{"id":73963,"date":"2026-03-02T13:48:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T13:48:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/2026\/03\/02\/sme-ke-anketuar-asnjehere-ne-dy-dekadat-e-fundit\/"},"modified":"2026-03-02T13:48:31","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T13:48:31","slug":"sme-ke-anketuar-asnjehere-ne-dy-dekadat-e-fundit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/2026\/03\/02\/sme-ke-anketuar-asnjehere-ne-dy-dekadat-e-fundit\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cS\u2019m\u00eb ke anketuar asnj\u00ebher\u00eb n\u00eb dy dekadat e fundit\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Nga Eduard Zaloshnja<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u201cSi s\u2019m\u00eb ke anketuar asnj\u00ebher\u00eb n\u00eb dy dekadat e fundit\u201d, m\u00eb pyeti sot n\u00eb rrug\u00eb nj\u00eb zonj\u00eb mbi t\u00eb 60-at, q\u00eb m\u00eb tha me but\u00ebsi se i kishte ndjekur sondazhet e mia nd\u00ebr vite. T\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn pyetje ma kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb dhjetar t\u00eb panjohur n\u00eb rrug\u00eb n\u00eb dy dekadat e fundit (disa edhe me t\u00ebrs\u00ebll\u00ebm).<\/p>\n<p>M\u00eb posht\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje e gjat\u00eb statistikore p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb pyetje t\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr naive.<\/p>\n<p>George Gallup (1901\u20131984) themeloi m\u00eb 1935 Institutin Amerikan t\u00eb Opinionit Publik, pararend\u00ebsin e kompanis\u00eb s\u00eb sondazheve Gallup. George Gallup u p\u00ebrpoq t\u2019i b\u00ebnte sondazhet e kompanis\u00eb s\u00eb tij sa m\u00eb t\u00eb sakta, duke marr\u00eb kampione demografike p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuese t\u00eb votuesve t\u00eb secilit shtet. Gallup gjithashtu refuzoi t\u00eb kryente sondazhe t\u00eb porositura nga entitete t\u00eb tilla si Partia Republikane apo Demokratike, nj\u00eb pozicion q\u00eb kompania ka vazhduar ta mbaj\u00eb deri m\u00eb sot.<\/p>\n<p>Revolucioni statistikor q\u00eb b\u00ebri George Gallup lidhej me faktin se, duke nd\u00ebrtuar nj\u00eb kampion statistikor p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsues shum\u00eb t\u00eb vog\u00ebl (sa 1\/100000 e popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb at\u00ebhershme amerikane), arriti t\u00eb maste opinionin publik amerikan me marzh gabimi statistikor vet\u00ebm +\/- 3%. M\u00eb par\u00eb, disa revista prestigjioze i kryenin sondazhet p\u00ebrmes letrave q\u00eb ua d\u00ebrgonin lexuesit (sindozot sondazhet online t\u00eb portaleve, ku votojn\u00eb lexuesit e tyre). Por sondazhet e revistave t\u00eb at\u00ebhershme d\u00ebshtuan, megjith\u00ebse kishin secila nga mbi 5 milion\u00eb t\u00eb vet\u00eb-anketuar\u2026<\/p>\n<p>N\u00eb vitin 1936, kompania Gallup parashikoi me sukses se Franklin Roosevelt do ta mposhtte Alfred Landon p\u00ebr presidenc\u00ebn e SHBA, n\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtim t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb me revist\u00ebn prestigjioze The Literary Digest. Dhe ajo ngjarje e popullarizoi kompanin\u00eb, duke e b\u00ebr\u00eb at\u00eb lidere n\u00eb sondazhet amerikane.<\/p>\n<p>N\u00eb dit\u00ebt e sotme, vlera e kompanis\u00eb Gallup mbetet tek sondazhet afatgjata, e jo p\u00ebr t\u00eb matur luhatjet e opinionit nga java n\u00eb jav\u00eb \u2013 nj\u00eb sondazh rigoroz n\u00eb terren sipas metod\u00ebs Gallup zgjat rreth 2-3 jav\u00eb n\u00eb terren, e kur dalin rezultatet e tij, opinioni publik mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb luhatur prej zhvillimeve m\u00eb t\u00eb fundit. Prandaj edhe Gallup ka koh\u00eb q\u00eb p\u00ebrqendrohet n\u00eb sondazhe afatgjata t\u00eb opinionit, q\u00eb eksplorojn\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje fondamentale t\u00eb pandikuara shum\u00eb nga luhatjet e dit\u00ebs.