Ekonomia globale ka treguar rezistenc\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb gjat\u00eb vitit t\u00eb fundit, pavar\u00ebsisht luft\u00ebs tregtare t\u00eb nisur nga presidenti Donald Trump, sulmeve ndaj institucioneve amerikane si Rezerva Federale dhe tensioneve me aleat\u00ebt. Inflacioni ka vazhduar t\u00eb bjer\u00eb dhe bursat europiane kan\u00eb sh\u00ebnuar nivele rekord.<\/p>\n
Por tani, me konfliktin SHBA-Izrael ndaj Iranit q\u00eb rrezikon t\u00eb zgjerohet, v\u00ebmendja zhvendoset te tregu i energjis\u00eb. Sipas Financial Times, nafta \u00ebsht\u00eb elementi ky\u00e7 q\u00eb do t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktoj\u00eb n\u00ebse kjo ecuri do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb relativisht e q\u00ebndrueshme apo do t\u00eb nd\u00ebrpritet.<\/p>\n
Pyetja kryesore \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse SHBA dhe partner\u00ebt e saj mund t\u00eb shmangin nj\u00eb mbyllje t\u00eb zgjatur t\u00eb d\u00ebrgesave t\u00eb energjis\u00eb p\u00ebrmes ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit, q\u00eb shtrihet p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb brigjeve jugore t\u00eb Iranit. N\u00ebse trafiku vazhdon dhe rritja e prodhimit nga vendet e Opec+ (Organizata e Vendeve Eksportuese t\u00eb Naft\u00ebs) arrin t\u00eb frenoj\u00eb \u00e7mimet, ndikimi n\u00eb rritjen globale mund t\u00eb mbetet i kufizuar.<\/p>\n
Por n\u00ebse jo, nj\u00eb rritje e fort\u00eb e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb energjis\u00eb rrezikon t\u00eb rikthej\u00eb presionet inflacioniste n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e m\u00ebdha, t\u00eb prish\u00eb planet e bankave qendrore p\u00ebr ulje normash interesi dhe t\u00eb trondit\u00eb besimin e bizneseve.<\/p>\n
Dy skenar\u00eb p\u00ebr tregun e energjis\u00eb<\/strong><\/p>\n Sipas Edward Fishman nga Council on Foreign Relations, ekzistojn\u00eb dy skenar\u00eb kryesor\u00eb. I pari \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrprerje e plot\u00eb dhe e zgjatur e trafikut n\u00eb ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit, q\u00eb ai e cil\u00ebson si pika detare m\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme p\u00ebr naft\u00ebn n\u00eb bot\u00eb. Me rreth 20% t\u00eb naft\u00ebs globale q\u00eb kalon aty, nj\u00eb mbyllje do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb goditje e madhe p\u00ebr \u00e7mimet.<\/p>\n Analist\u00ebt parashikojn\u00eb se n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast nafta mund t\u00eb kaloj\u00eb 100 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i. Nafta bruto aktualisht \u00ebsht\u00eb pran\u00eb 73 dollar\u00ebve, niveli m\u00eb i lart\u00eb n\u00eb shtat\u00eb muaj, pas nj\u00eb rritjeje prej afro 12% gjat\u00eb muajit t\u00eb fundit.<\/p>\n Skenari i dyt\u00eb, m\u00eb i mundsh\u00ebm sipas Fishman, \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb mos ket\u00eb mbyllje totale, por t\u00eb ndalen vet\u00ebm eksportet iraniane. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast, \u00e7mimi i naft\u00ebs mund t\u00eb ngjitet n\u00eb t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 80 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i.<\/p>\n T\u00eb diel\u00ebn, Opec+ njoftoi se do t\u00eb rris\u00eb prodhimin me 206 mij\u00eb fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb n\u00eb prill, n\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr t\u00eb qet\u00ebsuar tregjet. Megjithat\u00eb, kjo rritje \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt se sa prisnin disa analist\u00eb.<\/p>\n Ndikimi n\u00eb SHBA<\/strong><\/p>\n Edhe pse SHBA sot prodhon pothuajse gjith\u00eb energjin\u00eb q\u00eb i duhet dhe importon vet\u00ebm 17%,\u00a0niveli m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt n\u00eb 40 vite , nj\u00eb rritje e fort\u00eb e \u00e7mimit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb tregjet bot\u00ebrore do t\u00eb ndihej direkt n\u00eb xhepat e amerikan\u00ebve.<\/p>\n Sipas ING, nj\u00eb naft\u00eb me 100 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i mund ta \u00e7oj\u00eb inflacionin nga 2.4% n\u00eb mbi 4%. Kjo do ta b\u00ebj\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr Rezerv\u00ebn Federale t\u00eb ul\u00eb normat e interesit k\u00ebt\u00eb vit.<\/p>\n Instituti Barclays paralajm\u00ebron se \u00e7do rritje e q\u00ebndrueshme me 10 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i mund t\u00eb ul\u00eb rritjen ekonomike me 0.1 deri n\u00eb 0.2 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje gjat\u00eb 12 muajve. N\u00ebse nafta arrin 120 dollar\u00eb dhe q\u00ebndron aty, goditja p\u00ebr SHBA dhe ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore do t\u00eb ishte e konsiderueshme.