A mund ta sulmoj\u00eb Vladimir Putin NATO-n? Rusia po rrit forcat ushtarake duke shkaktuar frik\u00eb te fqinj\u00ebt<\/p>\n
The Economist<\/p>\n
Egert Belitsev, kreu i forc\u00ebs kufitare t\u00eb Estonis\u00eb, e quan at\u00eb skaji i bot\u00ebs s\u00eb lir\u00eb. Midis mureve t\u00eb jashtme t\u00eb k\u00ebshtjell\u00ebs Hermann n\u00eb qytetin estonez Narva, dhe mureve t\u00eb kalas\u00eb Ivangorod n\u00eb Rusi, ndodhet nj\u00eb ur\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Posht\u00eb saj, shtrihet lumi Narva, i fryr\u00eb nga shkrirja e d\u00ebbor\u00ebs. N\u00eb an\u00ebn ruse p\u00ebrball\u00eb Estonis\u00eb jan\u00eb ngritur dy ekrane gjigante q\u00eb kishin transmetuar parad\u00ebn e 9 majit n\u00eb Sheshin e Kuq, p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrkujtuar fitoren n\u00eb Luft\u00ebn e Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore.<\/p>\n
Tingujt e daulleve dhe imazhet e ushtar\u00ebve rus\u00eb mund t\u00eb shkaktojn\u00eb ankth n\u00eb Estoni, e cila u aneksua n\u00eb vitin 1940 nga Stalini dhe u pushtua nga Bashkimi Sovjetik nga viti 1944 deri n\u00eb 1991.<\/p>\n
Provokimet e rus\u00ebve n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb zon\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb vazhdueshme. Rusia ka bllokuar sinjalet GPS n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb rajonin duke nd\u00ebrprer\u00eb trafikun ajror dhe operacionet e k\u00ebrkim-shp\u00ebtimit.<\/p>\n
Vitin e kaluar, rojet kufitare ruse hoq\u00ebn vozat n\u00eb lumin Narva, q\u00eb sh\u00ebnjonin ndarjen e kufirit. Avion\u00ebt mbik\u00ebqyr\u00ebs duken rregullisht n\u00eb qiell. Edhe m\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuese jan\u00eb pamjet satelitore.<\/p>\n
Pavar\u00ebsisht se bazat ushtarake ruse pran\u00eb kufijve me Estonin\u00eb dhe Finland\u00ebn jan\u00eb pothuajse bosh, sepse trupat dhe pajisjet jan\u00eb d\u00ebrguar n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, koh\u00ebt e fundit ato po ngrihen s\u00ebrish.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb teori, Rusia ka plane t\u00eb m\u00ebdha. Ajo synon t\u00eb zgjeroj\u00eb forcat e armatosura n\u00eb 1.5 milion\u00eb trupa aktive, nga rreth 1.3 milion\u00eb n\u00eb shtator. N\u00eb vitin 2023, njoftoi krijimin e nj\u00eb formacioni t\u00eb ri ushtarak, Korpusin e 44-t, n\u00eb qytetin Karelia, p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb kufirit me Finland\u00ebn. Nj\u00ebsit\u00eb e para t\u00eb Korpusit t\u00eb 44-t u shkat\u00ebrruan n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb vitin e kaluar.<\/p>\n
Rusia po zgjeron edhe disa brigada n\u00eb divizione m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb do t\u00eb nevojiten vite. Por n\u00ebse ka sukses, vendi do t\u00eb arrij\u00eb t\u00eb rris\u00eb trupat ushtarake, pajisjet dhe arm\u00ebt n\u00eb frontin per\u00ebndimor, me rreth 30-50%.<\/p>\n
\u201cGjat\u00eb vitit 2024, \u2013 vuri n\u00eb dukje sh\u00ebrbimi i inteligjenc\u00ebs daneze, riarmatimi i Rusis\u00eb ndryshoi n\u00eb natyr\u00eb \u2013 duke kaluar nga rind\u00ebrtimi, drejt nj\u00eb forcimi ushtarak t\u00eb theksuar\u201d. Q\u00ebllimi i tyre \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje \u201ct\u00eb luftojn\u00eb n\u00eb kushte t\u00eb barabarta me forcat e NATO-s\u201d.<\/p>\n
Disa argumentojn\u00eb se Rusia do t\u00eb sulmoj\u00eb her\u00ebt a von\u00eb. \u201cLufta \u00ebsht\u00eb thjesht \u00e7\u00ebshtje kohe\u201d, tha Kaja Kallas vitin e kaluar, kur ishte kryeministre e Estonis\u00eb (tani ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb shefja e politik\u00ebs s\u00eb jashtme t\u00eb BE-s\u00eb).<\/p>\n
