Nga Medlir Mema<\/p>\n
Zgjedhjet e fundit n\u00eb Gjermani premtojn\u00ebt\u00eb hapin nj\u00eb epok\u00eb t\u00eb re p\u00ebr arkitektur\u00ebn politike dhe t\u00eb siguris\u00eb n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb. Fitorja e Friedrich Merz me Unionin Kristian Demokrat (CDU) sinjalizon mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e ndryshimeve t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb jehon\u00eb n\u00eb gjith\u00eb kontinentin.<\/p>\n
Triumfi i Merz tregon p\u00ebr nj\u00eb rigjall\u00ebrim t\u00eb politik\u00ebs s\u00eb qendr\u00ebs s\u00eb djatht\u00eb n\u00eb Gjermani. Megjithat\u00eb, zgjedhjet po ashtu soll\u00ebn nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb ndjeshme t\u00eb s\u00eb djatht\u00ebs ekstreme, me Alternativ\u00ebn p\u00ebr Gjermanin\u00eb (AfD) q\u00eb dyfishoi p\u00ebrqindjen e saj t\u00eb votave n\u00eb 20.8%, duke u b\u00ebr\u00eb partia e dyt\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe n\u00eb Bundestag. Ky zhvillim reflekton pak\u00ebnaq\u00ebsin\u00eb n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb publikut p\u00ebr \u00e7\u00ebshtje si emigracioni, paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebria ekonomike dhe d\u00ebshtimet e perceptuara t\u00eb elit\u00ebs politike.<\/p>\n
Formimi i nj\u00eb qeverie t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj\u00eb negociata t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlikuara p\u00ebr koalicion. Alternativa m\u00eb e dukshme\u2014partneriteti potencial CDU\/CSU me Socialdemokrat\u00ebt (SPD), t\u00eb cil\u00ebt p\u00ebsuan rezultatin e tyre m\u00eb t\u00eb keq historik me 16.4% t\u00eb vot\u00ebs\u2014mund t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj\u00eb kompromisa t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira politike, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb lidhje me reform\u00ebn ekonomike dhe shpenzimet ushtarake. Balancimi i agjend\u00ebs s\u00eb CDU p\u00ebr uljen e taksave dhe deregullimin n\u00eb kontrast me prirjen e SPD-s\u00eb p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb investime publike do t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb sfid\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb q\u00ebdo t\u00eb v\u00eb n\u00eb prov\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e institucioneve politike gjermane dhe t\u00eb vet\u00eb koalicionit qeveris\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb hera e par\u00eb q\u00eb Gjermania premton nj\u00eb politik\u00eb evropiane m\u00eb t\u00eb pavarur. Nj\u00eb retorik\u00eb e ngjashme u d\u00ebgjua edhe n\u00eb 2021, kur qeveria e at\u00ebhershme n\u00eb ardhje synonte t\u00eb nxiste p\u00ebrpjekjet p\u00ebr nj\u00eb investim m\u00eb t\u00eb madh n\u00ebsektorin e mbrojtjes. Politika e shum\u00ebp\u00ebrfolur \u201cZeitenwende\u201d e kancelarit Scholz, e konceptuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb sh\u00ebnuar nj\u00eb pik\u00eb kthese n\u00eb strategjin\u00eb e siguris\u00eb gjermane dhe evropiane n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje t\u00eb ndryshimeve t\u00eb m\u00ebdha globale, n\u00eb fund nuk arriti t\u00eb sjell\u00eb aspak ndryshime t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme.<\/p>\n
Kat\u00ebr vite m\u00eb von\u00eb, vendi dhe rajoni mbetet ende shum\u00eb i varur nga garancit\u00eb e siguris\u00eb amerikane, nd\u00ebrsa integrimi ushtarak evropian vazhdon t\u00eb p\u00ebrballet me sfida politike dhe logjistike.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse Gjermania \u00ebsht\u00eb serioze p\u00ebr ndjekjen e autonomis\u00eb strategjike, do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb marr\u00eb vendime t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira mbi investimet ushtarake, politikat industriale dhe t\u00eb ardhmen e aleancave. Por problemi q\u00ebndron n\u00eb faktin se t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtat sfida ekonomike dhe politike q\u00eb e penguan qeverin\u00eb e m\u00ebparshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb zbatuar agjend\u00ebn e saj ambicioze, vazhdojn\u00eb ta r\u00ebndojn\u00eb Gjermanin\u00eb edhe sot.<\/p>\n
