Shtetet e Bashkuara duket se jan\u00eb gati t\u00eb godasin Iranin brenda pak dit\u00ebsh.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrsa objektivat e mundshme jan\u00eb kryesisht t\u00eb parashikueshme, rezultati nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Pra, n\u00ebse nuk arrihet nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje e minut\u00ebs s\u00eb fundit me Teheranin dhe Presidenti Donald Trump vendos t\u00eb urdh\u00ebroj\u00eb forcat amerikane t\u00eb sulmojn\u00eb, at\u00ebher\u00eb cilat jan\u00eb rezultatet e mundshme?<\/p>\n
Forcat ajrore dhe detare amerikane kryejn\u00eb goditje t\u00eb kufizuara dhe precize duke synuar bazat ushtarake t\u00eb Gard\u00ebs Revolucionare Islamike t\u00eb Iranit (IRGC) dhe nj\u00ebsin\u00eb Basij \u2013 nj\u00eb forc\u00eb paramilitare n\u00ebn kontrollin e IRGC \u2013 vendet e l\u00ebshimit dhe ruajtjes s\u00eb raketave balistike, si dhe programin b\u00ebrthamor t\u00eb Iranit.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb regjim tashm\u00eb i dob\u00ebsuar rr\u00ebzohet, duke kaluar eventualisht n\u00eb nj\u00eb demokraci t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb ku Irani mund t\u2019i bashkohet pjes\u00ebs tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb bot\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb skenar shum\u00eb optimist. Nd\u00ebrhyrja ushtarake per\u00ebndimore si n\u00eb Irak ashtu edhe n\u00eb Libi nuk solli nj\u00eb tranzicion t\u00eb qet\u00eb drejt demokracis\u00eb. Edhe pse i dha fund diktaturave brutale n\u00eb t\u00eb dy rastet, ajo solli vite kaosi dhe gjakderdhjeje.<\/p>\n
Siria, e cila kreu revolucionin e saj, duke rr\u00ebzuar Presidentin Bashar Al-Assad pa mb\u00ebshtetje ushtarake per\u00ebndimore n\u00eb 2024, deri tani ka ecur m\u00eb mir\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Kjo mund t\u00eb quhet gjer\u00ebsisht \u201cmodeli venezuelian\u201d, ku veprimi i shpejt\u00eb dhe i fuqish\u00ebm amerikan e l\u00eb regjimin n\u00eb k\u00ebmb\u00eb, por me politikat e tij t\u00eb moderuara.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb rastin e Iranit, kjo do t\u00eb thoshte se Republika Islamike mbijeton, gj\u00eb q\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb k\u00ebnaqte shum\u00eb iranian\u00eb, por detyrohet t\u00eb kufizoj\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjen e saj p\u00ebr milicit\u00eb e dhunshme n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, t\u00eb ndaloj\u00eb ose kufizoj\u00eb programet e saj b\u00ebrthamore dhe t\u00eb raketave balistike, si dhe t\u00eb zbus\u00eb shtypjen e protestave brenda vendit.<\/p>\n
S\u00ebrish, kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb skajin m\u00eb pak t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm t\u00eb shkall\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Udh\u00ebheqja e Republik\u00ebs Islamike ka mbetur sfiduese dhe rezistente ndaj ndryshimit p\u00ebr 47 vjet. Ajo duket e paaft\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndryshuar kurs tani.<\/p>\n
Shum\u00eb mendojn\u00eb se ky \u00ebsht\u00eb rezultati m\u00eb i mundsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrsa regjimi \u00ebsht\u00eb qart\u00ebsisht jopopullor p\u00ebr shum\u00eb njer\u00ebz, dhe \u00e7do val\u00eb protestash gjat\u00eb viteve e dob\u00ebson m\u00eb tej, mbetet nj\u00eb shtet i thell\u00eb sigurie i madh dhe i p\u00ebrhapur me interes t\u00eb madh p\u00ebr ruajtjen e status quo-s\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Arsyet kryesore pse protestat deri tani nuk kan\u00eb arritur ta rr\u00ebzojn\u00eb regjimin jan\u00eb se nuk ka pasur dezertime t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme n\u00eb an\u00ebn e tyre, nd\u00ebrsa ata q\u00eb jan\u00eb n\u00eb kontroll jan\u00eb t\u00eb gatsh\u00ebm t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorin forc\u00eb dhe brutalitet t\u00eb pakufizuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb q\u00ebndruar n\u00eb pushtet.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb konfuzionin pas \u00e7do goditjeje amerikane \u00ebsht\u00eb e imagjinueshme q\u00eb Irani t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb i sunduar nga nj\u00eb qeveri e fort\u00eb ushtarake e p\u00ebrb\u00ebr\u00eb kryesisht nga figura t\u00eb IRGC-s\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Irani ka premtuar t\u00eb hakmerret ndaj \u00e7do sulmi amerikan, duke th\u00ebn\u00eb se \u201cgishti i tij \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebmb\u00ebz\u201d.<\/p>\n