N\u00eb mars, presidenti francez Emmanuel Macron, vuri n\u00eb dukje se Rusia po riarmatosej n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikshme. \u201cSa i besuesh\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb pretendimi\u201d, pyeti ai, \u201cse Rusia e sotme do t\u00eb ndalet n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb?\u201d<\/p>\n
T\u00eb tjer\u00eb jan\u00eb skeptik\u00eb se ambiciet ruse shtrihen p\u00ebrtej lumit Dnieper. Kryeministri spanjoll Pedro S\u00e1nchez u tall me iden\u00eb e nj\u00eb lufte t\u00eb madhe:<\/p>\n
\u201cNuk ekziston k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi q\u00eb Rusia t\u2019i sjell\u00eb trupat n\u00eb Pireneje\u201d. Steve Witkoff, i d\u00ebrguari i Donald Trump p\u00ebr bisedimet e paqes me Rusin\u00eb, kur u pyet n\u00ebse Rusia kishte nd\u00ebr mend t\u00eb \u201cmarshonte n\u00ebp\u00ebr Europ\u00eb\u201d, u p\u00ebrgjigj thjesht: \u201c100% jo\u201d.<\/p>\n
Analist\u00ebt e inteligjenc\u00ebs i p\u00ebrcaktojn\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimet duke u mb\u00ebshtetur n\u00eb dy elemente: q\u00ebllimi dhe aft\u00ebsia. Tani p\u00ebr tani, asnj\u00eb sh\u00ebrbim i inteligjenc\u00ebs n\u00eb bot\u00eb nuk ka prova se Rusia po planifikon t\u00eb sulmoj\u00eb NATO-n.<\/p>\n
Por q\u00ebllimet mund t\u00eb ndryshojn\u00eb. N\u00eb fjalimet publike, Vladimir Putin e ka justifikuar pushtimin e Ukrain\u00ebs n\u00eb disa m\u00ebnyra: nevoj\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbrojtur rusishtfol\u00ebsit n\u00eb Donbas; \u201c\u00e7militarizimin\u201d dhe \u201cdenazifikimin\u201d e Ukrain\u00ebs; dhe nevoj\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbajtur larg NATO-n gjoja armiq\u00ebsor.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb shkurt 2022, n\u00eb prag t\u00eb luft\u00ebs, Putini faj\u00ebsoi Leninin se kishte cop\u00ebtuar perandorin\u00eb ruse, duke v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb dyshim, jo vet\u00ebm sovranitetin e shteteve ish-sovjetike si Ukraina, por edhe t\u00eb atyre si Finlanda, q\u00eb dikur kan\u00eb qen\u00eb pjes\u00eb e perandoris\u00eb ruse.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, p\u00ebr Putinin, arsyeja e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb e luft\u00ebs mund t\u00eb mos ket\u00eb lidhje me k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimet e jashtme, por me p\u00ebrpjekjet p\u00ebr t\u00eb legjitimuar pushtetin.<\/p>\n
Gjat\u00eb 25 viteve n\u00eb pushtet, ai ka kryer pes\u00eb luft\u00ebra. \u00c7donj\u00ebra prej tyre ka filluar n\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb kur popullariteti i tij ka filluar t\u00eb bjer\u00eb dhe ka p\u00ebrfunduar me forcimin e autoritetit t\u00eb presidentit.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb fillim t\u00eb luft\u00ebs, pak rus\u00eb u besonin pretendimeve t\u00eb Kremlinit se Rusia po k\u00ebrc\u00ebnohej nga Per\u00ebndimi.<\/p>\n
Tani kjo ide \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb m\u00eb e pranuar. Nj\u00eb arsye \u00ebsht\u00eb sepse propaganda e Putinit u p\u00ebrforcua nga disa akuza per\u00ebndimore q\u00eb faj\u00ebsonin t\u00eb gjith\u00eb rus\u00ebt p\u00ebr luft\u00ebn. Kjo i ka armiq\u00ebsuar edhe ata rus\u00eb q\u00eb n\u00eb fillim mb\u00ebshtesnin Ukrain\u00ebn dhe Per\u00ebndimin.<\/p>\n
Mbledhja rreth flamurit<\/p>\n
