{"id":23587,"date":"2025-05-29T19:28:42","date_gmt":"2025-05-29T19:28:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/2025\/05\/29\/analiza-e-birn-miliardat-qe-mungojne-te-rritja-ekonomike-e-shqiperise\/"},"modified":"2025-05-29T19:28:42","modified_gmt":"2025-05-29T19:28:42","slug":"analiza-e-birn-miliardat-qe-mungojne-te-rritja-ekonomike-e-shqiperise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/2025\/05\/29\/analiza-e-birn-miliardat-qe-mungojne-te-rritja-ekonomike-e-shqiperise\/","title":{"rendered":"Analiza e BIRN\/ Miliardat q\u00eb mungojn\u00eb te rritja ekonomike e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nj\u00eb krahasim i ecuris\u00eb aktuale t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb 25 viteve t\u00eb fundit me potencialin e rritjes ekonomike t\u00eb vendit, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar nga Fondi Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, tregon se n\u00eb nj\u00eb vit t\u00eb zakonsh\u00ebm, Prodhimi i Brendsh\u00ebm Bruto i vendit \u00ebsht\u00eb 7.8 miliard\u00eb euro m\u00eb pak nga sa duhej t\u00eb ishte, pasoj\u00eb e performanc\u00ebs s\u00eb keqe n\u00eb qeverisjen e vendit.<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Nga Gjergj Erebara, BIRN<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Ekonomia komb\u00ebtare e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb ka performuar vazhdimisht n\u00ebn potencialin e rritjes t\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar nga Fondi Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, duke akumuluar p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb viteve nj\u00eb hendek prej miliarda eurosh mes asaj q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb dhe asaj q\u00eb duhej t\u00eb ishte. T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat statistikore t\u00eb Fondit Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar mbi ecurin\u00eb faktike dhe llogaritjet teorike se sa do t\u00eb ishte ekonomia shqiptare n\u00ebse ajo do t\u00eb rritej me nj\u00eb rit\u00ebm t\u00eb barabart\u00eb me potencialin tregojn\u00eb se n\u00eb vitin 2025, ekonomia shqiptare \u00ebsht\u00eb af\u00ebrsisht 784 miliard\u00eb lek\u00eb ose 7.84 miliard\u00eb euro m\u00eb e vog\u00ebl nga sa do t\u00eb duhej t\u00eb ishte. Kjo shum\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e barabart\u00eb me 37% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb aktuale dhe gjithashtu, m\u00eb e lart\u00eb se sa t\u00eb gjitha t\u00eb ardhurat buxhetore vjetore.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rritje n\u00ebn potencial<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

\nEkspert\u00ebt e ekonomiksit t\u00eb zhvillimit vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb potencialin e rritjes s\u00eb nj\u00eb vendi duke marr\u00eb parasysh faktor\u00eb t\u00eb shumt\u00eb si gjendja aktuale ekonomike (sa m\u00eb e varf\u00ebr t\u00eb jet\u00eb ekonomia, aq m\u00eb shum\u00eb potencial p\u00ebr rritje ka), afrim\u00ebsin\u00eb me tregjet, nivelin e hapjes ekonomike e t\u00eb tjera. P\u00ebrgjat\u00eb dy dekadave t\u00eb para pas r\u00ebnies s\u00eb komunizmit, potenciali i rritjes ekonomike t\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb vler\u00ebsohej n\u00eb 7% n\u00eb vit nd\u00ebrsa pas Kriz\u00ebs Financiare Bot\u00ebrore t\u00eb vitit 2008, vler\u00ebsimi i rritjes potenciale t\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb 4.5% n\u00eb vit. Kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb q\u00eb, n\u00eb rast se menaxhohet si\u00e7 duhet dhe reformat kryhen si\u00e7 rekomandohet nga ekspert\u00ebt, rritja mesatare afatgjat\u00eb e ekonomis\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb 4.5% n\u00eb vit. N\u00eb rast se rritja \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e lart\u00eb se sa kaq, at\u00ebher\u00eb autoritetet duhet t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyjn\u00eb p\u00ebr ta ftohur at\u00eb, sepse nj\u00eb rritje mbi potencial konsiderohet e paq\u00ebndrueshme. N\u00eb rast se rritja \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e ngadalt\u00eb se kaq, ekonomia konsiderohet se ka nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr reforma politike n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb rikthehet te performanca e vet.