N\u00eb shtator 1992, nj\u00eb njeri i vet\u00ebm arriti at\u00eb q\u00eb dukej e pamundur: e detyroi Bank\u00ebn e Anglis\u00eb t\u00eb dor\u00ebzohej. George Soros nuk sulmoi me tanke, por me nj\u00eb ide: se paundi britanik ishte i mbivler\u00ebsuar dhe se qeveria po mbronte nj\u00eb iluzion. Ai priti momentin kur tregu do ta kuptonte k\u00ebt\u00eb, lexoi sinjalin vendimtar nga Gjermania dhe vendosi t\u00eb godas\u00eb pa m\u00ebshir\u00eb: huazoi miliarda, shiti paund n\u00eb shkall\u00eb masive dhe e ktheu nj\u00eb dob\u00ebsi strukturore t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb britanike n\u00eb bastin m\u00eb t\u00eb famsh\u00ebm financiar t\u00eb shekullit. Brenda pak or\u00ebsh, qeveria rriti normat n\u00eb panik, dogji rezervat dhe m\u00eb n\u00eb fund u dor\u00ebzua. Soros fitoi mbi nj\u00eb miliard dollar\u00eb dhe hyri n\u00eb histori si njeriu q\u00eb \u201ctheu\u201d Bank\u00ebn e Anglis\u00eb. Lapsi.al sjell analiz\u00ebn e Rohin Dhar q\u00eb shpjegon hap pas hapi bastin q\u00eb e ktheu Sorosin n\u00eb ikon\u00ebn bot\u00ebrore t\u00eb financ\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vitin 1992, George Soros e uli n\u00eb gjunj\u00eb Bank\u00ebn e Anglis\u00eb. Gjat\u00eb k\u00ebtij procesi, ai fitoi mbi nj\u00eb miliard dollar\u00eb. T\u00eb fitosh nj\u00eb miliard dollar\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb, sipas \u00e7do vler\u00ebsimi, di\u00e7ka mjaft e jasht\u00ebzakonshme. Por t\u00eb rr\u00ebzosh sistemin monetar t\u00eb Britanis\u00eb s\u00eb Madhe brenda nj\u00eb dite t\u00eb vetme me nj\u00eb bast t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar me eleganc\u00eb kund\u00ebr monedh\u00ebs s\u00eb saj? Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb histori legjendash.<\/p>\n
Megjith\u00ebse ndodhi vet\u00ebm tre dekada m\u00eb par\u00eb, Soros e luajti bastin e tij, q\u00eb tronditi nj\u00eb komb, n\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshme nga kjo e sotmja. N\u00eb at\u00eb periudh\u00eb, fondet \u201chedge\u201d nuk kishin hyr\u00eb ende n\u00eb nd\u00ebrgjegjen publike, kufizimet p\u00ebr rrjedh\u00ebn e kapitalit nga nj\u00eb vend n\u00eb tjetrin sapo ishin hequr, dhe epoka e ciklit 24-or\u00ebsh t\u00eb lajmeve sapo kishte filluar.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr t\u00eb kuptuar se si Soros b\u00ebri nj\u00eb pasuri duke v\u00ebn\u00eb bast kund\u00ebr paundit britanik, k\u00ebrkohet nj\u00ebfar\u00eb njohurie p\u00ebr m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn se si funksionojn\u00eb kurset e k\u00ebmbimit mes vendeve, mjetet makroekonomike q\u00eb qeverit\u00eb p\u00ebrdorin p\u00ebr t\u00eb stimuluar ekonomit\u00eb, dhe si fitojn\u00eb para fondet \u201chedge\u201d.<\/p>\n
Dhe k\u00ebshtu vazhdojm\u00eb me historin\u00eb se si George Soros udh\u00ebhoqi nj\u00eb grup tregtar\u00ebsh p\u00ebr t\u00eb thyer t\u00eb gjith\u00eb sistemin e valutave t\u00eb huaja t\u00eb Britanis\u00eb s\u00eb Madhe, dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrfituar ndjesh\u00ebm n\u00eb kurriz t\u00eb taksapaguesve britanik\u00eb dhe t\u00eb tjer\u00ebve q\u00eb ishin n\u00eb an\u00ebn e gabuar t\u00eb bastit financiar m\u00eb t\u00eb madh t\u00eb shekullit t\u00eb 20-t\u00eb.<\/p>\n
T\u00eb kuptojm\u00eb fillimisht historin\u00eb n\u00eb Europ\u00eb\u00a0<\/p>\n\n
Le t\u00eb fillojm\u00eb duke paraqitur sfondin historik p\u00ebr manovr\u00ebn e Soros. Pas Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, vendet europiane donin t\u00eb integronin m\u00eb ngusht\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e tyre me nj\u00ebra-tjetr\u00ebn. Shpresa ishte q\u00eb vendosja e marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnieve m\u00eb t\u00eb forta, do t\u00eb parandalonin shp\u00ebrthimin e luft\u00ebrave katastrofike \u00e7do disa dekada dhe do t\u00eb krijonin nj\u00eb treg pan-europian q\u00eb mund t\u00eb konkurronte me Shtetet e Bashkuara. Kjo \u00e7oi n\u00eb krijimin e Bashkimit Europian (BE), i cili nuk mori form\u00ebn e tij aktuale me nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb t\u00eb vetme deri n\u00eb vitin 1999.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb pararend\u00ebs i BE-s\u00eb ishte Mekanizmi Europian i Kursit t\u00eb K\u00ebmbimit (ERM)<\/strong>, i krijuar n\u00eb vitin 1979. Vendet nuk ishin gati t\u00eb hiqnin dor\u00eb nga monedhat e tyre komb\u00ebtare, por ran\u00eb dakord t\u00eb fiksonin kurset e k\u00ebmbimit mes tyre n\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb \u201cl\u00ebviznin lirsh\u00ebm\u201d monedh\u00ebn dhe t\u2019ia linin tregjeve financiare p\u00ebrcaktimin e kursit. Meqen\u00ebse Gjermania kishte ekonomin\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb n\u00eb Europ\u00eb, \u00e7do vend e p\u00ebrcaktoi vler\u00ebn e monedh\u00ebs s\u00eb vet n\u00eb marka gjermane (Deutschmark). Ata ran\u00eb dakord ta mbanin kursin e k\u00ebmbimit mes monedh\u00ebs s\u00eb tyre dhe mark\u00ebs brenda nj\u00eb intervali t\u00eb pranuesh\u00ebm prej plus ose minus 6% ndaj kursit t\u00eb r\u00ebn\u00eb dakord.<\/p>\n Me kurse k\u00ebmbimi fikse, vendet nuk mund thjesht \u201cta vendosin dhe kaq\u201d. Njer\u00ebzit tregtojn\u00eb valuta \u00e7do dit\u00eb, duke shk\u00ebmbyer monedh\u00ebn e tyre p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb importe ose p\u00ebr t\u00eb shitur eksporte, dhe tregu ushtron presion bazuar n\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb mendon se duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb kursi real, sipas ofert\u00ebs dhe k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs p\u00ebr nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb. P\u00ebr ta mbajtur kursin t\u00eb fiksuar, qeverit\u00eb duhet t\u00eb marrin pjes\u00eb n\u00eb treg dhe ta shtyjn\u00eb at\u00eb n\u00eb drejtimin e r\u00ebn\u00eb dakord.