u00eb mbjell\u00eb kaos n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme p\u00ebr vite me radh\u00eb, me pasoja t\u00eb paparashikueshme, dhe t\u00eb shihet si nj\u00eb \u201cmoment p\u00ebrcaktues n\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjen e Izraelit p\u00ebr dominim rajonal.\u201d\/Politico.eu<\/p>\n
The post Politico: Kaosi n\u00eb Iran \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb fund i favorsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr Netanyahun e Izraelit<\/a> appeared first on Lapsi.al<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Nj\u00eb regjim miq\u00ebsor n\u00eb Teheran do t\u00eb ishte rezultati ideal. Por Netanyahu do t\u00eb ishte i k\u00ebnaqur edhe me nj\u00eb Iran tep\u00ebr t\u00eb dob\u00ebt p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndjekur programin b\u00ebrthamor dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb financuar milicit\u00eb aleate. Prej vitesh, Benjamin Netanyahu ka qen\u00eb forca shtyt\u00ebse pas veprimeve ushtarake dhe sabotazhit kund\u00ebr programit b\u00ebrthamor t\u00eb Iranit dhe qeveris\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-74011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74011","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74011"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74011\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74011"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74011"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74011"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}