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e Fondit Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar tregojn\u00eb se, q\u00eb nga viti 2000, Shqip\u00ebria ka pasur rritje ekonomike mbi potencial n\u00eb vet\u00ebm 4 vite dhe ka n\u00ebnperformuar p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha viteve t\u00eb tjera.<\/span><\/p>\n\n

Kriza t\u00eb nj\u00ebpasnj\u00ebshme dhe investime jorentab\u00ebl<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Grafiku m\u00eb sip\u00ebr, i cili paraqet ndryshimin vjetor t\u00eb Prodhimit t\u00eb Brendsh\u00ebm Bruto me \u00e7mime konstante, (vija me ngjyr\u00eb blu) dhe potencialin e rritjes, (vija me ngjyr\u00eb t\u00eb kuqe) bart n\u00eb vetvete t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat p\u00ebr dy dekada e gjysm\u00eb krizash t\u00eb nj\u00ebpasnj\u00ebshme, t\u00eb cilat, ka gjasa, lexuesit i kan\u00eb harruar.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00ebr shembull, viti 2001 me rritjen ekonomike n\u00eb mas\u00ebn 8.3%, shif\u00ebr kjo m\u00eb e lart\u00eb se sa potenciali i vler\u00ebsuar n\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb, reflekton investimet e larta private n\u00eb telekomunikacion nd\u00ebrsa rritja vitit 2002 prej 4.5% si dhe rritjet n\u00eb vitet pasardh\u00ebse, q\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha n\u00ebn potencialin prej 7%, reflektojn\u00eb para s\u00eb gjithash, kriz\u00ebn energjetike q\u00eb u shfaq p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb fund t\u00eb vitit 2001 dhe q\u00eb demonstroi edhe paaft\u00ebsin\u00eb e qeverive t\u00eb nj\u00ebpasnj\u00ebshme p\u00ebr ta zgjidhur k\u00ebt\u00eb kriz\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rritja ekonomike e vitit 2008, n\u00eb mas\u00ebn 7.5%, reflekton n\u00eb mas\u00eb t\u00eb konsiderueshme huamarrjen e lart\u00eb t\u00eb sektorit publik dhe transformimin e parave t\u00eb marra hua n\u00eb beton n\u00eb form\u00ebn e Rrug\u00ebs s\u00eb Kombit, autostrad\u00ebs prej vet\u00ebm 60 kilometra, e cila u nis t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtohej me vler\u00ebsim t\u00eb kostos prej 420 milion\u00eb eurosh dhe kushtoi m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 1 miliard\u00eb, shum\u00eb kjo q\u00eb ishte e pap\u00ebrballueshme p\u00ebr financat e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb n\u00eb at\u00eb koh\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Si\u00e7 dallohet, Shqip\u00ebria p\u00ebrjetoi vite shum\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebqija sa i p\u00ebrket rritjes ekonomike n\u00eb dekad\u00ebn q\u00eb pasoi, kur vendi u qeveris fillimisht nga koalicioni Berisha-Meta dhe pastaj, nga koalicioni Rama-Meta. Q\u00eb nga ajo koh\u00eb, vendi nuk ka njohur rritje ekonomike af\u00ebr apo mbi potencialin e vler\u00ebsuar prej 4.5% n\u00eb vit nd\u00ebrsa luhatja e fort\u00eb q\u00eb dallohet n\u00eb grafik n\u00eb vitet 2020-2022 \u00ebsht\u00eb shkaktuar nga pandemia COVID-19 n\u00eb vitin 2020 dhe nga rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbja pas pandemis\u00eb n\u00eb vitet 2021 dhe 2022. Ekonomia \u00ebsht\u00eb rikthyer n\u00eb n\u00ebnperformanc\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2023 dhe vijon t\u00eb rritet m\u00eb posht\u00eb se sa potenciali, pavar\u00ebsisht inflacionit t\u00eb lajmeve me sukses marramend\u00ebs n\u00eb sektorin e turizmit, lajme q\u00eb shfaqen \u00e7do dit\u00eb n\u00ebp\u00ebr mediat proqeveritare.