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb efekt tjet\u00ebr i mundsh\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb forcimi i dollarit. Historikisht, rritjet e \u00e7mimit t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe tensionet n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme kan\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur monedh\u00ebn amerikane.<\/p>\n Europa dhe Azia n\u00eb rrezik m\u00eb t\u00eb madh<\/strong><\/p>\n Azia \u00ebsht\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht e ekspozuar. Rreth 84% e naft\u00ebs dhe 83% e gazit t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm q\u00eb kaluan p\u00ebrmes Hormuzit n\u00eb 2024 shkuan drejt tregjeve aziatike, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Kin\u00ebn, Indin\u00eb, Japonin\u00eb dhe Koren\u00eb e Jugut.<\/p>\n Sipas Capital Economics, nj\u00eb rritje e naft\u00ebs s\u00eb pap\u00ebrpunuar\u00a0n\u00eb 100 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i mund t\u00eb shtoj\u00eb 0.6 deri n\u00eb 0.7 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje n\u00eb inflacionin global. Europa do t\u00eb ndiente goditjen jo vet\u00ebm nga nafta, por edhe nga rritja e kostove t\u00eb gazit t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n P\u00ebr Bank\u00ebn Qendrore Europiane, ndikimi i menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb i kufizuar, pasi inflacioni n\u00eb Eurozon\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb rreth 1.7%, posht\u00eb objektivit. Por p\u00ebr Bank\u00ebn e Anglis\u00eb, ku vendimet p\u00ebr normat jan\u00eb t\u00eb ndara, nj\u00eb rritje e fort\u00eb e naft\u00ebs do ta b\u00ebnte situat\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlikuar.<\/p>\n Rreziqe t\u00eb tjera<\/strong><\/p>\n Konflikti vjen n\u00eb nj\u00eb moment delikat p\u00ebr tregjet financiare globale. Aksionet bankare n\u00eb SHBA kan\u00eb p\u00ebsuar r\u00ebnie t\u00eb fort\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa Nasdaq ka humbur m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 3% gjat\u00eb muajit.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb konflikt i zgjatur n\u00eb Gjirin Persik q\u00eb destabilizon tregjet e energjis\u00eb do t\u00eb godiste m\u00eb tej besimin e investitor\u00ebve, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00ebse krijon perceptimin se Rezerva Federale ka m\u00eb pak hap\u00ebsir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb leht\u00ebsuar politik\u00ebn monetare.<\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, disa ekonomist\u00eb theksojn\u00eb se, pavar\u00ebsisht nj\u00eb serie ngjarjesh gjeopolitike, rritja globale dhe tregtia kan\u00eb mbetur \u00e7udit\u00ebrisht t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme gjat\u00eb vitit t\u00eb fundit.<\/p>\n N\u00eb fund, sipas analiz\u00ebs, gjith\u00e7ka varet nga sa do t\u00eb zgjas\u00eb konflikti dhe n\u00ebse rrjedha e energjis\u00eb p\u00ebrmes Hormuzit do t\u00eb mbetet e hapur. Nga kjo do t\u00eb varet jo vet\u00ebm \u00e7mimi i naft\u00ebs, por edhe drejtimi i ekonomis\u00eb globale n\u00eb muajt q\u00eb vijn\u00eb. \/Financial Times<\/p>\n The post Financial Times: Lufta me Iranin mund t\u00eb trondis\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb globale nga nafta<\/a> appeared first on Lapsi.al<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ekonomia globale ka treguar rezistenc\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb gjat\u00eb vitit t\u00eb fundit, pavar\u00ebsisht luft\u00ebs tregtare t\u00eb nisur nga presidenti Donald Trump, sulmeve ndaj institucioneve amerikane si Rezerva Federale dhe tensioneve me aleat\u00ebt. Inflacioni ka vazhduar t\u00eb bjer\u00eb dhe bursat europiane kan\u00eb sh\u00ebnuar nivele rekord. Por tani, me konfliktin SHBA-Izrael ndaj Iranit q\u00eb rrezikon t\u00eb zgjerohet, v\u00ebmendja […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-73814","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73814","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73814"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73814\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73814"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73814"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73814"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}