<\/p>\n Qeverit\u00eb mund ta menaxhojn\u00eb monedh\u00ebn e tyre n\u00eb dy m\u00ebnyra kryesore. S\u00eb pari, ato mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorin rezervat e tyre t\u00eb valut\u00ebs s\u00eb huaj p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb monedh\u00ebn e tyre n\u00eb tregun e hapur. Kjo b\u00ebn q\u00eb monedha t\u00eb forcohet. T\u00eb b\u00ebsh t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt\u00ebn e zhvler\u00ebson monedh\u00ebn.<\/p>\n S\u00eb dyti, qeverit\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndikojn\u00eb n\u00eb kurset e k\u00ebmbimit p\u00ebrmes p\u00ebrcaktimit t\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit. D\u00ebshiron q\u00eb monedha jote t\u00eb forcohet? Rrit normat e interesit p\u00ebr t\u00eb nxitur njer\u00ebzit t\u00eb blejn\u00eb monedh\u00ebn t\u00ebnde dhe ta japin at\u00eb hua me interesa m\u00eb t\u00eb larta. D\u00ebshiron q\u00eb monedha t\u00eb dob\u00ebsohet? Uli normat e interesit q\u00eb kapitali t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj\u00eb fitime m\u00eb t\u00eb mira diku tjet\u00ebr.<\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, manipulimi i normave t\u00eb interesit \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje e madhe, sepse ato ndikojn\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb. S\u00eb bashku me shpenzimet qeveritare, normat e interesit jan\u00eb leva kryesore q\u00eb qeverit\u00eb p\u00ebrdorin p\u00ebr t\u00eb rregulluar ekonomin\u00eb. N\u00ebse vendi \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb recesion, qeveria mund t\u2019i ul\u00eb normat p\u00ebr t\u00eb nxitur investimet dhe shpenzimet. N\u00ebse inflacioni \u00ebsht\u00eb i lart\u00eb, qeveria mund t\u2019i rris\u00eb normat p\u00ebr t\u00eb tkurrur ofert\u00ebn e paras\u00eb.<\/p>\n Pra, e gjith\u00eb kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se ka pasoja n\u00eb ruajtjen e nj\u00eb kursi k\u00ebmbimi t\u00eb fiksuar. \u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb mekaniz\u00ebm i jasht\u00ebm detyrues q\u00eb ua lidh duart qeverive n\u00eb politik\u00ebn monetare, gj\u00eb q\u00eb mund t\u00eb kufizoj\u00eb ose madje t\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtoj\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb duhet t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb p\u00ebr ta mbajtur ekonomin\u00eb e brendshme t\u00eb sh\u00ebndetshme.<\/p>\n Britania hyn n\u00eb ERM\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n N\u00eb vitin 1990, Britania ishte nj\u00eb vend q\u00eb ndoshta kishte nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb mekaniz\u00ebm t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm detyrues q\u00eb t\u2019i lidhte duart n\u00eb politik\u00ebn monetare. Inflacioni ishte i lart\u00eb, produktiviteti i ul\u00ebt, eksportet jokonkurruese dhe askush nuk besonte v\u00ebrtet se qeveria ishte e aft\u00eb t\u00eb rregullonte problemet.<\/p>\n Kryeministrja e asaj kohe, Margaret Thatcher, kishte qen\u00eb prej koh\u00ebsh kund\u00ebr hyrjes n\u00eb ERM, duke k\u00ebmb\u00ebngulur q\u00eb \u00e7mimi i paundit t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktohej nga tregjet. (p\u00ebrkthen lapsi.al) Megjithat\u00eb, deri n\u00eb vitin 1990, Thatcher nuk kishte m\u00eb fuqin\u00eb politike p\u00ebr t\u2019iu kund\u00ebrv\u00ebn\u00eb an\u00ebtar\u00ebve t\u00eb tjer\u00eb t\u00eb Partis\u00eb Konservatore q\u00eb donin t\u00eb fiksonin kurset e k\u00ebmbimit me pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs.<\/p>\n Vendimi p\u00ebr t\u2019u bashkuar me ERM u mb\u00ebshtet fuqish\u00ebm nga John Major, i cili ishte Kancelar i Thesarit n\u00eb kabinetin e Thatcher. N\u00eb tetor 1990, Britania m\u00eb n\u00eb fund hyri n\u00eb ERM me nj\u00eb kurs k\u00ebmbimi prej 2.95 marka gjermane (DM) p\u00ebr \u00e7do paund britanik (GBP). Qeveria britanike ishte e detyruar ta mbante kursin mes 2.78 markash dhe 3.13 markash.<\/p>\n Pak koh\u00eb m\u00eb pas, John Major z\u00ebvend\u00ebsoi Thatcher si Kryeminist\u00ebr. Sistemi i kursit t\u00eb fiksuar do t\u00eb ishte themeli i planit t\u00eb tij ekonomik. Major mendonte se ERM do t\u00eb sh\u00ebrbente si nj\u00eb lloj \u201cautopiloti\u201d q\u00eb do ta mbante politik\u00ebn monetare britanike n\u00eb drejtimin e duhur. Qeveria nuk mund t\u00eb luante me ofert\u00ebn e paras\u00eb sipas d\u00ebshir\u00ebs, sepse duart i kishte t\u00eb lidhura nga marr\u00ebveshja e kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit.<\/p>\n Dhe n\u00eb nj\u00eb far\u00eb mase, politika funksionoi. Mes viteve 1990 dhe 1992, inflacioni ra, normat e interesit u leht\u00ebsuan dhe papun\u00ebsia ishte e ul\u00ebt sipas standardeve historike. Por n\u00eb vitin 1992, Anglia ndjeu ndikimin e nj\u00eb recesioni t\u00eb madh global dhe papun\u00ebsia u rrit n\u00eb 12.7% nga vet\u00ebm 7.7% dy vjet m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n Dhe k\u00ebshtu arrijm\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 1992. Zakonisht, Britania mund t\u00eb nxiste investimet dhe shpenzimet duke ulur normat e interesit gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb krize pun\u00ebsimi. Por n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast, nj\u00eb veprim i till\u00eb do ta shtynte vler\u00ebn e paundit n\u00ebn nivelin e r\u00ebn\u00eb dakord. K\u00ebshtu, nd\u00ebrsa populli i Britanis\u00eb s\u00eb Madhe p\u00ebrballej me recesionin, duart e qeveris\u00eb ishin t\u00eb lidhura; thjesht duhej ta p\u00ebrballonin situat\u00ebn.