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mungojn\u00eb miliarda<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Grafiku m\u00eb sip\u00ebr paraqet ekonomin\u00eb e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb si\u00e7 ajo ka ecur (vija ngjyr\u00eb blu), ekonomin\u00eb e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb si\u00e7 ajo do t\u00eb kishte ecur n\u00eb rast se do t\u00eb rritej n\u00eb p\u00ebrputhje me potencialin (vija ngjyr\u00eb e kuqe) dhe diferenca mes k\u00ebtyre t\u00eb dyjave, (vija e zbeht\u00eb e kuqe). Ekonomia e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb e matur me \u00e7mime konstante, sipas Fondit Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar pritet t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb mas\u00ebn 2.1 trilion\u00eb lek\u00eb n\u00eb fund t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti nd\u00ebrsa n\u00ebse do t\u00eb ishte rritur n\u00eb p\u00ebrputhje me potencialin, ajo do t\u00eb ishte 2.9 trilion\u00eb lek\u00eb. Diferenca mes k\u00ebtyre t\u00eb dyjave, 784 miliard\u00eb lek\u00eb, p\u00ebrb\u00ebn prodhimin e brendsh\u00ebm bruto t\u00eb munguar p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb performanc\u00ebs s\u00eb keqe n\u00eb qeverisjen e vendit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb shum\u00eb e st\u00ebrmadhe parash n\u00ebse krahasohet me \u00e7far\u00ebdolloj parametri ekonomik apo buxhetor. P\u00ebr shembull, n\u00ebse marrim parasysh se t\u00eb ardhurat e buxhetit t\u00eb shtetit jan\u00eb af\u00ebrsisht 30% e PBB-s\u00eb, nj\u00eb shum\u00eb e till\u00eb do t\u00eb sillte 235 miliard\u00eb lek\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura buxhetore, shif\u00ebr kjo q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb pothuajse e barabart\u00eb me t\u00eb gjith\u00eb fondin social t\u00eb vendit, ku p\u00ebrfshihen pensionet apo kujdesi sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cKeqalokim burimesh\u201d<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Shpjegimi m\u00eb i thjesht\u00eb i mundsh\u00ebm se pse ekonomia nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur me potencialin e pritsh\u00ebm mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet p\u00ebrmes teoris\u00eb s\u00eb keqalokimit t\u00eb burimeve. Roli i qeveris\u00eb n\u00eb ekonomi \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb heq\u00eb pengesat p\u00ebr prodhim ekonomik p\u00ebrmes nd\u00ebrhyrjeve ligjore apo infrastrukturore duke priorizuar p\u00ebrdorimin e parave t\u00eb taksapaguesve n\u00eb ato nd\u00ebrhyrje q\u00eb kan\u00eb kthim m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb. Korrupsioni dhe fryrja e kostove t\u00eb projekteve infrastrukturore, g\u00ebrryerja e fuqis\u00eb investuese t\u00eb buxhetit nga fryrja e paarsyeshme e administrat\u00ebs publike apo d\u00ebshtimi, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb keqmenaxhimit, t\u00eb kryerjes s\u00eb funksioneve baz\u00eb t\u00eb shtetit, t\u00eb tilla si dh\u00ebnia dhe garantimi i titujve t\u00eb pron\u00ebsis\u00eb, parandalimi apo luftimi i monopoleve, oligopoleve dhe praktikave penguese n\u00eb konkurrenc\u00eb jan\u00eb faktor\u00ebt q\u00eb e b\u00ebjn\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb t\u00eb \u201ckeqperformoj\u00eb\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pasojat e k\u00ebtyre problemeve t\u00eb mbledhura s\u00eb bashku mund t\u00eb vihen re te grafiku i par\u00eb: prodhim i brendsh\u00ebm bruto i munguar, vende pune t\u00eb pakrijuara dhe nj\u00eb ushtri me pensionist\u00eb q\u00eb jetojn\u00eb me mesatarisht 600 lek\u00eb n\u00eb dit\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mbetur prapa<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Grafiku m\u00eb sip\u00ebr paraqet ecurin\u00eb e ekonomive t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs Lindore, t\u00eb cilat FMN i ka grumbulluar n\u00eb grupin \u201cEvropa n\u00eb Rritje). T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat jan\u00eb n\u00eb Dollar\u00eb Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar\u00eb konstant\u00eb nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb imagjinare e p\u00ebrdorur nga FMN p\u00ebr t\u2019i b\u00ebr\u00eb vendet t\u00eb krahasueshme dhe shifrat paraqesin PBB p\u00ebr frym\u00eb. Disniveli mes grafik\u00ebve tregon disnivelin n\u00eb mir\u00ebq\u00ebnie reale mes qytetar\u00ebve t\u00eb vendeve p\u00ebrkat\u00ebse.<\/span><\/p>\n

