SHBA-t\u00eb duket se jan\u00eb gati ta sulmojn\u00eb Iranin brenda pak dit\u00ebsh, shkruan sot BBC. <\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrsa objektivat e mundsh\u00ebm jan\u00eb kryesisht t\u00eb parashikuesh\u00ebm, rezultati nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Pra, n\u00ebse nuk mund t\u00eb arrihet nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje e minut\u00ebs s\u00eb fundit me Teheranin dhe Presidenti Donald Trump vendos t\u2019u urdh\u00ebroj\u00eb forcave amerikane t\u00eb sulmojn\u00eb, at\u00ebher\u00eb cilat jan\u00eb rezultatet e mundshme?<\/p>\n
1. Sulme t\u00eb synuara, kirurgjikale, viktima minimale civile, nj\u00eb tranzicion drejt demokracis\u00eb<\/p>\n
Forcat ajrore dhe detare amerikane kryejn\u00eb sulme t\u00eb kufizuara dhe precize duke synuar bazat ushtarake t\u00eb Korpusit t\u00eb Gard\u00ebs Revolucionare Islamike (IRGC) t\u00eb Iranit dhe nj\u00ebsin\u00eb Basij, nj\u00eb forc\u00eb paraushtarake n\u00ebn kontrollin e IRGC, vendet e l\u00ebshimit dhe magazinimit t\u00eb raketave balistike, si dhe programin b\u00ebrthamor t\u00eb Iranit.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb regjim tashm\u00eb i dob\u00ebsuar \u00ebsht\u00eb rr\u00ebzuar, duke kaluar p\u00ebrfundimisht n\u00eb nj\u00eb demokraci t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb ku Irani mund t\u00eb ribashkohet me pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb bot\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb skenar shum\u00eb optimist. Nd\u00ebrhyrja ushtarake per\u00ebndimore si n\u00eb Irak ashtu edhe n\u00eb Libi nuk solli nj\u00eb tranzicion t\u00eb qet\u00eb drejt demokracis\u00eb. Edhe pse i dha fund diktaturave brutale n\u00eb t\u00eb dyja rastet, ajo solli vite kaosi dhe gjakderdhjeje.<\/p>\n
Siria, e cila kreu revolucionin e vet, duke rr\u00ebzuar Presidentin Bashar Al-Assad pa mb\u00ebshtetjen ushtarake per\u00ebndimore n\u00eb vitin 2024, deri m\u00eb tani ka ecur m\u00eb mir\u00eb.<\/p>\n
2. Regjimi mbijeton, por i moderon politikat e tij<\/p>\n
Kjo mund t\u00eb quhet gjer\u00ebsisht \u201cmodeli venezuelian\u201d, ku veprimi i shpejt\u00eb dhe i fuqish\u00ebm i SHBA-s\u00eb e l\u00eb regjimin t\u00eb paprekur, por me politikat e tij t\u00eb moderuara.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb rastin e Iranit, kjo do t\u00eb thoshte se Republika Islamike mbijetoi, gj\u00eb q\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb k\u00ebnaq\u00eb nj\u00eb num\u00ebr t\u00eb madh iranian\u00ebsh, por \u00ebsht\u00eb e detyruar t\u00eb kufizoj\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjen e saj p\u00ebr milicit\u00eb e dhunshme n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, t\u00eb nd\u00ebrpres\u00eb ose t\u00eb kufizoj\u00eb programet e saj t\u00eb brendshme b\u00ebrthamore dhe t\u00eb raketave balistike, si dhe t\u00eb leht\u00ebsoj\u00eb shtypjen e protestave.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrs\u00ebri, kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb fundin m\u00eb t\u00eb pamundur t\u00eb shkall\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Udh\u00ebheqja e Republik\u00ebs Islamike ka mbetur sfiduese dhe rezistente ndaj ndryshimeve p\u00ebr 47 vjet. Duket e paaft\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshoj\u00eb kursin tani.<\/p>\n
3. Regjimi bie, i z\u00ebvend\u00ebsuar nga sundimi ushtarak<\/p>\n
Shum\u00eb njer\u00ebz mendojn\u00eb se ky \u00ebsht\u00eb rezultati m\u00eb i mundsh\u00ebm. Nd\u00ebrsa regjimi \u00ebsht\u00eb qart\u00ebsisht jopopullor tek shum\u00eb njer\u00ebz, dhe \u00e7do val\u00eb e nj\u00ebpasnj\u00ebshme protestash gjat\u00eb viteve e dob\u00ebson at\u00eb m\u00eb tej, mbetet nj\u00eb shtet i thell\u00eb sigurie i madh dhe i p\u00ebrhapur me nj\u00eb interes t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb n\u00eb status quo-n\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Arsyet kryesore pse protestat deri m\u00eb tani kan\u00eb d\u00ebshtuar n\u00eb p\u00ebrmbysjen e regjimit jan\u00eb sepse nuk ka pasur dezertime t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme n\u00eb an\u00ebn e tyre, nd\u00ebrsa ata q\u00eb jan\u00eb n\u00eb kontroll jan\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitur t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorin forc\u00eb dhe brutalitet t\u00eb pakufizuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb q\u00ebndruar n\u00eb pushtet.