Edhe pse shumica e rus\u00ebve duan q\u00eb lufta t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundoj\u00eb, atyre u p\u00eblqen fakti se lufta po rrit ndikimin nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar t\u00eb vendit, sipas nj\u00eb sondazhi t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt t\u00eb kryer nga K\u00ebshilli i \u00c7ikagos p\u00ebr \u00c7\u00ebshtjet Globale dhe Qendra Levada n\u00eb Mosk\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn, 60% e rus\u00ebve shihnin si p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsi nivelin e jetes\u00ebs n\u00eb vend t\u00eb statusit t\u00eb vendit si fuqi e madhe. Sot, 55% e rus\u00ebve shohin si p\u00ebrpar\u00ebsi fuqin\u00eb e vendit mbi nivelin e jetes\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Por, pas tre vitesh luft\u00eb, ekonomia e Rusis\u00eb po rr\u00ebshqet drejt stanjacionit dhe inflacioni mbetet mbi 10% pavar\u00ebsisht se banka qendrore e mbajti norm\u00ebn baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit n\u00eb 21%.<\/p>\n
Ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb aft\u00ebsia ajo q\u00eb formon q\u00ebllimet. N\u00eb nj\u00eb intervist\u00eb t\u00eb fundit, Putini tha se lufta n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb kulmi i nj\u00eb ballafaqimi t\u00eb gjat\u00eb me Per\u00ebndimin.<\/p>\n
Pasi rr\u00ebmbeu Krimen\u00eb nga Ukraina n\u00eb vitin 2014, ai u ndal, jo sepse i mungonte vullneti p\u00ebr t\u00eb rr\u00ebmbyer m\u00eb shum\u00eb territor, por sepse i mungonin mjetet.<\/p>\n
\u201cN\u00eb vitin 2014, vendi nuk ishte i p\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr nj\u00eb p\u00ebrballje kok\u00eb m\u00eb kok\u00eb me t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Per\u00ebndimin\u201d.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, d\u00ebshira e Putinit p\u00ebr luft\u00eb dhe aft\u00ebsia e tij p\u00ebr ta b\u00ebr\u00eb at\u00eb jan\u00eb dy gj\u00ebra krejt t\u00eb ndryshme.<\/p>\n
Trupat ruse n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb kan\u00eb kaluar n\u00ebnt\u00eb muaj t\u00eb pasuksessh\u00ebm duke sulmuar Pokrovskin, nj\u00eb qytet q\u00eb para lufte kishte 70,000 banor\u00eb. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb zon\u00eb, ushtria ruse ka p\u00ebsuar \u00e7do dit\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 1,000 t\u00eb vdekur dhe t\u00eb plagosur.<\/p>\n
Ajo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e aft\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb manovra t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlikuara ushtarake dhe po p\u00ebson gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb humbje. Forca e saj ajrore rrall\u00ebher\u00eb hyn n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb duke parap\u00eblqyer t\u00eb hedh\u00eb bomba nga nj\u00eb larg\u00ebsi e sigurt.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr sa koh\u00eb q\u00eb lufta n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb vazhdon, Rusia nuk do t\u00eb ket\u00eb forca tok\u00ebsore rezerv\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb qen\u00eb nj\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnim serioz p\u00ebr NATO-n.<\/p>\n
Por edhe n\u00ebse n\u00ebnshkruhet nj\u00eb arm\u00ebpushim, Rusia mund ta ket\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb zhvendos\u00eb nj\u00eb num\u00ebr t\u00eb madh trupash, sepse kjo mund t\u2019i lejoj\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs t\u00eb rimarr\u00eb territorin e humbur, v\u00ebren analisti Konrad Muzyka.<\/p>\n
Prandaj, Rusis\u00eb do t\u2019i duhej t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtonte forca t\u00eb reja ushtarake. Agjencit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore t\u00eb inteligjenc\u00ebs kan\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar se sa koh\u00eb mund t\u00eb zgjas\u00eb ky proces.<\/p>\n
Parashikimet e tyre ndryshojn\u00eb. Amerika mendon se Rusia mund t\u00eb rind\u00ebrtoj\u00eb ushtrin\u00eb \u201cgjat\u00eb dekad\u00ebs s\u00eb ardhshme\u201d. Inteligjenca norvegjeze llogarit pes\u00eb deri n\u00eb dhjet\u00eb vjet.<\/p>\n