<\/p>\n N\u00eb vitin 1992, George Soros ishte 62 vje\u00e7 dhe drejtonte \u201cQuantum Fund\u201d, nj\u00eb fond investimi q\u00eb ai e kishte themeluar n\u00eb vitin 1970 dhe q\u00eb vinte baste mbi prirjet makroekonomike. Soros ishte tashm\u00eb shum\u00eb i pasur, por ende jo i pasur n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb ikonike, apo figura publike q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb sot.<\/p>\n N\u00ebse fondet \u201chedge\u201d kan\u00eb nj\u00eb aureol\u00eb misteri edhe sot, kjo ishte edhe m\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 1992, termi madje vet\u00ebm at\u00ebher\u00eb filloi t\u00eb hynte n\u00eb p\u00ebrdorim t\u00eb gjer\u00eb.<\/p>\n P\u00ebrmendja e fjal\u00ebve \u201cHedge Fund\u201d sipas viteve:<\/p>\n\n \u00c7far\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb sakt\u00ebsisht nj\u00eb hedge fund? Fjala \u201chedge\u201d jep nj\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb p\u00ebr q\u00ebllimin e tyre fillestar: investimi i kapitalit p\u00ebr t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb nj\u00eb bast specifik q\u00eb di\u00e7ka do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb.<\/strong> Hedge fund-et p\u00ebrdorin gjithashtu instrumente financiare p\u00ebr t\u00eb \u201cmbrojtur\u201d (hedge) veten nga rreziqe t\u00eb tjera, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb izolojn\u00eb m\u00eb qart\u00eb bastin q\u00eb duan t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb.<\/p>\n Ja nj\u00eb shembull. Supozojm\u00eb se je nj\u00eb hedge fund q\u00eb mendon se rrjeti celular i AT&T \u00ebsht\u00eb i dob\u00ebt dhe d\u00ebshiron t\u00eb v\u00ebsh bast kund\u00ebr tij. Mund t\u00eb v\u00ebsh bast q\u00eb aksioni \u201cshkurtohet\u201d (t\u00eb fitosh para kur \u00e7mimi i aksionit bie), por i gjith\u00eb tregu i telefonis\u00eb celulare po ec\u00ebn shum\u00eb mir\u00eb, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb AT&T mund t\u00eb fitoj\u00eb klient\u00eb t\u00eb rinj edhe pse sh\u00ebrbimi i saj \u00ebsht\u00eb i dob\u00ebt. N\u00ebse kjo ndodh, \u00e7mimi i aksionit t\u00eb AT&T mund t\u00eb rritet dhe ti do t\u00eb humbje shum\u00eb para. P\u00ebr t\u2019u \u201cmbrojtur\u201d nga ky rrezik, blen edhe aksione t\u00eb kompanis\u00eb konkurente Verizon, sepse ti mendon se AT&T \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e dob\u00ebt n\u00eb krahasim me Verizon.<\/p>\n Tani, n\u00ebse aksionet e kompanive t\u00eb telefonis\u00eb celulare rriten n\u00eb vler\u00eb, ti prap\u00eb fiton para n\u00ebse aksioni i Verizon rritet m\u00eb shum\u00eb se ai i AT&T. N\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt, n\u00ebse aksionet e k\u00ebtij sektori bien, ti prap\u00eb fiton n\u00ebse aksioni i AT&T bie m\u00eb shpejt se ai i Verizon. Duke krijuar nj\u00eb pozicion t\u00eb till\u00eb, ti ke \u201cmbrojtur\u201d nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb rrezikut t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb tregut dhe industris\u00eb dhe ke b\u00ebr\u00eb nj\u00eb bast shum\u00eb specifik: q\u00eb AT&T \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e dob\u00ebt se Verizon.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb gj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr q\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb hedge fund-et (n\u00ebse jan\u00eb mjaftuesh\u00ebm t\u00eb sigurt p\u00ebr bastin e tyre) \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb marrin hua para p\u00ebr t\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb para p\u00ebr bastin nga sa kan\u00eb mund\u00ebsi. N\u00eb bastin q\u00eb mor\u00ebm p\u00ebr shembull, AT&T\u2013Verizon, ata mund t\u00eb fitojn\u00eb pak para p\u00ebr \u00e7do aksion t\u00eb kompanive. Por n\u00ebse p\u00ebrdorin kryesisht para t\u00eb huazuara, mund t\u00eb blejn\u00eb shum\u00eb aksione pa vendosur shum\u00eb kapital t\u00eb tyre. Pra, n\u00ebse je shum\u00eb i sigurt q\u00eb basti \u00ebsht\u00eb i sakt\u00eb, mund t\u00eb marr\u00ebsh hua shum\u00eb para p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur fitimin e mundsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb gj\u00eb e fundit p\u00ebr t\u2019u theksuar rreth hedge fund-eve \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00ebnyra se si paguhen menaxher\u00ebt e tyre. Menaxher\u00ebt zakonisht investojn\u00eb parat\u00eb e t\u00eb tjer\u00ebve (njer\u00ebz t\u00eb pasur, fonde universitare, etj.) dhe marrin tarifa menaxhimi p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbuluar shpenzimet e fondit; kjo p\u00ebrfshin edhe pag\u00ebn e tyre. Standardi \u00ebsht\u00eb rreth 2% e fondeve n\u00ebn menaxhim. Pra, n\u00ebse menaxhon nj\u00eb hedge fund shum\u00eb t\u00eb madh p\u00ebr nga sasia e parave t\u00eb investuara, mund t\u00eb fitosh nj\u00eb t\u00eb ardhur t\u00eb mir\u00eb pavar\u00ebsisht performanc\u00ebs s\u00eb fondit. Por jo mjaftuesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u2019u b\u00ebr\u00eb miliarder.<\/p>\n Menaxher\u00ebt e hedge fund-eve b\u00ebhen miliarder\u00eb duke vendosur baste shum\u00eb t\u00eb suksesshme. Ata fitojn\u00eb rreth 20% t\u00eb kthimeve q\u00eb gjeneron fondi (me kusht q\u00eb fondi t\u00eb arrij\u00eb nj\u00eb prag minimal t\u00eb performanc\u00ebs). Pra, n\u00ebse fondi yt b\u00ebn nj\u00eb bast q\u00eb prodhon nj\u00eb kthim prej nj\u00eb miliard dollar\u00ebsh, ti dhe partner\u00ebt e tu merrni t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 200 milion\u00eb dollar\u00eb prej tyre. B\u00ebje k\u00ebt\u00eb p\u00ebr disa vite, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht duke vendosur baste gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, dhe voil\u00e0! B\u00ebhesh miliarder.