Ai nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb aspak i barabart\u00eb me fuqin\u00eb e Marin\u00ebs dhe Forcave Ajrore t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb, por mund t\u00eb godas\u00eb me arsenalin e tij t\u00eb raketave balistike dhe dron\u00ebve, shum\u00eb prej t\u00eb cil\u00ebve t\u00eb fshehur n\u00eb shpella, n\u00ebn tok\u00eb ose n\u00eb male t\u00eb larg\u00ebta.<\/p>\n
Ka baza dhe objekte amerikane t\u00eb shp\u00ebrndara p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb an\u00ebs arabe t\u00eb Gjirit, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb Bahrein dhe Katar, por Irani gjithashtu mund t\u00eb synoj\u00eb infrastruktur\u00ebn kritike t\u00eb \u00e7do vendi q\u00eb e konsideron bashk\u00ebpun\u00ebtor n\u00eb nj\u00eb sulm amerikan, si Jordania.<\/p>\n
Sulmi shkat\u00ebrrues me raketa dhe dron\u00eb ndaj objekteve petrokimike t\u00eb Saudi Aramco n\u00eb 2019, i atribuar nj\u00eb milicie t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur nga Irani n\u00eb Irak, tregoi sa t\u00eb preksh\u00ebm ishin saudit\u00ebt ndaj raketave iraniane.<\/p>\n
Fqinj\u00ebt arab\u00eb t\u00eb Gjirit t\u00eb Iranit, t\u00eb gjith\u00eb aleat\u00eb t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb, jan\u00eb kuptuesh\u00ebm shum\u00eb t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuar tani se \u00e7do veprim ushtarak amerikan do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb duke u kthyer kund\u00ebr tyre.<\/p>\n
Kjo ka qen\u00eb prej koh\u00ebsh nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim i mundsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr transportin global dhe furnizimet me naft\u00eb q\u00eb nga lufta Iran-Irak e viteve 1980-88, kur Irani v\u00ebrtet minoi rrug\u00ebt detare dhe anijet britanike p\u00ebr pastrimin e minave ndihmuan n\u00eb pastrimin e tyre.<\/p>\n
Ngushtica e Hormuzit midis Iranit dhe Omanit \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb pik\u00eb kritike bllokimi. Rreth 20% e eksporteve bot\u00ebrore t\u00eb gazit natyror t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm (LNG) dhe midis 20-25% e naft\u00ebs dhe n\u00ebnprodukteve t\u00eb saj kalojn\u00eb p\u00ebrmes k\u00ebsaj ngushtice \u00e7do vit.<\/p>\n
Irani ka kryer st\u00ebrvitje n\u00eb vendosjen e shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb minave detare. N\u00ebse do ta b\u00ebnte k\u00ebt\u00eb, kjo do t\u00eb ndikonte n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pashmangshme tregtin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore dhe \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb kapiten i Marin\u00ebs Amerikane n\u00eb bordin e nj\u00eb anijeje luftarake n\u00eb Gjirin Persik m\u00eb tha nj\u00ebher\u00eb se nj\u00eb nga k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimet nga Irani q\u00eb e shqet\u00ebson m\u00eb shum\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb \u201csulm me tuf\u00eb\u201d.<\/p>\n
Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb kur Irani l\u00ebshon kaq shum\u00eb dron\u00eb me eksploziv t\u00eb lart\u00eb dhe varka torpedoje t\u00eb shpejta ndaj nj\u00eb ose disa objektivave, saq\u00eb edhe mbrojtjet e frikshme af\u00ebr-sip\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsore t\u00eb Marin\u00ebs Amerikane nuk jan\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u2019i eliminojn\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha n\u00eb koh\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Marina e IRGC-s\u00eb ka z\u00ebvend\u00ebsuar prej koh\u00ebsh marin\u00ebn konvencionale iraniane n\u00eb Gjirin Persik, disa nga komandant\u00ebt e s\u00eb cil\u00ebs madje ishin trajnuar n\u00eb Dartmouth gjat\u00eb koh\u00ebs s\u00eb Shahut.<\/p>\n