Ukraina parashikon pes\u00eb deri n\u00eb shtat\u00eb vjet, nd\u00ebrsa Gjermania pes\u00eb deri n\u00eb tet\u00eb. Sh\u00ebrbimet e inteligjenc\u00ebs estoneze parashikojn\u00eb nj\u00eb afat prej tre deri n\u00eb pes\u00eb vjet\u00ebsh derisa Rusia t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtoj\u00eb formacione t\u00eb reja ushtarake, n\u00eb var\u00ebsi t\u00eb rrjedh\u00ebs s\u00eb luft\u00ebs, ekonomis\u00eb ruse dhe faktit n\u00ebse sanksionet do t\u00eb mbeten n\u00eb fuqi.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebto afate varen nga nj\u00eb s\u00ebr\u00eb faktor\u00ebsh. Rusia po prodhon municione me shpejt\u00ebsi t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme, m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 1400 raketa balistike Iskander dhe 500 raketa lundrimi Kh-101 n\u00eb vit, sipas vler\u00ebsimeve t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs dhe nj\u00eb raporti t\u00eb fundit nga Instituti Mbret\u00ebror i Sh\u00ebrbimeve t\u00eb Bashkuara (RUSI), nj\u00eb institut k\u00ebrkimor n\u00eb Lond\u00ebr.<\/p>\n
Por n\u00eb fusha t\u00eb tjera, normat e prodhimit jan\u00eb t\u00eb ngadalta. Vet\u00ebm 10-15% e 1500-2000 tankeve dhe 3000 mjeteve t\u00eb tjera luftarake t\u00eb blinduara q\u00eb prodhohen \u00e7do vit jan\u00eb t\u00eb reja, v\u00ebren instituti RUSI.<\/p>\n
Pjesa tjet\u00ebr jan\u00eb thjesht rip\u00ebrt\u00ebritje t\u00eb rezervave t\u00eb vjetra sovjetike. K\u00ebto rezerva mund t\u00eb shterojn\u00eb deri n\u00eb vitin 2026 n\u00ebse normat e humbjeve vazhdojn\u00eb si tani, thot\u00eb Dara Massicot nga firma Carnegie Endowment. Prodhimi i armaturave mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb arritur kulmin k\u00ebt\u00eb vit, thot\u00eb zoti Muzyka.<\/p>\n
Fuqia pun\u00ebtore \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu nj\u00eb problem serioz. Tani p\u00ebr tani, Rusia po rekruton rreth 30,000 burra n\u00eb muaj, por n\u00eb planin afatgjat\u00eb, ajo do t\u00eb p\u00ebrballet me sfid\u00ebn e nj\u00eb popullsie n\u00eb r\u00ebnie dhe n\u00eb plakje.<\/p>\n
M\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme \u00ebsht\u00eb cil\u00ebsia e k\u00ebtyre forcave. \u201cMarrja e materialit \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e leht\u00eb se trajnimi i aft\u00ebsive p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur mjetet ushtarake\u201d, thot\u00eb Michael Kofman nga firma Carnegie Endowment.<\/p>\n
Ai shton se Forcat e Armatosura t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb jan\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuar shum\u00eb n\u00eb disa fusha, si zbulimi dhe goditja e sh\u00ebnjestrave duke p\u00ebrdorur dron\u00eb, por aft\u00ebsia e tyre p\u00ebr ta rritur k\u00ebt\u00eb aft\u00ebsi, \u00ebsht\u00eb e kufizuar, sepse i mungojn\u00eb trupat, oficer\u00ebt dhe stafi.<\/p>\n
Humbjet e luft\u00ebs<\/p>\n
Forcat ruse jan\u00eb d\u00ebmtuar nga humbjet e r\u00ebnda. Zyrtar\u00ebt per\u00ebndimor\u00eb vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb se q\u00eb nga fundi i vitit 2024, spitalet ushtarake ruse kan\u00eb funksionuar n\u00eb kapacitet t\u00eb plot\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Gjenerali Chris Cavoli, komandanti i lart\u00eb i NATO-s p\u00ebr Europ\u00ebn, tha n\u00eb prill se Rusia kishte p\u00ebsuar rreth 790,000 viktima.<\/p>\n
Shum\u00eb nga t\u00eb vrar\u00ebt ose t\u00eb plagosurit jan\u00eb oficer\u00eb t\u00eb vegj\u00ebl q\u00eb nevojiten p\u00ebr t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequr nj\u00ebsit\u00eb drejt nj\u00eb force m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb ushtarake.<\/p>\n