Parashikimi ekonomik i Gjermanis\u00eb paraqet nj\u00eb penges\u00eb t\u00eb madhe p\u00ebr ambiciet e saj. Sipas raporteve m\u00eb t\u00eb fundit, aktiviteti ekonomik pritet t\u00eb rritet vet\u00ebm me 0.3% n\u00eb 2025, pasi kishte p\u00ebsuar tkurrje n\u00eb dy vitet e fundit. Situata b\u00ebhet edhe m\u00ebproblematike kur konsiderojm\u00eb q\u00eb pasiguri t\u00eb larta r\u00ebndojn\u00eb mbi konsumin dhe investimet. K\u00ebrkesa globale p\u00ebr mallra industriale\u2014nj\u00eb nga eksportet kryesore t\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb\u2014vazhdon t\u00eb dob\u00ebsohet, duke p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsuar perspektiv\u00ebn tregtare t\u00eb vendit.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtarisht, qeveria e Merz do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb manovroje me delikates\u00eb nj\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlikuar franko-gjermane. Vendimi i presidentit francez Emmanuel Macron p\u00ebr t\u00eb thirrur zgjedhje t\u00eb parakohshme ver\u00ebn e kaluar e dob\u00ebsoi at\u00eb politikisht. Kjo do ta detyroj\u00eb at\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj\u00eb legjitimitet duke projektuar forc\u00eb n\u00eb aren\u00ebn nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare dhe duke marr\u00eb nj\u00eb rol udh\u00ebheq\u00ebs n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb k\u00ebtu n\u00eb lidhje me konfliktin Rusi-Ukrain\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, aktor\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb evropian\u00eb po forcojn\u00eb ndikimin e tyre. Giorgia Meloni n\u00eb Itali dhe Donald Tusk n\u00eb Poloni po pozicionohen si lojtar\u00eb ky\u00e7 n\u00eb gjeopolitik\u00ebn evropiane. P\u00ebr ta, motori i famsh\u00ebm franko-gjerman mund t\u00eb mos jet\u00eb m\u00eb aq i domosdosh\u00ebm\u2014apo aq efektiv\u2014sa dikur. Ende mbetet e paqart\u00eb n\u00ebse Polonia, Hungaria, Republika \u00c7eke dhe shtetet e tjera t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs Qendrore dhe Lindore jan\u00eb t\u00eb prirura t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtesin nj\u00eb korniz\u00eb sigurie evropiane t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequr nga Gjermania, pa p\u00ebrfshirjen e SHBA-s\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Shum\u00eb prej k\u00ebtyre shteteve do t\u00eb preferonin nj\u00eb prani t\u00eb fort\u00eb amerikane n\u00ebn ombrell\u00ebn e NATO-s dhe mund t\u2019i rezistojn\u00eb nismave q\u00eb reduktojn\u00eb rolin e Uashingtonit. Arsyeja e ekzistenc\u00ebs s\u00eb NATO-s\u2014t\u00eb mbaj\u00eb Rusin\u00eb jasht\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs, SHBA-n\u00eb brenda saj dhe Gjermanin\u00eb n\u00ebn kontroll\u2014sugjeron se nj\u00eb struktur\u00eb sigurie evropiane e udh\u00ebhequr nga Berlini mund t\u00eb mos mir\u00ebpritet gjer\u00ebsisht brenda aleanc\u00ebs. Si rrjedhim, \u00e7do p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr t\u00eb krijuar nj\u00eb forc\u00eb t\u00eb pavarur ushtarake evropiane ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrballet me skepticiz\u00ebm nga k\u00ebto an\u00ebtar\u00eb t\u00eb rinj t\u00eb NATO-s.<\/p>\n
Kina mbetet nj\u00eb faktor i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm i jasht\u00ebm n\u00eb sigurin\u00eb evropiane. Pekini ka interes t\u00eb balancoj\u00eb ndikimin amerikan, duke siguruar q\u00eb \u00e7do afrim mes Uashingtonit dhe Mosk\u00ebs t\u00eb mos vij\u00eb n\u00eb d\u00ebm t\u00eb tij. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, Kina mund t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj\u00eb t\u00eb shfryt\u00ebzoj\u00eb ndarjet brenda Evrop\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb thelluar lidhjet ekonomike me shtete t\u00eb ve\u00e7anta t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb, duke dob\u00ebsuar k\u00ebshtu q\u00ebndrimet e p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebta mbi sigurin\u00eb evropiane.<\/p>\n