Shqip\u00ebria \u00ebsht\u00eb rreshti blu i pest\u00eb nga posht\u00eb dhe konkurron p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur pozicionin e t\u00eb qenit vendi m\u00eb i varf\u00ebr me Bosnj\u00ebn, Ukrain\u00ebn, Kosov\u00ebn dhe Moldavin\u00eb. Maqedonia, Mali i Zi e Serbia jan\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm m\u00eb lart\u00eb se sa ne nd\u00ebrsa ekonomia me performanc\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb duket se \u00ebsht\u00eb ajo e Polonis\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>\n

Si\u00e7 dallohet, Shqip\u00ebria e nisi n\u00eb fakt n\u00eb vitin 2000 si ekonomia e dyt\u00eb m\u00eb e varf\u00ebr n\u00eb grup pas Moldavis\u00eb. Nga viti 2002, kur n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e FMN-s\u00eb u shfaq Kosova, Shqip\u00ebria u b\u00eb vendi i tret\u00eb m\u00eb i varf\u00ebr nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb vitin 2022, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, Ukraina ra posht\u00eb nivelit t\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb dhe ne u b\u00ebm\u00eb vendi i kat\u00ebrt m\u00eb i varf\u00ebr. N\u00eb vitin 2024, Bosnja dhe Herzegovina ra posht\u00eb nivelit t\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb. Perspektiva p\u00ebr t\u00eb kaluar ndonj\u00eb vend tjet\u00ebr \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb e larg\u00ebt. Vendi m\u00eb i af\u00ebrt, Maqedonia e Veriut, \u00ebsht\u00eb goxha larg.<\/span><\/p>\n\n

Grafiku i fundit paraqet ecurin\u00eb e ekonomive t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs Lindore si indeks. N\u00ebse secila prej ekonomive merret n\u00eb nivelin 100 n\u00eb vitin 2000, ecuria e tyre vit pas viti shfaqet n\u00eb grafik deri n\u00eb vitin 2025. K\u00ebshtu, Turqia rezulton se \u00ebsht\u00eb vendi me rritjen m\u00eb t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb n\u00eb raport me veten. Ekonomia turke \u00ebsht\u00eb sot 322% m\u00eb e madhe nga sa ishte n\u00eb vitin 2000. Shqip\u00ebria rezulton n\u00eb vend t\u00eb dyt\u00eb me 265%, pasuar nga Kosova me 261%. Rasti i Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb dhe i Kosov\u00ebs shpjegohet me avantazhin e prapambetjes, nj\u00eb ide themelore n\u00eb ekonomi, e cila tregon se sa m\u00eb i prapambetur t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb vend n\u00eb krahasim me vendet e tjera, aq m\u00eb i lart\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb potenciali p\u00ebr t\u2019u rritur. \/Marr\u00eb nga Reporter.al<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The post Analiza e BIRN\/ Miliardat q\u00eb mungojn\u00eb te rritja ekonomike e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb<\/a> appeared first on Lapsi.al<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nj\u00eb krahasim i ecuris\u00eb aktuale t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb 25 viteve t\u00eb fundit me potencialin e rritjes ekonomike t\u00eb vendit, si\u00e7 \u00ebsht\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar nga Fondi Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, tregon se n\u00eb nj\u00eb vit t\u00eb zakonsh\u00ebm, Prodhimi i Brendsh\u00ebm Bruto i vendit \u00ebsht\u00eb 7.8 miliard\u00eb euro m\u00eb pak nga sa duhej t\u00eb ishte, pasoj\u00eb e performanc\u00ebs s\u00eb keqe […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":23588,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23587","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23587"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23587\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23588"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zennihost.com\/test\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}