Duke gjykuar nga njoftimet publike t\u00eb varrimeve, midis viteve 2022 dhe 2024, Rusia humbi aq toger\u00eb sa do t\u00eb nevojiteshin p\u00ebr t\u00eb drejtuar gjithsej dhjet\u00eb divizione ose brigada, shkruan zonja Massicot.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb studim i fundit nga instituti amerikan RAND Corporation ka parashikuar disa m\u00ebnyra se si Rusia mund t\u00eb rind\u00ebrtoj\u00eb Forcat e Armatosura. P\u00ebrpara pushtimit t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs, udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit rus\u00eb u p\u00ebrpoq\u00ebn p\u00ebr shum\u00eb vite q\u00eb t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtonin nj\u00eb forc\u00eb ushtarake m\u00eb profesionale q\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetej n\u00eb teknologji dhe shkatht\u00ebsi.<\/p>\n
Ky model tani \u00ebsht\u00eb braktisur. Rusia po i rikthehet nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyre m\u00eb t\u00eb vjet\u00ebr dhe t\u00eb ashp\u00ebr lufte: \u201cReformat nuk po p\u00ebrqendrohen m\u00eb n\u00eb risi dhe teknologji, por n\u00eb fuqin\u00eb e mas\u00ebs dhe t\u00eb zjarrit\u201d.<\/p>\n
Aft\u00ebsia e Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb ngritur ushtrin\u00eb e saj kufizohet edhe nga gjendja e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb ekonomike. Sipas shifrave zyrtare, vitin e kaluar, vendi shpenzoi 6.7% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb p\u00ebr mbrojtjen dhe k\u00ebt\u00eb vit shpenzimet pritet t\u00eb rriten.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, jo t\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto para do t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoren p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb pajisje t\u00eb reja, sepse n\u00eb shpenzime duhen p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb edhe pagesat p\u00ebr kurimin e ushtar\u00ebve t\u00eb plagosur dhe familjet e t\u00eb vrar\u00ebve, si dhe pagat e m\u00ebdha p\u00ebr t\u00eb t\u00ebrhequr njer\u00ebzit q\u00eb t\u00eb regjistrohen si ushtar\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Goditja e luft\u00ebs<\/p>\n
K\u00ebtu mb\u00ebshtetet argumenti se k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimi nga Rusia, edhe pse i mir\u00ebfillt\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i p\u00ebrballuesh\u00ebm sesa mendohet.<\/p>\n
Formacionet e reja ushtarake, si Korpusi i 44-t\u00eb, q\u00eb ishte menduar t\u00eb vendosej n\u00eb kufirin finlandez, jan\u00eb thjesht \u201cshfaqje frik\u00ebsimi\u201d, thot\u00eb John Foreman, i cili ka sh\u00ebrbyer si atashe i Britanis\u00eb n\u00eb Kiev dhe Mosk\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Ai v\u00ebren se Rusia pretendonte se kishte 1 milion njer\u00ebz t\u00eb armatosur, n\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb kur shifra e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb ishte 880,000.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, an\u00ebtar\u00ebsimi i Suedis\u00eb dhe Finland\u00ebs n\u00eb NATO ka p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsuar shum\u00eb pozicionin e Rusis\u00eb n\u00eb veri t\u00eb NATO-s.<\/p>\n
Ideja se Rusia mund t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqet nga Ukraina, t\u00eb riorganizoj\u00eb ushtrin\u00eb e saj dhe t\u00eb \u201cmarshoj\u00eb n\u00eb Varshav\u00eb\u201d, \u00ebsht\u00eb \u201cnj\u00eb fantazi e shfrenuar\u201d, thot\u00eb zoti Foreman. Ai nuk mendon se Rusia ka ndonj\u00eb q\u00ebllim p\u00ebr t\u00eb sulmuar.<\/p>\n