Lidhjet ekonomike t\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb me Kin\u00ebn gjithashtu e komplikojn\u00eb situat\u00ebn. Nd\u00ebrsa Berlini ka shprehur shqet\u00ebsime mbi ambiciet gjeopolitike t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs, ai mbetet i nd\u00ebrlidhur ekonomikisht me Pekinin, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb sektor\u00ebt e prodhimit t\u00ebmakinerive industriale dhe t\u00eb teknologjis\u00eb. Si\u00e7 kemi par\u00eb gjat\u00eb viteve t\u00eb fundit me p\u00ebrpjekjet e Gjermanis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u shk\u00ebputur nga var\u00ebsia e saj e thell\u00eb ndaj burimeve energjitike ruse, marr\u00ebdh\u00ebniet me Kin\u00ebn, krahas p\u00ebrpjekjeve p\u00ebr t\u00eb krijuar hap\u00ebsir\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb autonomi m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe evropiane, do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb nj\u00eb loj\u00eb shum\u00eb delikate.<\/p>\n
\u00c7far\u00eb n\u00ebnkupton se me p\u00ebrfshirjen n\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb n\u00eb sigurin\u00eb evropiane dhe me rritjen e p\u00ebr\u00e7arjeve brenda BE-s\u00eb, vendet e Evrop\u00ebs Juglindore mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrballen me paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebri edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe. Nj\u00eb korniz\u00eb e fragmentuar e siguris\u00eb evropiane mund t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb hap\u00ebsir\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00ebfuqi rajonale si Serbia q\u00eb synon t\u00eb rris\u00eb ndikimin e saj, duke destabilizuar rajonin.P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, mungesa e nj\u00eb qasjeje t\u00eb bashk\u00ebrenduar nga ana e Bashkimit Evropian mund t\u00eb lejoj\u00eb aktor\u00eb t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm, si Rusia dhe Kina, t\u00eb thellojn\u00eb pranin\u00eb e tyre n\u00eb rajon, duke ndikuar n\u00eb ekuilibrin gjeopolitik.<\/p>\n
Rezultatet e zgjedhjeve n\u00eb Gjermani paralajm\u00ebrojn\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb transformimi dhe pasigurie n\u00eb rritje. Ardhja n\u00eb fuqi e CDU\/CSU n\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00ebndryshimesh tektoniken\u00eb rrafshin e marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare do t\u00eb form\u00ebsoj\u00eb jo vet\u00ebm t\u00eb ardhmen e Gjermanis\u00eb, por edhe drejtimin e siguris\u00eb dhe t\u00ebunitetit evropian. Nd\u00ebrkohe, Evropa po p\u00ebrjeton destabilitet t\u00eb brendsh\u00ebm, pasiguri ekonomike dhe pasojat gjeopolitike q\u00eb rrjedhin nga nj\u00eb partneriteti transatlantik m\u00eb pak t\u00eb q\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm.N\u00ebse Gjermania do t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00ebgj\u00ebndje t\u2019i rekthej\u00eb stabilitetin dhe r\u00ebnd\u00ebsin\u00ebkontinentit apo jo, q\u00ebndron p\u00ebr tu v\u00ebrtetuar n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen jo shum\u00eb t\u00eb larg\u00ebt.<\/p>\n
*Medlir Mema \u00ebsht\u00eb Drejtor i Programit p\u00ebr Inteligjenc\u00ebn Artificiale dhe Qeverisjes Globale n\u00eb Institutin e Qeverisjes Globale, Bruksel. Ai gjithashtu \u00ebsht\u00eb Profesor i Marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare n\u00eb Brigham Young University n\u00eb Idaho, SHBA.<\/em><\/p>\n The post Gjermania dhe e ardhmja e siguris\u00eb evropiane<\/a> appeared first on Lapsi.al<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Nga Medlir Mema Zgjedhjet e fundit n\u00eb Gjermani premtojn\u00ebt\u00eb hapin nj\u00eb epok\u00eb t\u00eb re p\u00ebr arkitektur\u00ebn politike dhe t\u00eb siguris\u00eb n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb. Fitorja e Friedrich Merz me Unionin Kristian Demokrat (CDU) sinjalizon mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e ndryshimeve t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb jehon\u00eb n\u00eb gjith\u00eb kontinentin. Triumfi i Merz tregon p\u00ebr nj\u00eb rigjall\u00ebrim t\u00eb politik\u00ebs s\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7092","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7092"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7092\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7092"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7092"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7092"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}