<\/p>\n Pra, shkurtimisht, hedge fund-et p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb baste t\u00eb izoluara duke p\u00ebrdorur instrumente financiare. Ata marrin hua para p\u00ebr ta b\u00ebr\u00eb fitimin e mundsh\u00ebm edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb madh, dhe menaxher\u00ebt e hedge fund-eve mund t\u00eb fitojn\u00eb shuma marramend\u00ebse kur bastet e tyre dalin t\u00eb sakta. Dhe pik\u00ebrisht k\u00ebt\u00eb ishin gati t\u00eb b\u00ebnin Soros dhe partner\u00ebt e tij.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb valut\u00eb e vler\u00ebsuar gabim do t\u00eb thot\u00eb nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi e madhe\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n N\u00eb pranver\u00ebn e vitit 1992, vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb vit e gjysm\u00eb pasi Britania iu bashkua ERM-s\u00eb, kursi i fiksuar i k\u00ebmbimit p\u00ebrb\u00ebnte nj\u00eb problem serioz. Nd\u00ebrsa publikisht mbahej nj\u00eb q\u00ebndrim optimist, brenda p\u00ebr brenda Thesari (ministria e financave e Anglis\u00eb) e kuptonte se monedha ishte e vler\u00ebsuar gabim n\u00eb raport me mark\u00ebn gjermane. Jonathan Portes, ekonomist q\u00eb n\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb punonj\u00ebs i ri aty, shkroi:<\/p>\n \u201cN\u00eb maj 1992, problemi i menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm ishte i duksh\u00ebm. Nga k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrimi i brendsh\u00ebm, niveli i p\u00ebrshtatsh\u00ebm i normave t\u00eb interesit, duke pasur parasysh k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn e dob\u00ebt, ishte shum\u00eb m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt sesa ai i nevojsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb ruajtur pozicionin e paundit n\u00eb ERM.<\/em><\/p>\n P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, po b\u00ebhej gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb e qart\u00eb se paundi ishte i mbivler\u00ebsuar; vendi importonte m\u00eb shum\u00eb sesa eksportonte.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n Ne argumentonim se problemi themelor ishte se kishim hyr\u00eb n\u00eb ERM me kursin e gabuar; st\u00ebrlina ishte e mbivler\u00ebsuar, q\u00eb do t\u00eb thoshte se ishim t\u00eb mb\u00ebrthyer me nj\u00eb deficit strukturor t\u00eb llogaris\u00eb korrente.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n Paundi ishte e vler\u00ebsuar shum\u00eb lart. Qeveria britanike e dinte k\u00ebt\u00eb dhe tregu gjithashtu, pasi paundi po tregtohej n\u00eb skajin m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt t\u00eb intervalit t\u00eb r\u00ebn\u00eb dakord me mark\u00ebn gjermane (sipas marr\u00ebveshjes s\u00eb ERM).<\/p>\n Ajo q\u00eb e pengonte paundin t\u00eb binte ndjesh\u00ebm n\u00eb vler\u00eb ishte garancia e qeveris\u00eb britanike se do ta mbante t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur kursin, dhe tregu besonte se ajo do ta b\u00ebnte k\u00ebt\u00eb. P\u00ebr sa koh\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb besonin se Anglia do t\u00eb mbetej pafund\u00ebsisht e angazhuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb paund\u00eb me rreth 2.95 marka gjermane, status quo-ja ruhej.<\/p>\n Pika e shp\u00ebrthimit\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cTregjet mund t\u00eb ndikojn\u00eb ngjarjet q\u00eb ato parashikojn\u00eb.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n \u2013 George Soros<\/p>\n Gjat\u00eb ver\u00ebs s\u00eb vitit 1992, paundi britanik e mbajti pozicionin e tij. Derisa Gjermania e la Britanin\u00eb n\u00eb balt\u00eb dhe gjith\u00e7ka shp\u00ebrtheu.<\/p>\n P\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb gjat\u00eb atij viti, zyrtar\u00eb t\u00eb bank\u00ebs qendrore gjermane (bundesbanka) kishin b\u00ebr\u00eb komente, her\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb zyrtare e her\u00eb jo, q\u00eb minonin forc\u00ebn e st\u00ebrlin\u00ebs. Gazeta britanike The Independent dokumenton k\u00ebto goditje:<\/p>\n \u201cM\u00eb 25 gusht, p\u00ebr shembull, Reimut Jochimsen, an\u00ebtar i k\u00ebshillit t\u00eb Bundesbank\u00ebs, mbajti nj\u00eb fjalim duke th\u00ebn\u00eb se ekzistonte mund\u00ebsia e nj\u00eb rishikimi t\u00eb kursit brenda ERM-s\u00eb. Paundi u dob\u00ebsua. M\u00eb 10 shtator, nj\u00eb zyrtar i paidentifikuar i Bundesbank\u00ebs u citua t\u00eb ket\u00eb th\u00ebn\u00eb se nj\u00eb zhvler\u00ebsim i paundit ishte i pashmangsh\u00ebm. Paundi ra.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n Ngjarja q\u00eb \u00e7oi p\u00ebrfundimisht n\u00eb rr\u00ebzimin e kursit t\u00eb fiksuar t\u00eb paundit britanik ishte nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb me Presidentin e Bundesbank\u00ebs gjermane, Helmut Schlesinger. (p\u00ebrkthen lapsi.al) Schlesinger e dha intervist\u00ebn p\u00ebr Wall Street Journal dhe nj\u00eb gazet\u00eb gjermane. Ai kishte nj\u00eb kusht: n\u00ebse donin ta citonin drejtp\u00ebrdrejt, duhej t\u2019i lejonin atij t\u00eb rishikonte citimet. N\u00ebse do ta parafrazonin n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00ebrthort\u00eb, nj\u00eb leje e till\u00eb nuk ishte e nevojshme.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n -Presidenti i Bundesbank\u00ebs gjermane, Helmut Schlesinger<\/p>\n At\u00eb nat\u00eb, m\u00eb 16 shtator 1992, n\u00eb agjencit\u00eb e lajmeve u publikua raporti i m\u00ebposht\u00ebm, q\u00eb parafrazonte fjal\u00ebt e Schlesinger:<\/p>\n \u201cPresidenti i Bundesbank\u00ebs, profesor Helmut Schlesinger, nuk e p\u00ebrjashton mund\u00ebsin\u00eb q\u00eb, edhe pas rishikimit t\u00eb kursit dhe uljes s\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit n\u00eb Gjermani, nj\u00eb ose dy monedha mund t\u00eb vihen n\u00ebn presion p\u00ebrpara referendumit n\u00eb Franc\u00eb. Ai pranoi n\u00eb nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb se problemet, sigurisht, nuk zgjidhen plot\u00ebsisht nga masat e marra.