Disa analist\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb thon\u00eb se aft\u00ebsia e Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb kryer luft\u00eb, varet shum\u00eb nga lloji i luft\u00ebs q\u00eb zhvillohet. \u201cN\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb afatmesme nuk ka gjasa q\u00eb Rusia t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb aft\u00ebsit\u00eb e nevojshme p\u00ebr nj\u00eb luft\u00eb n\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb kund\u00ebr NATO-s\u201d, pranon agjencia e inteligjenc\u00ebs mbrojt\u00ebse e Lituanis\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\u201cMegjithat\u00eb, Rusia mund t\u00eb krijoj\u00eb aft\u00ebsi ushtarake t\u00eb mjaftueshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb nisur nj\u00eb aksion t\u00eb kufizuar ushtarak kund\u00ebr nj\u00eb ose disa shteteve t\u00eb NATO-s\u201d.<\/p>\n
Inteligjenca daneze jep nj\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrim t\u00eb ngjash\u00ebm: do t\u00eb duheshin pes\u00eb vjet q\u00eb Rusia t\u00eb ishte gati p\u00ebr nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb madhe (q\u00eb nuk p\u00ebrfshin Amerik\u00ebn).<\/p>\n
Por do t\u00eb duheshin vet\u00ebm dy vjet p\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrgatitur p\u00ebr nj\u00eb \u201cluft\u00eb rajonale\u201d kund\u00ebr disa shteteve n\u00eb zon\u00ebn e Detit Baltik dhe gjasht\u00eb muaj p\u00ebr t\u00eb qen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb kryej\u00eb nj\u00eb \u201cluft\u00eb lokale\u201d kund\u00ebr nj\u00eb shteti fqinj.<\/p>\n
Rusia mund t\u00eb zhvendos\u00eb 50,000 trupa nga Ukraina n\u00eb rrethin e saj ushtarak n\u00eb Leningrad dhe kjo nuk do t\u00eb ndikonte shum\u00eb n\u00eb luft\u00ebn e tanishme, argumenton Hanno Pevkur, ministri i Mbrojtjes i Estonis\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\u201cPor zhvendosja do t\u00eb forconte ndjesh\u00ebm pranin\u00eb ushtarake ruse n\u00eb kufi me Estonin\u00eb\u201d, paralajm\u00ebron ai. \u201cP\u00ebr t\u00eb kryer nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb vog\u00ebl lokale nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e nevojshme q\u00eb ata t\u00eb ken\u00eb n\u00eb dispozicion t\u00eb gjitha trupat ushtarake q\u00eb ndodhen n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb\u201d.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebta skenar\u00eb kan\u00eb disa mang\u00ebsi. Danez\u00ebt mendojn\u00eb se NATO nuk do t\u00eb riarmatoset dot \u201cme t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin rit\u00ebm\u201d.<\/p>\n
Por kjo nuk duket m\u00eb aq e sigurt, n\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb kur aleat\u00ebt europian\u00eb t\u00eb NATO-s, t\u00eb trembur nga k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimet e Trump, po derdhin para me tepri n\u00eb Forcat e Armatosura.<\/p>\n
Nuk mund t\u00eb thuhet me siguri as n\u00ebse Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb kryej\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb lokale.<\/p>\n
NATO ka vendosur nj\u00eb varg batalionesh n\u00eb tet\u00eb shtete, nga Estonia deri n\u00eb Bullgari, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb trupa ushtarake nga 28 shtete. Trupat amerikane jan\u00eb t\u00eb pranishme n\u00eb t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn tre prej tyre.<\/p>\n
NATO po ndjek nga af\u00ebr st\u00ebrvitjet ruse, duke u siguruar q\u00eb trupat e aleanc\u00ebs t\u00eb p\u00ebrputhen me rritjen e trupave ruse pran\u00eb kufirit. St\u00ebrvitja \u201cZapad\u201d n\u00eb Rusi dhe Bjellorusi n\u00eb fund t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, do t\u00eb analizohet me v\u00ebmendje.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr t\u00eb kryer nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb kufizuar, Rusia duhej t\u00eb hamend\u00ebsonte se k\u00ebto forca t\u00eb NATO-s do t\u00eb t\u00ebrhiqeshin ose se Amerika nuk do t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhynte (nj\u00eb hamend\u00ebsim q\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet m\u00eb i besuesh\u00ebm n\u00eb rast se Amerika do t\u00eb shp\u00ebrqendrohej nga nj\u00eb problem gjetiu, p\u00ebr shembull nga nj\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekje kineze p\u00ebr t\u00eb pushtuar Tajvanin).<\/p>\n