<\/p>\n<p>Teknologjia ka p\u00ebrparuar me hapa gjigande koh\u00ebt e fundit \u2013 n\u00eb sken\u00eb kan\u00eb dal\u00eb instant-polls, q\u00eb realizohen n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb elektronike p\u00ebrmes teknikave t\u00eb ndryshme. (Un\u00eb, psh, kam zhvilluar deri m\u00eb sot plot 127 sondazhe me shp\u00ebrndarje t\u00eb linkut t\u00eb pyet\u00ebsorit p\u00ebrmes SMS-ve krejt t\u00eb rast\u00ebsishme n\u00eb teritorin e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, p\u00ebrtej 70 t\u00eb tjerave q\u00eb i kam drejtuar sipas metod\u00ebs s\u00eb vjet\u00ebr me intervista ball\u00ebp\u00ebrball\u00eb n\u00eb terren apo me telefonata).<\/p>\n<p>Sidoqoft\u00eb, n\u00eb themel t\u00eb \u00e7do sondazhi (pavar\u00ebsisht teknik\u00ebs s\u00eb zhvillimit t\u00eb tij) mbetet Ligji i Numrave t\u00eb M\u00ebdhej t\u00eb Teoris\u00eb s\u00eb Probabilitetit \u2013 sa m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb anketuar, aq m\u00eb af\u00ebr u shkohet p\u00ebrqindjeve reale. Dhe p\u00ebrvoja 90-vje\u00e7are e kompanis\u00eb Gallup ka treguar se me nj\u00eb kampion p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsues prej 1100 t\u00eb anketuarish n\u00eb Amerik\u00ebn qindra-milion\u00ebshe, mund t\u2019i afrohesh rezultatit real m\u00eb sakt\u00ebsi +\/-3%. N\u00eb Shqip\u00ebrin\u00eb vet\u00ebm 2.35 milion\u00ebshe, me nj\u00eb kampion t\u00eb till\u00eb anketimi, sakt\u00ebsia mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe (n\u00eb var\u00ebsi t\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00ebs s\u00eb anketimit dhe t\u00eb kalibrimit statistikor t\u00eb kampionit).<\/p>\n<p>Por jo \u00e7do banor i Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, nga 2.35 milion\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb, mund t\u00eb anketohet. Kur anketohen rast\u00ebsisht 1100 nd\u00ebr 2.35 milion\u00eb, i bie q\u00eb probabiliteti i anketimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb banori \u00e7far\u00ebdo t\u00eb jet\u00eb vet\u00ebm 0.0005. N\u00eb SHBA, probabiliteti i anketimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb banori \u00e7far\u00ebdo n\u00eb nj\u00eb sondazh komb\u00ebtar \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm 0.000003. Sidoqoft\u00eb, fare pak sondazhe n\u00eb 90 vjet\u00ebt e fundit, kan\u00eb dal\u00eb p\u00ebrtej mazhit t\u00eb gabimit +\/-3%\u2026*<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nga Eduard Zaloshnja \u201cSi s\u2019m\u00eb ke anketuar asnj\u00ebher\u00eb n\u00eb dy dekadat e fundit\u201d, m\u00eb pyeti sot n\u00eb rrug\u00eb nj\u00eb zonj\u00eb mbi t\u00eb 60-at, q\u00eb m\u00eb tha me but\u00ebsi se i kishte ndjekur sondazhet e mia nd\u00ebr vite. T\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn pyetje ma kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb dhjetar t\u00eb panjohur n\u00eb rrug\u00eb n\u00eb dy dekadat e fundit (disa edhe [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-73963","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73963","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73963"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73963\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73963"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73963"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73963"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}