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n N\u00eb m\u00ebngjes, raporti mb\u00ebrriti n\u00eb tavolin\u00ebn e George Soros. Soros dhe i gjith\u00eb tregu financiar e interpretuan k\u00ebt\u00eb si nj\u00eb sinjal se paundi britanik ishte nj\u00eb nga ato monedha q\u00eb mund t\u00eb \u201cvihej n\u00ebn presion\u201d<\/em> dhe t\u00eb zhvler\u00ebsohej.<\/p>\n Brenda vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb dite, ky citim n\u00eb dukje i pad\u00ebmsh\u00ebm, i parafrazuar, do t\u00eb sillte shkat\u00ebrrim p\u00ebr Bank\u00ebn e Anglis\u00eb dhe do t\u2019i siguronte George Soros m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb miliard dollar\u00eb fitim. Tregu pushoi s\u00eb besuari se Anglia do t\u00eb ishte n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb ruante kursin aktual t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit, dhe ky besim ishte e vetmja gj\u00eb q\u00eb e mbante paundin nga r\u00ebnia.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Tregtia e Shekullit<\/p>\n \u201cNuk ka kuptim t\u00eb jesh i sigurt dhe t\u00eb kesh nj\u00eb pozicion t\u00eb vog\u00ebl.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n \u2013 George Soros<\/p>\n Q\u00eb nga gushti, Soros dhe fondi i tij Quantum kishin nd\u00ebrtuar nj\u00eb pozicion prej 1.5 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebsh p\u00ebr t\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb bast se vlera e paundit do t\u00eb binte. Duke qen\u00eb se qeveria britanike garantonte me gjith\u00eb besimin dhe kredibilitetin e saj se kjo nuk do t\u00eb ndodhte, kjo nuk ishte domosdoshm\u00ebrisht di\u00e7ka e sigurt. Por Stanley Druckenmiller, nj\u00eb an\u00ebtar i lart\u00eb i fondit t\u00eb Soros, pa raportin e Schlesinger dhe e kuptoi menj\u00ebher\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsin\u00eb e tij.<\/p>\n Libri i Sebastian Mallaby, More Money Than God, p\u00ebrshkruan ngjarjet e asaj dite. Sipas Mallaby-t, Druckenmiller vuri re se basti i tyre prej 1.5 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebsh kund\u00ebr paundit ishte gati t\u00eb shp\u00ebrblente dhe sugjeroi q\u00eb duhej t\u00eb shtonin pozicionin.<\/p>\n Soros iu p\u00ebrgjigj me nj\u00eb strategji tjet\u00ebr: \u201cShko p\u00ebr arterien kryesore.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n N\u00ebse citimi i Schlesinger mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorej si katalizator p\u00ebr zhvler\u00ebsimin e paundit, pse t\u00eb mos ndodhte pik\u00ebrisht at\u00eb dit\u00eb? N\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtonte gradualisht nj\u00eb pozicion \u201cshkurtues\u201d kund\u00ebr paundit, Quantum Fund mund ta shiste n\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb paprecedent\u00eb q\u00eb at\u00eb dit\u00eb. Kjo jo vet\u00ebm do t\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtonte r\u00ebnien e paundit, por do t\u00eb rriste edhe fitimin e fondit.<\/p>\n Ishte pik\u00ebrisht ky vendim p\u00ebr t\u00eb \u201cshkuar p\u00ebr arterien kryesore\u201d<\/em> q\u00eb i siguroi firm\u00ebs s\u00eb Soros mbi nj\u00eb miliard dollar\u00eb fitim, rr\u00ebzoi regjimin monetar t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Anglis\u00eb dhe, n\u00eb fund, \u00e7oi n\u00eb diskreditimin e Kryeministrit. Ky vendim gjithashtu u kushtoi miliarda taksapaguesve britanik\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n Le t\u00eb ecim hap pas hapi n\u00eb tregtin\u00eb e Soros p\u00ebr t\u00eb kuptuar pse ishte kaq elegante. Si\u00e7 tham\u00eb m\u00eb her\u00ebt, tregtia konsistonte q\u00eb Quantum Fund t\u00eb \u201cshkurtonte\u201d paundin britanik, q\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se do t\u00eb fitonin para n\u00ebse vlera e monedh\u00ebs do t\u00eb binte.<\/p>\n Tani, \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb sakt\u00ebsisht t\u00eb \u201cshkurtosh\u201d nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb, apo \u00e7far\u00ebdo gj\u00ebje tjet\u00ebr? Le t\u00eb themi se \u00ebsht\u00eb janar 2009 dhe ju mendoni se iPhone i Apple \u00ebsht\u00eb drejt r\u00ebnies dhe se \u00e7mimi i aksionit t\u00eb kompanis\u00eb (90 dollar\u00eb) do t\u00eb bjer\u00eb. Si p\u00ebrfitoni nga ky intuit\u00eb?<\/p>\n Epo, ju mund t\u00eb shkoni te dikush q\u00eb zot\u00ebron aksione t\u00eb Apple dhe t\u2019i k\u00ebrkoni t\u2019ju huazoj\u00eb nj\u00eb aksion t\u00eb vet\u00ebm. Do t\u2019ia ktheni m\u00eb von\u00eb dhe, sigurisht, do t\u2019i paguani interes p\u00ebr huan\u00eb. Por p\u00ebr momentin, ju e shisni at\u00eb aksion p\u00ebr 90 dollar\u00eb cash. Dy dit\u00eb m\u00eb von\u00eb, \u00e7mimi i aksionit bie n\u00eb 88 dollar\u00eb, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb ju blini nj\u00eb aksion me 90 dollar\u00ebt q\u00eb keni n\u00eb dor\u00eb. Ju mbeten 2 dollar\u00eb fitim! (Pothuajse dy dollar\u00eb; duhet t\u00eb paguani interes p\u00ebr dy dit\u00ebt e huas\u00eb.)<\/p>\n Por \u00e7far\u00eb n\u00ebse nuk do ta kishit bler\u00eb aksionin kur arriti n\u00eb 88 dollar\u00eb dhe do t\u00eb kishit vendosur ta mbanit derisa t\u00eb binte m\u00eb tej? Epo, do t\u00eb ishit n\u00eb telashe, sepse aksioni u rrit nga 90 n\u00eb rreth 600 dollar\u00eb; do t\u00eb humbisnit 510 dollar\u00eb n\u00eb tregti, plus interesin!