Kjo sigurisht q\u00eb do t\u00eb rriste shanset.<\/p>\n
Sipas llogaritjeve tona, edhe duke p\u00ebrshtatur pagat dhe kostot m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta t\u00eb Rusis\u00eb dhe buxhetin e saj t\u00eb rritur ushtarak, dalim n\u00eb p\u00ebrfundimin se shpenzimet e Putinit p\u00ebr mbrojtje nuk i arrijn\u00eb ato t\u00eb shteteve an\u00ebtare europiane t\u00eb NATO-s. Sidoqoft\u00eb, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e shpenzimeve t\u00eb Europ\u00ebs jan\u00eb shp\u00ebrdoruar.<\/p>\n
M\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishmja, edhe pse n\u00eb teori, forcat europiane jan\u00eb t\u00eb armatosura mjaft mir\u00eb, n\u00eb praktik\u00eb, ato do ta kishin t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb sh\u00ebnjestronin si\u00e7 duhet arm\u00ebt me rreze t\u00eb gjat\u00eb, t\u00eb organizonin operacione ajrore t\u00eb nd\u00ebrlikuara, t\u00eb komandonin formacione t\u00eb m\u00ebdha ushtarake ose t\u00eb mposhtin mbrojtjen ajrore ruse pa ndihm\u00ebn amerikane.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr shembull, Polonia ka shum\u00eb raketahedh\u00ebse me rreze t\u00eb gjat\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Por nuk ka mjetet p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjetur sh\u00ebnjestra p\u00ebr to shum\u00eb larg vij\u00ebs s\u00eb frontit. Tani p\u00ebr tani, shumica e vendeve europiane po operojn\u00eb duke hamend\u00ebsuar se Amerika, edhe n\u00ebn drejtimin e Trump, do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u2019i mb\u00ebshtes\u00eb nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb Europa mbush boshll\u00ebqet me kalimin e koh\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Duke k\u00ebrkuar nj\u00eb pik\u00eb t\u00eb dob\u00ebt<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse ky hamend\u00ebsim q\u00ebndron dhe n\u00ebse Europa p\u00ebrshpejton riarmatosjen, Rusia do ta kishte pothuajse t\u00eb pamundur t\u00eb niste nj\u00eb akt lufte q\u00eb do t\u00eb shkaktonte zbatimin e Nenit 5 t\u00eb NATO-s p\u00ebr mbrojtjen e nd\u00ebrsjell\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Por d\u00ebshira ruse p\u00ebr rrezik mund t\u00eb rritet, sidomos duke pasur parasysh se Trump mund t\u00eb anashkaloj\u00eb shkeljet m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla.<\/p>\n
\u201cN\u00eb vitet e ardhshme, Rusia do t\u00eb b\u00ebhet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb e gatshme t\u00eb p\u00ebrdor\u00eb forc\u00ebn ushtarake p\u00ebr t\u00eb ushtruar trysni ose p\u00ebr t\u00eb sfiduar NATO-n n\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00ebsi, ose ndonj\u00eb shtet t\u00eb NATO-s\u201d, paralajm\u00ebron sh\u00ebrbimi i inteligjenc\u00ebs daneze.