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb konfuzionin q\u00eb vjen pas \u00e7do sulmi amerikan, \u00ebsht\u00eb e mundur q\u00eb Irani t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb duke u sunduar nga nj\u00eb qeveri e fort\u00eb ushtarake e p\u00ebrb\u00ebr\u00eb kryesisht nga figura t\u00eb IRGC-s\u00eb. 4. Irani hakmerret duke sulmuar forcat amerikane dhe fqinj\u00ebt. Irani \u00ebsht\u00eb zotuar t\u00eb hakmerret ndaj \u00e7do sulmi t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb, duke th\u00ebn\u00eb se \u201cgishti i tij \u00ebsht\u00eb te k\u00ebmb\u00ebza\u201d .<\/p>\n
\u00cbsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb se nuk mund t\u00eb krahasohet me fuqin\u00eb e Marin\u00ebs dhe Forcave Ajrore t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb, por prap\u00ebseprap\u00eb mund t\u00eb sulmoj\u00eb me arsenalin e saj t\u00eb raketave balistike dhe dron\u00ebve, shum\u00eb prej t\u00eb cil\u00ebve t\u00eb fshehur n\u00eb shpella, n\u00ebn tok\u00eb ose n\u00eb shpate t\u00eb larg\u00ebta malore.<\/p>\n
Ekzistojn\u00eb baza dhe objekte amerikane t\u00eb shp\u00ebrndara p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb an\u00ebs arabe t\u00eb Gjirit, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb Bahrein dhe Katar, por Irani gjithashtu mund t\u00eb sh\u00ebnjestroj\u00eb, n\u00ebse do t\u00eb donte, disa nga infrastruktur\u00ebn kritike t\u00eb \u00e7do kombi q\u00eb e konsideronte bashk\u00ebpun\u00ebtor n\u00eb nj\u00eb sulm amerikan, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb Jordania.<\/p>\n
Sulmi shkat\u00ebrrues me raketa dhe dron\u00eb ndaj objekteve petrokimike t\u00eb Saudi Aramco n\u00eb vitin 2019, i atribuuar nj\u00eb milicie t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur nga Irani n\u00eb Irak, u tregoi saudit\u00ebve se sa t\u00eb preksh\u00ebm ishin ndaj raketave iraniane.<\/p>\n
Fqinj\u00ebt arab\u00eb t\u00eb Iranit n\u00eb Gjirin Persik, t\u00eb gjith\u00eb aleat\u00eb t\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb, jan\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuar tani se \u00e7do veprim ushtarak i SHBA-s\u00eb do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb duke u kthyer mbrapsht atyre. 5. Irani hakmerret duke vendosur mina n\u00eb Gjirin Persik.<\/p>\n
Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb shfaqur prej koh\u00ebsh si nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim potencial p\u00ebr transportin detar global dhe furnizimet me naft\u00eb q\u00eb nga lufta Iran-Irak e viteve 1980-88, kur Irani me t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb minoi korridoret e transportit detar dhe minapastruesit e Marin\u00ebs Mbret\u00ebrore ndihmuan n\u00eb pastrimin e tyre.<\/p>\n
Ngushtica e ngusht\u00eb e Hormuzit midis Iranit dhe Omanit \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb pik\u00eb ky\u00e7e kritike. Rreth 20% e eksporteve bot\u00ebrore t\u00eb Gazit Natyror t\u00eb L\u00ebngsh\u00ebm (LNG) dhe midis 20-25% e naft\u00ebs dhe n\u00ebnprodukteve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs kalojn\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb ngushtic\u00eb \u00e7do vit.<\/p>\n
Irani ka kryer ushtrime p\u00ebr vendosjen e shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb minave detare. N\u00ebse do ta b\u00ebnte k\u00ebt\u00eb, at\u00ebher\u00eb kjo do t\u00eb ndikonte n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pashmangshme n\u00eb tregtin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore dhe \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs. 6. Irani hakmerret, duke fundosur nj\u00eb anije luftarake amerikane.