<\/p>\n N\u00ebse blini nj\u00eb aksion, maksimumi q\u00eb mund t\u00eb humbni \u00ebsht\u00eb e gjith\u00eb shuma q\u00eb keni investuar. N\u00ebse shisni short (shkurtoni) nj\u00eb aksion, humbja juaj \u00ebsht\u00eb e pakufizuar, sepse \u00e7mimi mund t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb rritet. Mund t\u00eb humbni m\u00eb shum\u00eb se gjith\u00eb kapitalin tuaj, dhe kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb keq. Prandaj, n\u00ebse merrni nj\u00eb pozicion short, doni t\u00eb siguroheni q\u00eb rreziku juaj n\u00eb an\u00ebn negative t\u00eb jet\u00eb i mbrojtur.<\/p>\n Po n\u00ebse doni t\u00eb shkurtoni nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb si paundin britanik? N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast, do t\u00eb shkoni te nj\u00eb person ose kompani britanike dhe do t\u2019i k\u00ebrkoni t\u2019ju huazoj\u00eb para. Ata thon\u00eb: \u201cSigurisht, ja 100 paund britanik\u00eb. Na i ktheni pas disa dit\u00ebsh me pak interes dhe do t\u00eb pim\u00eb \u00e7aj me biskota.\u201d<\/em> Tani, ju merrni ato 100 paund dhe i konvertoni n\u00eb 295 marka gjermane sipas kursit t\u00eb dakord\u00ebsuar.<\/p>\n N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb, ju do t\u00eb d\u00ebshironit shum\u00eb q\u00eb paundi britanik t\u00eb humbiste vler\u00eb kundrejt mark\u00ebs gjermane. Pse? Sepse n\u00ebse paundi zhvler\u00ebsohet me 10%, kur t\u2019i konvertoni 295 markat p\u00ebrs\u00ebri n\u00eb paund p\u00ebr t\u00eb shlyer huan\u00eb, do t\u00eb keni 110 paund. Mund t\u00eb ktheni 100 paund plus pak interes, dhe do t\u2019ju mbeten rreth 10 paund fitim.<\/p>\n Pra, fitoni para n\u00ebse paundi zhvler\u00ebsohet. Por \u00e7far\u00eb n\u00ebse paundi forcohet? Do t\u00eb humbisnit gjith\u00e7ka. K\u00ebtu q\u00ebndronte brilanca e bastit t\u00eb Soros: n\u00ebse paundi rr\u00ebzohej, ata do t\u00eb fitonin miliarda nga pozicioni short. Dhe n\u00ebse paundi rritej n\u00eb vler\u00eb? Epo, ai skenar ishte i pamundur sepse t\u00eb gjith\u00eb e dinin q\u00eb st\u00ebrlina ishte e mbivler\u00ebsuar. Ajo tashm\u00eb tregtohej n\u00eb fundin e band\u00ebs s\u00eb lejuar, dhe e vetmja gj\u00eb q\u00eb e mbante ishte nd\u00ebrhyrja e qeveris\u00eb. Nuk kishte asnj\u00eb skenar ku paundi do t\u00eb forcohej.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Pra, ose paundi do t\u00eb q\u00ebndronte af\u00ebrsisht n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin nivel (rast n\u00eb t\u00eb cilin fondi i Soros nuk do t\u00eb fitonte, por as nuk do t\u00eb humbiste shum\u00eb), ose do t\u00eb zhvler\u00ebsohej dhe firma do t\u00eb fitonte nj\u00eb shum\u00eb marramend\u00ebse. Nuk kishte rrezik t\u00eb madh n\u00eb an\u00ebn negative , vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb potencial gjigant n\u00eb an\u00ebn pozitive.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Si\u00e7 e p\u00ebrmbledh libri The Handbook of Hedge Funds:<\/p>\n \u201cN\u00ebse spekulator\u00ebt do t\u00eb thyenin ERM-n\u00eb, t\u00eb qen\u00ebt short me paundin mund t\u00eb rezultonte nj\u00eb pozicion shum\u00eb fitimprur\u00ebs. Edhe n\u00ebse zhvler\u00ebsimi nuk do t\u00eb ndodhte, gjasat q\u00eb paundi t\u00eb forcohej ishin t\u00eb vogla \u2014 ishte m\u00eb e mundshme t\u00eb q\u00ebndronte duke u luhatur n\u00eb dysheme e p\u00ebrcaktuar nga ERM. E vetmja an\u00eb negative p\u00ebr spekulator\u00ebt ishin kostot e transaksionit.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n Dhe k\u00ebshtu, at\u00eb m\u00ebngjes, Soros dhe fondi i tij e rrit\u00ebn pozicionin short kund\u00ebr paundit britanik nga 1.5 miliard\u00eb n\u00eb 10 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb. Ishte basti i p\u00ebrsosur me nj\u00eb rrezik t\u00eb kufizuar dhe nj\u00eb fitim potencialisht t\u00eb pakufizuar. Ishte si t\u00eb vije bast p\u00ebr hedhjen e nj\u00eb monedhe: n\u00ebse del \u201ckok\u00eb\u201d (paundi zhvler\u00ebsohet), fiton shum\u00eb para. N\u00ebse del \u201cpil\u201d (kursi mbetet i fiksuar), humbet vet\u00ebm pak para p\u00ebr interesin e huas\u00eb. \u00cbsht\u00eb lloji i bastit ku Soros do t\u00eb hidhte para gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb dit\u00ebs, edhe n\u00ebse do t\u2019i duhej t\u00eb huazonte miliarda.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Duke luftuar spekulator\u00ebt<\/p>\n \u201cPozicioni yn\u00eb total deri t\u00eb M\u00ebrkur\u00ebn e Zez\u00eb duhej t\u00eb ishte pothuajse 10 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb. Planifikonim t\u00eb shisnim m\u00eb shum\u00eb se kaq. N\u00eb fakt, kur Norman Lamont [ministri britanik i financave] tha pak para zhvler\u00ebsimit se do t\u00eb huazonte afro 15 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbrojtur st\u00ebrlin\u00ebn, u arg\u00ebtuam sepse ishte af\u00ebrsisht aq paund\u00eb sa ne donim t\u00eb shisnim.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n \u2013 George Soros, 1992<\/p>\n Nd\u00ebrsa Europa flinte, Soros huazonte dhe shiste paund nga kushdo q\u00eb mundej. Pozicioni i Quantum Fund kaloi 10 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb short kund\u00ebr paundit. Fonde t\u00eb tjera hedge mor\u00ebn vesh p\u00ebr tregtin\u00eb (dhe raportin nga Bundesbank) dhe filluan t\u00eb b\u00ebnin t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn gj\u00eb, duke huazuar dhe shitur paund.<\/p>\n Kur tregjet e Londr\u00ebs u hap\u00ebn dhe zyrtar\u00ebt e thesarit britanik nis\u00ebn dit\u00ebn e pun\u00ebs, dhjet\u00ebra miliarda paund ishin shitur. Paundi ishte rreziksh\u00ebm af\u00ebr r\u00ebnies n\u00ebn nivelet e detyruara nga ERM.<\/p>\n Banka e Anglis\u00eb po p\u00ebrballej me nj\u00eb dit\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb keqe.