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebto mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb incidente relativisht t\u00eb vogla, si\u00e7 ishte vendimi i pamatur rus p\u00ebr t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyr\u00eb n\u00eb pun\u00ebn e avion\u00ebve v\u00ebzhgues amerikan\u00eb, britanik\u00eb dhe francez\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Por Rusia mund t\u00eb tregohet shum\u00eb m\u00eb e guximshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb sulmuar ato zona q\u00eb i sheh si periferike, si ishulli norvegjez Svalbard, nj\u00eb territor p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilin an\u00ebtar\u00ebt e NATO-s mund ta ken\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb pajtohen p\u00ebr t\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje n\u00eb koh\u00eb. Shtetet jo an\u00ebtare t\u00eb NATO-s do t\u00eb ishin gjithashtu nj\u00eb pre m\u00eb e leht\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\u201cN\u00ebse trupat ruse do t\u00eb zhvendoseshin nga Transnistria n\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb Moldavis\u00eb, \u2013 thot\u00eb nj\u00eb burim i inteligjenc\u00ebs, \u2013 mendoj se kjo do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb urgjenc\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrballur dhe do t\u00eb p\u00ebr\u00e7ante NATO-n\u201d.<\/p>\n
Parashikimi i luft\u00ebrave t\u00eb ardhshme \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithmon\u00eb i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb. Gjat\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Ftoht\u00eb, Amerika dhe Bashkimi Sovjetik i keqkuptuan q\u00ebllimet dhe aft\u00ebsit\u00eb e nj\u00ebri-tjetrit.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb raportin e CIA-s \u201cV\u00ebzhgimi i ariut\u201d, t\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb publik n\u00eb vitin 1991, ish-analisti i CIA-s, Raymond Garthoff, shkroi se n\u00eb vitet 1950 dhe 1960, dhe p\u00ebrs\u00ebri n\u00eb vitet 1970 dhe 1980, kishte nj\u00eb prirje \u201cp\u00ebr t\u2019i fryr\u00eb synimet e Rusis\u00eb p\u00ebr sulm\u201d.<\/p>\n
Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, edhe sovjetik\u00ebt \u201ce fryn\u00eb armiq\u00ebsin\u00eb dhe aft\u00ebsin\u00eb e Per\u00ebndimit, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb planifikimin p\u00ebr fillimin e luft\u00ebs\u201d.<\/p>\n
Por edhe n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsimi i rreziqeve \u00ebsht\u00eb i rreziksh\u00ebm. Shanset p\u00ebr nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb madhe n\u00eb kufi me Suedin\u00eb mbeten t\u00eb ul\u00ebta, thot\u00eb agjencia suedeze e spiunazhit.<\/p>\n
Por paralajm\u00ebron se nj\u00eb \u201csulm i kufizuar i armatosur\u201d kund\u00ebr nj\u00eb shteti baltik ose anijeve t\u00eb NATO-s \u00ebsht\u00eb plot\u00ebsisht i mundur.<\/p>\n
\u201cNj\u00eb veprim i till\u00eb mund t\u00eb duket i pakuptimt\u00eb nga pik\u00ebpamja suedeze\u201d, shpjegojn\u00eb spiun\u00ebt, \u201cpor udh\u00ebheqja ruse merr vendime sipas logjik\u00ebs s\u00eb saj krejt t\u00eb ndryshme\u201d.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrktheu: Lira Mu\u00e7a<\/p>\n
The post V\u00ebzhgimi i ariut \u2013 A mund ta sulmoj\u00eb Vladimir Putin, NATO-n?<\/a> appeared first on www.lexo.al<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" A mund ta sulmoj\u00eb Vladimir Putin NATO-n? Rusia po rrit forcat ushtarake duke shkaktuar frik\u00eb te fqinj\u00ebt The Economist Egert Belitsev, kreu i forc\u00ebs kufitare t\u00eb Estonis\u00eb, e quan at\u00eb skaji i bot\u00ebs s\u00eb lir\u00eb. Midis mureve t\u00eb jashtme t\u00eb k\u00ebshtjell\u00ebs Hermann n\u00eb qytetin estonez Narva, dhe mureve t\u00eb kalas\u00eb Ivangorod n\u00eb Rusi, ndodhet nj\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23839","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23839"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23839\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23839"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23839"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23839"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}