\nNj\u00eb kapiten i Marin\u00ebs Amerikane n\u00eb bordin e nj\u00eb anijeje luftarake n\u00eb Gjirin Persik m\u00eb tha dikur se nj\u00eb nga k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimet nga Irani p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilin shqet\u00ebsohet m\u00eb shum\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb \u201csulm i turm\u00ebs\u201d.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebtu Irani l\u00ebshon kaq shum\u00eb dron\u00eb me shp\u00ebrthyes t\u00eb lart\u00eb dhe anije siluruese t\u00eb shpejta n\u00eb nj\u00eb ose m\u00eb shum\u00eb objektiva, saq\u00eb edhe mbrojtjet e fuqishme t\u00eb Marin\u00ebs Amerikane nga af\u00ebr nuk jan\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u2019i eliminojn\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha n\u00eb koh\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Marina e IRGC-s\u00eb ka z\u00ebvend\u00ebsuar prej koh\u00ebsh Marin\u00ebn konvencionale iraniane n\u00eb Gjirin Persik, disa prej komandant\u00ebve t\u00eb s\u00eb cil\u00ebs madje u trajnuan n\u00eb Dartmouth gjat\u00eb koh\u00ebs s\u00eb Shahut.<\/p>\n
Ekipet detare t\u00eb Iranit e kan\u00eb p\u00ebrqendruar pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb st\u00ebrvitjes s\u00eb tyre n\u00eb luft\u00ebn jokonvencionale ose \u201casimetrike\u201d, duke k\u00ebrkuar m\u00ebnyra p\u00ebr t\u00eb kap\u00ebrcyer ose anashkaluar avantazhet teknike q\u00eb g\u00ebzon kund\u00ebrshtari i tyre kryesor, Flota e Pest\u00eb e Marin\u00ebs Amerikane.<\/p>\n
Mbytja e nj\u00eb anijeje luftarake amerikane, e shoq\u00ebruar me kapjen e mundshme t\u00eb t\u00eb mbijetuarve midis ekuipazhit t\u00eb saj, do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb posht\u00ebrim i madh p\u00ebr SHBA-n\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrsa ky skenar mendohet i pamundur, shkat\u00ebrruesi miliarda dollar\u00ebsh USS Cole u d\u00ebmtua nga nj\u00eb sulm vet\u00ebvras\u00ebs i Al-Kaed\u00ebs n\u00eb portin e Adenit n\u00eb vitin 2000, duke vrar\u00eb 17 marinar\u00eb amerikan\u00eb.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrpara k\u00ebsaj, n\u00eb vitin 1987, nj\u00eb pilot avioni irakian q\u00eblloi gabimisht dy raketa Exocet drejt nj\u00eb anijeje luftarake amerikane, USS Stark, duke vrar\u00eb 37 marinar\u00eb.
\n7. Regjimi shembet, i z\u00ebvend\u00ebsuar nga kaosi<\/p>\n
Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb rrezik shum\u00eb real dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb nga shqet\u00ebsimet kryesore t\u00eb fqinj\u00ebve si Katari dhe Arabia Saudite.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrve\u00e7 mund\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb nj\u00eb lufte civile, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb ajo q\u00eb p\u00ebrjetuan Siria, Jemeni dhe Libia, ekziston edhe rreziku q\u00eb n\u00eb kaos dhe konfuzion, tensionet etnike t\u00eb mund t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohen n\u00eb konflikt t\u00eb armatosur, nd\u00ebrsa kurd\u00ebt, baluk\u00ebt dhe pakicat e tjera k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb t\u00eb mbrojn\u00eb popullin e tyre mes nj\u00eb vakumi pushteti mbar\u00ebkomb\u00ebtar.<\/p>\n
Pjesa m\u00eb e madhe e Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme do t\u00eb ishte sigurisht e lumtur t\u00eb shihte mb\u00ebshtetjen e Republik\u00ebs Islamike, askush m\u00eb shum\u00eb se Izraeli, i cili tashm\u00eb u ka dh\u00ebn\u00eb goditje t\u00eb r\u00ebnda aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb Iranit n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb rajonin dhe i cili i frik\u00ebsohet nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi ekzistencial nga programi i dyshuar b\u00ebrthamor i Iranit.<\/p>\n
Por askush nuk d\u00ebshiron ta shoh\u00eb kombin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh t\u00eb Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme p\u00ebr nga popullsia, rreth 93 milion\u00eb, t\u00eb zhytet n\u00eb kaos, duke shkaktuar nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb humanitare dhe refugjat\u00ebsh.<\/p>\n
Rreziku m\u00eb i madh tani \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb Presidenti Trump, pasi ka grumbulluar k\u00ebt\u00eb forc\u00eb t\u00eb fuqishme pran\u00eb kufijve t\u00eb Iranit, t\u00eb vendos\u00eb se duhet t\u00eb veproj\u00eb ose do t\u00eb humbas\u00eb reputacionin, dhe nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb filloj\u00eb pa nj\u00eb p\u00ebrfundim t\u00eb qart\u00eb dhe me pasoja t\u00eb paparashikueshme dhe potencialisht d\u00ebmtuese.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SHBA-t\u00eb duket se jan\u00eb gati ta sulmojn\u00eb Iranin brenda pak dit\u00ebsh, shkruan sot BBC. Nd\u00ebrsa objektivat e mundsh\u00ebm jan\u00eb kryesisht t\u00eb parashikuesh\u00ebm, rezultati nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb. Pra, n\u00ebse nuk mund t\u00eb arrihet nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje e minut\u00ebs s\u00eb fundit me Teheranin dhe Presidenti Donald Trump vendos t\u2019u urdh\u00ebroj\u00eb forcave amerikane t\u00eb sulmojn\u00eb, at\u00ebher\u00eb cilat jan\u00eb rezultatet e […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-67130","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67130","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67130"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67130\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67130"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67130"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67130"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}