Ekipazhet detare iraniane kan\u00eb p\u00ebrqendruar shum\u00eb nga trajnimi i tyre n\u00eb luft\u00ebn jokonvencionale ose \u201casimetrike\u201d, duke k\u00ebrkuar m\u00ebnyra p\u00ebr t\u00eb kap\u00ebrcyer ose shmangur avantazhet teknike t\u00eb armikut t\u00eb tyre kryesor, Flot\u00ebs s\u00eb Pest\u00eb t\u00eb Marin\u00ebs Amerikane.<\/p>\n
Fundosja e nj\u00eb anijeje luftarake amerikane, e shoq\u00ebruar me kapjen e mundshme t\u00eb t\u00eb mbijetuarve nga ekuipazhi, do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb posht\u00ebrim masiv p\u00ebr SHBA-n\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrsa ky skenar konsiderohet i pamundur, shkat\u00ebrruesi me vler\u00eb miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb USS Cole u d\u00ebmtua r\u00ebnd\u00eb nga nj\u00eb sulm vet\u00ebvras\u00ebs i Al-Kaed\u00ebs n\u00eb portin e Adenit n\u00eb 2000, duke vrar\u00eb 17 marinar\u00eb amerikan\u00eb.<\/p>\n
M\u00eb par\u00eb, n\u00eb 1987, nj\u00eb pilot irakian gabimisht q\u00eblloi dy raketa Exocet ndaj nj\u00eb anijeje luftarake amerikane, USS Stark, duke vrar\u00eb 37 marinar\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb rrezik shum\u00eb real dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb nga shqet\u00ebsimet kryesore t\u00eb fqinj\u00ebve si Katari dhe Arabia Saudite.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrve\u00e7 mund\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb nj\u00eb lufte civile, si\u00e7 u p\u00ebrjetua n\u00eb Siri, Jemen dhe Libi, ekziston gjithashtu rreziku q\u00eb n\u00eb kaos dhe konfuzion, tensionet etnike t\u00eb shp\u00ebrthejn\u00eb n\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb armatosur, nd\u00ebrsa kurd\u00ebt, balu\u00e7\u00ebt dhe pakicat e tjera p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb mbrojn\u00eb popullin e tyre mes nj\u00eb vakuumi komb\u00ebtar pushteti.<\/p>\n
Pjesa m\u00eb e madhe e Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme do t\u00eb ishte patjet\u00ebr e lumtur t\u00eb shihte fundin e Republik\u00ebs Islamike, askush m\u00eb shum\u00eb se Izraeli, i cili tashm\u00eb ka dh\u00ebn\u00eb goditje t\u00eb r\u00ebnda ndaj p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuesve t\u00eb Iranit n\u00eb rajon dhe q\u00eb frik\u00ebsohet nga nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim ekzistencial nga programi i dyshuar b\u00ebrthamor i Iranit.<\/p>\n
Por askush nuk d\u00ebshiron t\u00eb shoh\u00eb vendin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh t\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme sipas popullsis\u00eb \u2013 rreth 93 milion \u2013 t\u00eb zhytet n\u00eb kaos, duke shkaktuar nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb humanitare dhe refugjat\u00ebsh.<\/p>\n
Rreziku m\u00eb i madh tani \u00ebsht\u00eb se Presidenti Trump, pasi ka grumbulluar k\u00ebt\u00eb forc\u00eb t\u00eb fuqishme pran\u00eb kufijve t\u00eb Iranit, vendos se duhet t\u00eb veproj\u00eb ose t\u00eb humbas\u00eb fytyr\u00ebn, dhe nj\u00eb luft\u00eb fillon pa nj\u00eb gjendje p\u00ebrfundimtare t\u00eb qart\u00eb dhe me pasoja t\u00eb paparashikueshme dhe potencialisht d\u00ebmtuese.<\/p>\n
The post SHBA duket se do t\u00eb sulmojn\u00eb Iranin: Shtat\u00eb skenar\u00ebt se \u00e7far\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb<\/a> appeared first on Lapsi.al<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Shtetet e Bashkuara duket se jan\u00eb gati t\u00eb godasin Iranin brenda pak dit\u00ebsh. Nd\u00ebrsa objektivat e mundshme jan\u00eb kryesisht t\u00eb parashikueshme, rezultati nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb. Pra, n\u00ebse nuk arrihet nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje e minut\u00ebs s\u00eb fundit me Teheranin dhe Presidenti Donald Trump vendos t\u00eb urdh\u00ebroj\u00eb forcat amerikane t\u00eb sulmojn\u00eb, at\u00ebher\u00eb cilat jan\u00eb rezultatet e mundshme? 1. Goditje […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-67147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67147","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67147"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67147\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}