<\/p>\n Zyrtar\u00ebt britanik\u00eb reaguan fillimisht duke bler\u00eb nj\u00eb miliard paund n\u00eb or\u00ebn 8:40 t\u00eb m\u00ebngjesit. Blerja nuk pati asnj\u00eb efekt mbi \u00e7mimin e paundit. E gjith\u00eb bota po shiste dhe qeveria britanike nuk kishte fuqin\u00eb bler\u00ebse p\u00ebr ta p\u00ebrballuar. Vler\u00ebsohet se qeveria britanike shpenzoi 27 miliard\u00eb paund nga rezervat e saj duke bler\u00eb paund, pa rezultat.<\/p>\n N\u00eb or\u00ebn 9:00, ministri i financave Norman Lamont kontaktoi kryeministrin John Major dhe i tha se ishte e pamundur t\u00eb blinin mjaftuesh\u00ebm paund p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbajtur monedh\u00ebn t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur. Opsioni i vet\u00ebm q\u00eb mbetej p\u00ebr t\u00eb ruajtur kursin ishte rritja dramatike e normave t\u00eb interesit p\u00ebr t\u00eb t\u00ebrhequr bler\u00ebs. Kryeministri Major refuzoi. Britania ishte n\u00eb mes t\u00eb nj\u00eb recesioni dhe rritja e normave do ta tkurrte edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb. Do t\u00eb ishte vet\u00ebvrasje politike.<\/p>\n Tani po derdhej gjak. Tregjet financiare globale vazhdonin t\u00eb vinin baste kund\u00ebr paundit. Nj\u00eb or\u00eb e gjysm\u00eb m\u00eb von\u00eb, Lamont e telefonoi s\u00ebrish kryeministrin p\u00ebr ta bindur. K\u00ebt\u00eb her\u00eb kryeministri u dor\u00ebzua. N\u00eb or\u00ebn 11:00, qeveria britanike njoftoi rritjen e normave t\u00eb interesit nga 10% n\u00eb 12%. (k\u00ebto jan\u00eb shifra t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme)<\/p>\n Si reagoi paundi ndaj k\u00ebsaj rritjeje t\u00eb madhe? Asgj\u00eb. Paundi vazhdoi t\u00eb binte. Lamont shkoi n\u00eb rezidenc\u00ebn e kryeministrit p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjetur nj\u00eb zgjidhje, gj\u00eb q\u00eb \u00e7oi n\u00eb njoftimin e nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr rritjeje, nga 12% n\u00eb 15%.<\/p>\n Cili ishte efekti i k\u00ebsaj rritjeje mbi paundin? P\u00ebrs\u00ebri, asgj\u00eb. Si\u00e7 dokumenton m\u00eb von\u00eb Mallaby n\u00eb librin e tij, Soros dhe grupi i spekulator\u00ebve e dinin se fitorja ishte af\u00ebr:<\/p>\n \u201cN\u00eb tavolinat e tyre n\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb Atlantikut, Druckenmiller dhe Soros i pan\u00eb rritjet e normave si nj\u00eb akt d\u00ebshp\u00ebrimi nga nj\u00eb njeri n\u00eb agoni. Ishin nj\u00eb sinjal se fundi po afrohej, dhe se ishte koha p\u00ebr nj\u00eb shtytje t\u00eb fundit p\u00ebr ta shitur deri n\u00eb fund monedh\u00ebn britanike.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n Tregu priste q\u00eb Britania do t\u00eb detyrohej t\u00eb zhvler\u00ebsonte monedh\u00ebn dhe se asnj\u00eb rritje norme apo blerje monedhe nuk do ta ndryshonte k\u00ebt\u00eb. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb pik\u00eb, pritshm\u00ebria q\u00eb Britania do t\u00eb dilte nga ERM dhe do t\u00eb zhvler\u00ebsonte monedh\u00ebn ishte b\u00ebr\u00eb nj\u00eb profeci vet\u00ebp\u00ebrmbush\u00ebse; n\u00ebse spekulator\u00ebt e besonin mjaftuesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb parat\u00eb e tyre pas saj, ajo do t\u00eb ndodhte.<\/p>\n N\u00eb or\u00ebn 19:30 t\u00eb asaj mbr\u00ebmjeje, Lamont mbajti nj\u00eb konferenc\u00eb p\u00ebr shtyp p\u00ebr t\u00eb njoftuar se Britania do t\u00eb dilte nga ERM dhe do ta linte monedh\u00ebn t\u00eb luhatej lirsh\u00ebm n\u00eb treg. Soros dhe spekulator\u00ebt fituan.<\/p>\n Pasojat e \u201ct\u00eb m\u00ebrkur\u00ebs s\u00eb zez\u00eb\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Historia financiare britanike tashm\u00eb i referohet 17 shtatorit 1992 si \u201cE M\u00ebrkura e Zez\u00eb\u201d; George Soros, megjithat\u00eb, ndoshta e quan di\u00e7ka si \u201cE M\u00ebrkura e Mrekullueshme\u201d. Pasi Britania e Madhe la monedh\u00ebn t\u00eb luhatej lirsh\u00ebm, paundi ra me 15% kundrejt mark\u00ebs gjermane dhe 25% kundrejt dollarit amerikan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n -Si\u00e7 do ta mbani mend, Quantum Fund i Soros kishte af\u00ebrsisht 15 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb t\u00eb vendosura n\u00eb bast se paundi do t\u00eb binte kundrejt monedhave t\u00eb tjera. Ata kishin huazuar miliarda p\u00ebr ta b\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb tregti, dhe kishin t\u00eb drejt\u00eb. Ja \u00e7far\u00eb ndodhi me vler\u00ebn e fondit t\u00eb tyre krahasuar me \u00e7mimin e paundit:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n -Burimi: The Handbook of Hedge Funds\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Vlera e fondit u rrit pothuajse menj\u00ebher\u00eb nga 15 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb 19 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb sapo paundi u la t\u00eb luhatej lirsh\u00ebm; disa muaj m\u00eb von\u00eb, fondi vlente pothuajse 22 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb. Mbani mend, ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb hedge fund, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb Soros dhe partner\u00ebt e tij mor\u00ebn t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 20% t\u00eb atyre 7 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00ebve fitim, q\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 1.4 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb. Dhe k\u00ebshtu miq, b\u00ebhesh miliarder.<\/p>\n Natyra e tregtimit n\u00eb Wall Street \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00ebse ti fiton shum\u00eb, dikush tjet\u00ebr duhet t\u00eb humbas\u00eb shum\u00eb. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast, pati nj\u00eb transferim t\u00eb madh pasurie nga taksapaguesit britanik\u00eb tek Soros dhe menaxher\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb t\u00eb hedge fund-eve. The Guardian rr\u00ebfen:<\/p>\n \u201cJim Trott, ish-shefi i tregtimit p\u00ebr Bank\u00ebn e Anglis\u00eb, e p\u00ebrshkroi dit\u00ebn si \u2018jasht\u00ebzakonisht t\u00eb kushtueshme\u2019. Ai tha se prapa skenave bleu m\u00eb shum\u00eb sterlina n\u00eb kat\u00ebr or\u00eb at\u00eb dit\u00eb se kushdo m\u00eb par\u00eb apo m\u00eb pas. T\u00eb gjitha blerjet e tij humb\u00ebn vler\u00eb gjat\u00eb dit\u00ebs, dhe ran\u00eb edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb kur qeveria u t\u00ebrhoq.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n N\u00eb prag t\u00eb zhvler\u00ebsimit, Thesari britanik vazhdoi t\u00eb shpenzonte valut\u00ebn e huaj p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb paund\u00eb britanik\u00eb q\u00eb u b\u00ebn\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb pak t\u00eb vlefsh\u00ebm pasi kursi i k\u00ebmbimit u la i lir\u00eb. P\u00ebr t\u00eb ruajtur fiksionin se paundi ishte i \u00e7muar sakt\u00eb, n\u00eb thelb pagoi nj\u00eb dollar p\u00ebr di\u00e7ka q\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb e dinin se do t\u00eb vlente tre t\u00eb kat\u00ebrtat. Kostoja p\u00ebr taksapaguesit britanik\u00eb u vler\u00ebsua rreth 3.3 miliard\u00eb paund.<\/p>\n Humbja e miliardave dollar\u00eb nga parat\u00eb e taksapaguesve \u00ebsht\u00eb aq e zakonshme p\u00ebr politikan\u00ebt, sa mund t\u00eb mos humbasin shum\u00eb gjum\u00eb p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb. Por ata shqet\u00ebsohen p\u00ebr pasojat politike t\u00eb dukjes publike si nj\u00eb tuf\u00eb t\u00eb paaft\u00ebsh. Nuk mund t\u00eb b\u00ebsh disa njoftime brenda nj\u00eb dite se po rrit masivisht normat e interesit n\u00eb mes t\u00eb nj\u00eb recesioni apo se po ndryshon t\u00ebr\u00ebsisht m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn si funksionon valuta e huaj, pa i dh\u00ebn\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00ebve p\u00ebrshtypjen se nuk ke asnj\u00eb ide \u00e7far\u00eb po b\u00ebn.<\/p>\n John Major e kishte b\u00ebr\u00eb hyrjen n\u00eb ERM gurthemel t\u00eb politik\u00ebs s\u00eb tij monetare dhe planit p\u00ebr t\u00eb sjell\u00eb kursim n\u00eb Angli. Ngjarjet ia shkat\u00ebrruan besueshm\u00ebrin\u00eb. Votuesit e nxor\u00ebn Majorin dhe partin\u00eb e tij nga pushteti n\u00eb zgjedhjet e radh\u00ebs. Si\u00e7 rezultoi, Margaret Thatcher kishte t\u00eb drejt\u00eb: Mbret\u00ebria e Bashkuar nuk kishte pun\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqej t\u00eb mbante artificialisht t\u00eb fort\u00eb monedh\u00ebn e saj n\u00eb nj\u00eb epok\u00eb kur nj\u00eb grusht hedge fund-esh mund t\u00eb grumbullonin m\u00eb shum\u00eb kapital n\u00eb pak or\u00eb sesa kishte n\u00eb dispozicion Banka e Anglis\u00eb.<\/p>\n N\u00ebse po k\u00ebrkoni nj\u00eb m\u00ebsim nga kjo histori, ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb prej tyre. Shuma e parave q\u00eb qarkullon n\u00eb tregjet globale \u00ebsht\u00eb aq e madhe sa mund t\u00eb gjunj\u00ebzoj\u00eb edhe qeverin\u00eb britanike brenda nj\u00eb dite. Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr m\u00ebsim \u00ebsht\u00eb se rregullore t\u00eb tilla mund t\u00eb krijojn\u00eb boshll\u00ebqe t\u00eb papritura, dhe dikush m\u00eb i zgjuar se politikan\u00ebt do ta dalloj\u00eb p\u00ebrfundimisht.<\/p>\n Por ndoshta m\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishmja, kjo histori tregon fuqin\u00eb e bastit t\u00eb nj\u00ebansh\u00ebm. N\u00eb vitin 1992, basti ishte nj\u00eb tregti makroekonomike e nd\u00ebrtuar me zgjuarsi kund\u00ebr kurseve fikse t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit, e ekzekutuar nga George Soros dhe ekipi i tij. N\u00ebse do t\u00eb kishin gabuar, humbja do t\u00eb ishte pothuajse zero. Por ata kishin t\u00eb drejt\u00eb, dhe fitimi ishte i paimagjinuesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n Baste t\u00eb tilla rrall\u00eb paraqiten, por kur ndodhin, transferime t\u00eb m\u00ebdha pasurie kalojn\u00eb nga delet tek ujq\u00ebrit.<\/p>\n P\u00ebrgatiti n\u00eb shqip \u00a9LAPSI.AL\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n The post Basti q\u00eb e ktheu n\u00eb mit: Si u b\u00eb Soros figura m\u00eb e frikshme e financ\u00ebs bot\u00ebrore<\/a> appeared first on Lapsi.al<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" N\u00eb shtator 1992, nj\u00eb njeri i vet\u00ebm arriti at\u00eb q\u00eb dukej e pamundur: e detyroi Bank\u00ebn e Anglis\u00eb t\u00eb dor\u00ebzohej. George Soros nuk sulmoi me tanke, por me nj\u00eb ide: se paundi britanik ishte i mbivler\u00ebsuar dhe se qeveria po mbronte nj\u00eb iluzion. Ai priti momentin kur tregu do ta kuptonte k\u00ebt\u00eb, lexoi sinjalin vendimtar […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-70061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70061","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70061"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70061\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70061"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70061"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70061"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\u2013 John Major, mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebs kryesor i ERM nd\u00ebrsa sh\u00ebrbente n\u00ebn Kryeministren Margaret Thatcher. Major ishte Kryeminist\u00ebr kur, si t\u00eb thuash, erdhi momenti i pasojave.<\/h5>\n
Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb n\u00eb qytetin e Nju Jorkut<\/h4>\n
\u2013 Dora vet\u00eb, George Soros. Foto nga \u201cCharlie Rose\u201d.<\/h5>\n